If you like under, you need a 23 point drop from last year.
Thats happened 6 times since 1982 and only twice since 1994.
It hasn't happened in 13 years, when there was a 23 point drop from 285 (02') to 262 (03')
A 40 point or more increase has only happened 3 times since 1984 (when it jumped from 255 to 299). 2001 (242) to 2002 (285).
And last year when it jumped from 321 to 369. The biggest jump ever.
So the UNDER players are in a RARE HISTORIC SPOT THIS YEAR. The last time there was a 40 point increase there was exactly a 23 point drop the next year!
The other time in 1984 the TOTAL DROPPED 30 THE NEXT YEAR.
The total has dropped by at least 23 every year after a 40 point increase.
THIS IS A STRONG CASE FOR THE UNDR IMO.
(besides 1973 (188) to 1974 (277) a complete anomaly. Im throwing 1973 out. Apparently the players in 1973 were up all night before the game, thats the lowest total in history going back to 1951!