2014 - 2015 NBA Record
56 – 42 @ 0% for +9.8 Units
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#1: Toronto Raptors +3 (1st Half Only)
#2: Dallas Mavericks +3
#3: New York Knicks +6.5
#4: Sacramento Kings +2 (1st Half Only)
Good Luck
Breakdowns
Tue 11/09:
TOR @ CLE -6
These two teams faced off last Friday in TOR, as the Cavs won 105 – 91. The average lead throughout the game was +7.4 CLE, so it was a pretty dominant performance throughout. Today, both teams are on a b2b with both coming off wins. Cleveland dominated the short-handed Nets on the road, while Toronto had to grab their win at home in OT. Yesterday, the ‘Royal Family’ attended the Cavs/Nets game in Brooklyn, and there was a lot of hoopla and excitement around it. After the game, LeBron exchanged jerseys and even brought them cupcakes. With all of those distractions yesterday, could there be a bit of a lack of focus early on in this rematch with the Raptors? One thing we do know is that line-value is purely in Toronto’s favor here. They were -4.5 home favorites in the last meeting, and even if you account a point or so for the ‘fatigue factor’ in that one, Toronto should be closer to +3 than +6 tonight. And that’s what they were at home in the first meeting of the season on 11/22.
Lean: TOR +6
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POR @ DET +7.5
The Pistons played well against OKC on Sunday, holding them to only 96 points and coming very close to finally breaking their losing streak. Unfortunately, they lost once again, and I’m wondering how big of a letdown that was. Detroit lost to PHI in OT at home the previous day, and came out with a better effort against OKC, a team that is still jelling, yet DET failed to get it done once again. Tonight they’ll face one of the best teams in the league and they could struggle here. Portland ranks 4th in DefEff and 3rd in eFG%-allowed. That could be a major issue for the Pistons offense which is 29th in OffEff and 30th in eFG%. In addition, the Blazers rank 5th in DRB (defensive rebounding) rate and 7th in defensive FT-rate, all indicators that it could be really tough for the Pistons to score ‘easy’ points in this game.
Lean: POR -7.5
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MIL @ OKC -10
The Bucks are 8-4 ATS on the road but OKC is actually 7-2 ATS at home. Even without KD and RW, OKC has played extremely well at home this year, like they typically do every year. With Durant back, this team is 0-3 ATS though, and indication that the bookmakers have been over-valuing them. Of course tonight’s game, is Durant’s first home game of the season. Are we going to see a ‘show’ out of him? Possibly. Milwaukee though got smoked by Dallas a few days ago, so I’d expect a better effort out of them. Still, something is strange with this line. OKC seems way over-valued once again. Clearly the bookmakers expect a very strong showing out of them at home, though the line-value is in Milwaukee’s favor here.
Lean: MIL +10
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NYK @ NOP -7
Don’t look now, but the Knicks are on a 3 game winning streak…ATS-winning streak to be exact. They are still on their 8-game losing streak, but are 5-3 ATS, and continue to lose a ton of close games. They lost by 3 to CLE, by 1 to CHA the following night, and by 4 to POR. Now they’ll take on an inconsistent Pelicans squad. New Orleans is 4-7 in their last 11 games, and haven’t won two consecutive games since earlier in November, when they hosted LAL and MIN in two consecutive home games. Their biggest issue has been on the defensive end, were they’ve allowed 99+ points in 11 of the last 15 games. NY can stretch this defense vertically as they have a number of long-range options from the perimeter, which will make it difficult on the Pelicans defensively. NO ranks bottom-10 in 3PT defense, while the Knicks are top-10 in 3PT % on the season. I would expect another close game for NY here against an inconsistent Pelicans squad.
Lean: NYK +7
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DAL @ MEM -3.5
Dallas is 4-1 ATS as an underdog while Memphis is 7-9 ATS as a favorite. Mavs are also 6-1 ATS against Memphis over the last few seasons and were 4-0 ATS against the Grizzlies last year. The issue could be that Dallas plays at a pretty fast pace, they move the ball well, and they shoot a lot of 3’s. Hmmm. That’s similar to both San Antonio and Houston, two teams that have beaten the Grizz this month already. The Mavs also rank 1st in TO-rate offensively, so they might not be as susceptible to Grizzlies’ on the ball pressure as some other teams. I think Dallas has the depth and the offense to cause issues for this Memphis team and I’d expect a close game here. Vince Carter faces his old mates for the first time in this one by the way.
Lean: DAL +3.5
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MIA @ PHX -4.5
The Suns are on a b2b here and they’re 1-4 ATS in such spots this season and 1-4 SU. Today’s game is even tougher, as Phoenix is in a 4in5 spot, and that’s having played an OT game on the road last night. Bledsoe logged 45 minutes while Dragic played 39. Miami was off yesterday, but that’s after taking the last 4 games off, as they’ve been dominated by DD’s in each, losing by an average of over 17 points per game. Losing 4 straight in that manner, and facing a fatigued Suns squad, I would expect a strong effort from the Heat. They rank 5th in FT-rate offensively, while Suns are dead last on defense in the same metric. I would expect Miami to get to the FT-line tonight. In addition, the Heat rank 5th in defensive TO-rate, and in a ‘fatigue’ spot for the Suns, I’d expect their turnovers to go up. Isaiah Thomas is once again listed as questionable, but he said that he wasn’t able to sprint or to cut yet yesterday. I doubt he plays. I think Miami has a good shot to keep this one close.
Lean: MIA +4.5
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SAS @ UTA +9
Tony Parker is out but that might not matter against the hapless Jazz. Utah is on a b2b and have now lost 9 in a row. Kanter might get suspended for throwing his mouthpiece into the stands yesterday and I’m not sure if Ginobili will suit up after sitting out on Saturday.
PASS
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SAC @ LAL -4
For only the 2nd time all season, LA will be a listed ‘favorite’ in a game. They face a Kings team that is on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Still, this feels like to many points for LA to lay, even without Cousins in there for Sacramento. If you bet LA, you are paying a premium to back a really bad team. In the long-run that’s a losing proposition.
Lean: SAC +4
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