2014 - 2015 NBA Record
38 – 23 @ 0% for +12.7 Units
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#1: Phoenix Suns -2
#2: Miami Heat +1
#3: Toronto Raptors +3
#4: Sacramento Kings -9
#5: Dallas Mavericks -3.5
#6: Washington Wizards -3
#7: Utah Jazz +2.5
Good Luck
Breakdowns
Sat, 11/22:
PHX @ IND +2
The Suns are on a b2b, 3in4, and playing their 5th road game in the last 8 days. They are 0-3 SU/ATS on the 2nd of a b2b this year but those games were @UTA, MEM, and @LAC, all better teams than the Pacers. At the same time, it’s important to note that yesterday’s win @ Philly was very easy, as nobody logged more than 24 minutes. Now that’s what I call ‘minutes management’. Suns are a better team, and even though Indiana is 4-1 in their last 5 games, I see them struggling against a team like the Suns. Indiana’s 4 wins in this run came against UTA, CHA, MIA, and CHI all teams that rank in the bottom-half in Pace this season. The Pacers rank 29th, with only the Knicks playing at a slower pace. So clearly facing those 4 teams had Indiana in their comfort zone and they played well enough to beat them. Their one loss in this 5-game span came against Denver at home, when the Nuggz blew them out 108-87. Denver ranks 5th in Pace and has a star PG in Ty Lawson who 11 points and 11 assists against them. By comparison, Suns rank 4th in Pace and have three star PG’s in Bledsoe, Dragic, and Thomas. In addition, Indiana has struggled against WAS (twice), BOS, MIL, ATL, and MEM this year, all teams that have dynamic PG”s playing at a high level right now. In their last 4 wins they faced Utah’s Trey Burke who is still learning the NBA game, Miami’s underwhelming PG”s in Norris and Chalmers, Bulls had old man Hinrich as theirs, and Charlotte have a struggling Kemba Walker. I think tonight could be a very tough matchup for the Pacers.
Lean: PHX -2
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MIA @ ORL -1
Holy cow, Miami is an ‘underdog’ against Orlando?!?! Oh wait, LeBron is gone, Wade is hurt already, and the Magic seem to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year. Of course all those factors aside, today’s spot favors the Heat. They are coming off a humiliating loss on national TV to the Clippers, they were off yesterday, and Orlando is playing on a b2b and 3in4 while needing a monster comeback in the 4th quarter @ Charlotte last night. Harris logged 40 mins, Vucevic 35, and Fournier 33. Magic had 12 assists on 39 made FG’s last night, for a pathetic AST-rate of 31%. Clearly, a lot of individual effort was needed yesterday to muster up a win as this team just kept making contested shot after contest shot in the 4th quarter last night. If they play like that today, Miami should have a great shot at an “upset”.
Lean: MIA +1
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PHI @ NYK -11
Whoa, the Knicks are double-digit favorites?!? Well, actually according to my numbers, the spread is very accurate. Yes, Philly is really that bad. In addition, keep in mind that NY is getting a huge piece back tonight….no, I’m not talking about useless Bargnani who actually got hurt in practice yesterday so his return is postponed anyways. I’m talking about Jose Calderon, one of the best shooters and distributors in the league. His presence should solidify NY’s backcourt and will provide a lot more open looks for their shooters. Still, this is his 1st game back so the expectations should maybe be tempered. The Knicks are though in a similar spot as the Heat. NY is coming off an embarrassing blowout loss, they had a few days off, and now they’re taking on a Philly team that is on a b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Of course the difference is that Philly was NOT involved in a massive 4th quarter comeback yesterday, and their “key” (not sure I can even use that word with this team) players actually were rested yesterday with no one playing more than 28 mins. Sixers are dying for a win and I’m sure a lot of their players have had this game circled on their calendars as a ‘winnable’ one. I’d expect a strong effort from them here, which makes laying DD’s with the 2nd worst team in all of basketball virtually impossible.
PASS
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TOR @ CLE -3
I guess it’s going to take a little more time for the Cavs to jell then anyone expected. They’ll be looking to avoid losing a 4th straight game, though taking on the best team in the East won’t be easy. Both teams are on a b2b and 3in4 spots, but I think the ‘fatigue’ levels could be different for each. Toronto played at home yesterday, their 7th straight home game. They also destroyed the Bucks, at one point leading by 50+ points, so there was no need for much effort in that one and nobody even logged 30 mins for the Raptors. By comparison, Cavs were on the road last night, and have now played 3 straight games (DEN, SAS, @ WAS) were maximum effort was needed from all of their key players. Just last night Irving logged 41 mins, LeBron 39, and Love 31. Today won’t be any different, because Cavaliers’ bench is totally useless. Cleveland is dead last in the NBA with 21.9 PPG from their bench. By comparison, Toronto is 8th with 36.6 PPG from theirs. During a long grueling season, with b2b’s and 3in4 spots, bench depth is critical and this is a key factor in Toronto’s favor tonight. In addition, the Raptors registered 27 assists last night while Cleveland only had 13. Clearly one team is playing ‘team basketball’ right now while the other one is struggling. Combine these factors with the fact that TOR is the ‘better’ team right now and pure line-value is greatly in their favor in this one.
Lean: TOR +3
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SAC @ MIN +9
“It’s going to be a tough game. Three games in four nights, and (the Kings) have been here resting and watching us play.” These were the words of Minnesota’s head coach Flip Saunders as his team prepares to take on the Kings. To me, it sounds like he’s already making excuses for the inevitable, instead of showing some passion and having confidence in his young guys. Yes, Wolves are on a b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, while the Kings were off yesterday. Yes, they got dominated on the boards by the Spurs 53 to 34. Yes, they allowed 54 PIP and for San Antonio to shot 62% from the 3PT line. Yes, all these factors make it really difficult to believe that Minnesota could win today’s game. But the fact that Wolves’ coach doesn’t see much hope, makes me believe that his players won’t play very hard today either.
Lean: SAC -9
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DAL @ HOU +3
Dallas played @ CHA on Monday, then @ WAS on Wednesday, flew back home to take on the Lakers last night, and now to HOU for a b2b and 3in4 spot. Houston has been at home since Monday, and have had 2-days off prior to today’s game. So why is Dallas the favorite? Well, because Dwight Howard is doubtful and most likely won’t play today. That’s a huge loss, especially since Terrence Jones is out as well. At the same time, Dallas beat the Lakers by almost 40-point yesterday, so it’s not like their key players had to play major minutes. All starters were rested in the 4th quarter. What is interesting is that against the same Lakers team, Houston lost 98-92 at home just a few days earlier. So now it makes sense why the Mavs are favorite on the road. Houston lacks inside presence without Howard and Jones, while in addition their depth is non-existent. Dallas ranks 4th in bench production with 40.1 PPG while Houston is 29th with 23.8. At the same time let’s remember that Chandler Parsons is making his return to Houston for the first time, and it’s not like he left on the best of terms. I’m sure he’ll really want to get a win tonight.
Lean: DAL -3
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WAS @ MIL +3
Huge win by the Wizards at home last night as they dominated the Cavs. Will we see a let-down tonight @ MIL? Both teams are playing on a b2b and while Washington is in a 3in4 spot, the Bucks are in a 4in5 scenario. The issue for the Bucks is that they’re one of the most TO-prone teams in the league, ranking 27th in TO-rate offensively. Wizards are 4th in defensive TO-rate and in a fatigue spot, this could very well be the difference in today’s game.
Lean: WAS -3
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BKN @ SAS -10
Both teams are coming off wins yesterday, though Nets needed to comeback to beat OKC while the Spurs had a very easy dismantling of the Wolves. Both are on a b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6. Garnett is already declared out for today (rest) and I’m wondering if the Spurs might rest a player or two as well. Of course due to the blowout yesterday, nobody played major minutes for San Antonio. Regardless, the spread is a bit inflated in this one and the Nets have recently shown an ability to stay within double-digits against some of the better teams in the West (@ PHX, @ GSW, @ POR..etc).
Lean: BKN +10
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NO @ UTA +2.5
Both teams played on the road last night with both getting dominated in blowout losses. Of course this is also NO’s 4th straight road game, which is never easy. The Jazz have played well at home, losing to HOU and DAL, two elite teams, but beating CLE, PHX, and OKC. The Pellies are only 2-4 SU/ATS on the road with an average margin of -6.8. Asik is expected to miss another game after straining his back in yesterday’s warmups, and I think Utah will have a much easier time attacking the basket without him in there. Remember, this year the Pelicans rank 21st in DefEff with a 107.5 mark. Last year, they ranked 27th with a 110.1 mark. The year-over-year improvement is primarily due to Asik, as Davis hasn’t been the dominant defensive force on his own. Without Asik tonight, I think Pellicans will struggle defensively once again.
Lean: UTA +2.5