Missouri better be ready for Zac Robinson and the explosive Cowboys offense on Saturday.
There's another week of exciting college football on deck and that means more upsets and BCS busters. Every Tuesday I've been looking at some underdogs that have a shot to bite on Saturday and this week I think we have some really good spots to take the points. As always, these aren't actual picks, just opinions I'm posting to get some feedback.
Oklahoma State +13.5Anyone who read my blogs this summer knows how much I love Zac Robinson and this Oklahoma State squad. But I haven't really been able to bet them a lot this year because the oddsmakers have loved them too, making OSU big favorites in every game after Week 1. And while the Cowboys have covered all of their games this season, I'm not comfortable laying 24 and 27 points with teams not named USC. But here we have OSU in a great spot. Missouri was sky high last week to beat the Huskers in Lincoln and now they have to turn around and face an explosive Cowboys attack that averages a Navy-like 315 yards rushing per game. This will be Oklahoma State's first true road game this season but they certainly have the balanced offense to give a suspect Missouri defense fits. If this line climbs to 14 or 14.5, it will be hard to lay off. Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Arkansas +19Has anyone else realized that this Auburn team really stinks? They ran like seven different offenses last week against Vandy. It's clear to me that the Tigers new spread offense hasn't caught on and now the team has no identity on that side of the ball. At some points last week I was trying to figure out what they were even doing on offense. Arkansas isn't any good but they showed some spunk against Florida in a game they should have covered if not for a late Gators touchdown when they were running up the score. The bottom line here is I think Auburn is all done, while the Hogs are bad but still trying. I'll tell you right now, don't be surprised if the Tigers lose this game outright and pack it in for the rest of the season. Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Colorado +14Kansas is a vastly overrated team right now. The Jayhawks can still score points but their defense can't stop anyone. The Buffs offense hasn't taken off yet this year but I've been pleasantly surprised with their defense, which is much improved from a season ago. The problem for the Buffs is they just can't run the football right now. The good news for Colorado is that Kansas has had trouble getting its ground game going this year as well. The Jayhawks have played two BCS schools this season (South Florida and Iowa State) and their defense has been lit up both times. Expect that to happen again this week in what should be a close shootout. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Wisconsin +5I really like this spot for Wisconsin coming off a close home loss to Ohio State. Normally this would be a possible letdown for the Badgers but not with undefeated Penn State coming to town. I had Ohio State last week but I thought Wisconsin was the better team once the game kicked off. Terrelle Pryor just made a couple of plays late in the game and that was the difference. I love this John Clay kid at running back and I can't wait to see more of him. This is going to be a real tough game for the fighting JoePa's and while they may pull it out, I think it's going to be a close one. Remember, Michigan and Ohio State are on deck and those teams are still much bigger names to 20-year old kids than boring old Wisconsin. With this line climbing, I'll wait until later in the week to see what I can get. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Check out Mark Lawrence's latest blog post for more on this matchup.
Colorado State +15The Rams are actually undefeated at home this year and haven't been as bad as I thought they would be this season. Even in a 42-7 loss at Cal, Colorado State played the Bears close in the stat book but a blocked punt and interception for touchdowns put the Rams in an early 14-0 hole that they couldn't dig themselves out of. TCU has a great defense but they could be without starting quarterback Andy Dalton for the second straight week. I don't know if I can pull the trigger against TCU in this spot but the Rams look like they will be a strong home dog the rest of the season. Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Thanks Hog. Two outright winners but of course, the one I gave out was Colorado. Unbelievable. lol I've seen all I need to see from Penn State. I wouldn't advise to go against them right now if the spread was 50. I would advise to blindly fade Auburn and Clemson for the rest of the season. Both of those teams are done.
Great call on Arkansas Tommy. Outright baby!
Thanks Tony. I always enjoy your opinions, especially on the Big 12 games. Good luck this weekend.
I like them all, especially Colorado (see My Big 12 Report in the forum) I am not sold on Wisconsin after 2 poor efforts and never thought I would see them lose 3 in a row, but neither team as good as advertised, so perhaps a 3 pointer one way or the other.
AUBURN IS OVERRATED BUT ARKANSAS IS BAD! That being said, I would never lay 19 to an SEC opponent with Auburn, their offense sucks....Just my thoughts, and as always Tommy, awesome angles and work.
I actually like SMU this week Chuck. I can't give you one good reason why. I just have a hunch that's going to be like a 52-38 kind of game. Tulsa is known to lay some clunkers on the road and it could be time for one of those. I'm looking at that game myself.
You are right Chuck. But in all honesty, can we call that a real game? lol UCLA is a tough team for me to get a handle on. I had them last week but that's just because they played Washington State and the spread wasn't 35. Could be some value there for sure.
How about your MUSTANGS +25 at HOME?
Great Read. Okie St did OPEN at Wash. St.
What about UCLA +18.....DUCKS Gotta have a TROJAN Hangover!
Footballer, If they don't have the quarterback to run the spread, then why start running that offense in the first place? Sounds like a terrible coaching decision to me. That team is lost. I still think they will be lucky to win this week. Good luck.
TR, keep doing that homework ! Auburn got away from what was working-----RUNNING THE BALL, and that got 'em beat at Vandy. Tubbs and Franklin are working the hell out of 'em this week, so look for AU to run right at Arkie and win by 10 or so. AU can play some D.
Auburn doesn't have the QB to run the spread----ala Michigan.
Great read again Tommy...I agree with all of them...Thanks..............