2014 - 2015 NBA Record
124 – 83 @ 60% for +32.7 Units
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#1: Orlando Magic -2
Orlando is 17-9 ATS on the road while the Knicks are 5-16 ATS at home. I believe these trends will hold tonight. Orlando is on a 3-game losing streak but those came against MEM, OKC, and @ DET. They were 8 – 4 ATS prior to those losses, and are playing pretty solid ‘ball’ right now. By comparison, the Knicks are off 2 straight wins, something they’ve done only once before this season, in the 2nd and 3rd games of the year. NY beat the Pelicans who were without Anthony Davis and Holiday, and then they beat the Sixers, the worst team in the league. Orlando is a better team than the Knicks and I believe they should have a strong shot for a win tonight. The big issue for the Magic is their complete lack of interior defense. They allowed Detroit to score 70 PIP in their last game and had zero answer for Monroe and Drummond. Well, Knicks don’t have any inside scorers, except Stoudemire, who only plays less than 20 minutes per game right now. New York is primarily a jump shooting team which is an excellent matchup for Orlando. Magic has a number of young perimeter players who are much more explosive than anything NY can put up on the court. In addition, Tobias Harris’ return to the lineup last game provides excellent scoring off the bench. Knicks are a bad team and typically bad teams struggle to sustain consistency from game to game. I’m banking on them failing to do so 3rd time in a row.
#2: Indiana Pacers +3
Dwyane Wade missed the shoot-around and is listed as questionable for today’s game. As fragile as Wade has been the last few years of his career, I got to assume that he’ll sit this one out. And even if he plays, he probably won’t be at 100%. Another potential big loss is that of Hassan Whiteside who was very limited during the shoot-around. He has the size and quickness to battle Hibbert on the inside and without that element Indiana should have a complete control of the paint in this game. George Hill is set to return for them and the Pacers are 3-2 in the games he’s played in so far, with one of the wins coming against the Heat. Indiana is 12-27 (31%) in the games Hill missed. Yeah I know this is a ridiculous comparison as 5-games is a useless sample size. But the point is that Hill is their starter, and his return is pretty big. Pacers should have the size advantage over Miami and depth-advantage as well if both Wade and Whiteside sit. In what should be an absolute ‘grinder’ of a game, I’ll grab the ‘healthier’ team with the points.
#3: Chicago Bulls +6.5
I backed the Bulls yesterday and in my write-up I indicated that Chicago was primed to play with a little more ‘fire’ against the Spurs. Well, they did, and they dominated. Of course you don’t accomplish anything unless you can sustain it, and I expect this Chicago team to sustain that effort tonight. Last night’s game against the Spurs was a blowout and nobody really played heavy minutes besides Taj (37). Tonight they’ll take on a Dallas team that lacks depth and is a pretty good matchup for the Bulls. Butler is big and quick enough to contain Monta Ellis. Chicago has the size and depth in the front-court (even without Noah) to match up with Chandler and Nowitzki. And Rose is too explosive for Rondo, who is an over-rated defender. My model has this game at +4.5 Chicago and there is enough value to back them tonight, even on a b2b.
#4: Charlotte Hornets +10
There’s no doubt that the Cavs are playing at a high level right now as a healthy LeBron and additions of Mozgov, JR Smith, and Shumpert (possibly back today) are paying off. Cleveland won 4 in a row and are on a roll. Of course the Hornets aren’t doing too poorly themselves, winning 8 of their last 9 games. They’ve done that mostly without Jefferson and with Kemba Walker missing a few as well. Both will play today. This is also a double-revenge spot for the Hornets, and their last chance this season to beat Cleveland. The Cavs have OKC coming to town on Sunday, so this might be a potential ‘look ahead’ spot for them. I’m sure the Hornets though have had this game circled on their calendars. My model has this game at -5 CLE, so there’s way too much value on the underdog. I do think Hornets play enough D (#10 in DefEff and #1 in DRB-rate) and limit their turnovers on offense (#1 in TO-rate) enough to stay close with the Cavs. Hopefully they bring the effort tonight to grind out a cover at least.
#5: Houston Rockets +2.5
Houston is a pretty good ‘bounce-back’ team crushing their opponent by 19, 12, 11, and 12 points following their last 4 losses. They are coming off a bad loss @ GSW, where they got absolutely dominated by the Dubs once again. Houston got swept by the Warriors, and that can’t sit well with this team. Expect a strong effort against the Suns squad that is on a 4-game winning streak. I don’t think Phoenix matches up well with Houston at all. The Suns like to run but so do the Rockets. The problem though is that the Rockets are a much bigger team than the Suns. That length could be a problem tonight. In addition, Suns rank 30th in defensive FT-rate, which is a major disadvantage against Houston. Expect Harden to attack the paint at will, get to the FT-line, and put up a number of easy points in this one. I will back a ‘better’ team here coming off a bad loss in what I believe is a pretty strong mismatch.
#6: Boston Celtics +7.5
Boston is on a b2b and playing @ Denver so of course the line is way over-inflated here. I have it at -2 DEN. The problem of course is that Denver is a shell of their former selves. They are not a very good team, evidenced by their inconsistency. This team lost 5 of 6 games prior to going on a 5-game winning streak and are now in the middle of a 4-game losing one. Denver seems to be a very streaky team and I’m hoping they keep their streak going tonight. Or at the very least don’t win by more than 7! In any case, the value on Boston is enough to make a play. But of course the fact that Ty Lawson was arrested this morning (before 2 AM) and charged with a DUI provides an even bigger edge in Boston’s favor. Lawson makes this Nuggets team go and if he’s out, that’s a huge advantage for the Celtics. Even if he plays somehow, how effective will he be after spending hours in the police department, getting booked, bailed out, released, etc.? I’m not an expert on DUI’s so no clue what that whole process entails but I’m sure it took time to get everything processed and was probably really late in the morning before Lawson got home. Boston have a deep roster and they divide up minutes evenly between 8/9 players typically. Playing in Denver won’t be as difficult as for a team that is “starting-five” heavy. Lots of value here on the road team and if Lawson sits, then this would be my favorite play of the night.
Good Luck