Sam Bradford and the Sooners better not overlook an improved Baylor team this Saturday.
Last week the wacky world of college football was in full effect, as three top five teams bit the dust. As we listen to the talking heads constantly refer to how shocked they are when this happens, it's becoming perfectly clear to me that in today's college football, the days of betting the huge favorite when BCS schools get together is becoming harder and harder. Last week I previewed some dogs (Including Ole Miss) that I thought had a chance to stay close. This week I found some more dogs that could be ready to bite on Saturday. Keep in mind that these aren't actual selections, just some thoughts on certain games.
Iowa +8.5I like Mark Dantonio and this Michigan State squad but this is a bad matchup for them this week. The Hawkeyes only allow 91 yards per game on the ground and I think they will be able to slow down Javon Ringer. If that's the case, Iowa has a great chance to cover this number. Last week the Hawkeyes were upset by a good Northwestern squad but overall, I don't see the Spartans with their suspect defense being more than a touchdown favorite over Iowa in what should be a close game.
Duke +14Don't look now but the Dukies are actually looking like a real football team. The Blue Devils will give up yards on the ground but they have the huge advantage of already playing Navy this season - Paul Johnson's former team who still runs the same offensive system. Duke only allowed 207 yards rushing to the Naval Academy, which bodes well for them this week against Tech. I like Johnson and I'm not surprised he's having success in his first season with the Rambling Wreck. However, I don't think they are ready to be a two touchdown favorite against a suddenly competitive Blue Devils squad. Also, Duke has lost only one game this year (Northwestern) by just four points.
Stanford +7.5This line should be about 3.5 in my opinion but because Notre Dame beat a saggy Purdue squad, you are getting tremendous value here. Listen, I've watched the Irish play. They still stink. I'm not saying they won't win this game at home but making them over a touchdown favorite against an improving Stanford squad is ludicrous in my opinion. From what I've seen, Jimmy Clausen still makes terrible decisions when pressured and Stanford blitzes as much as any team in the Pac 10. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cardinal go into South Bend and win this game outright.
Toledo +7.5The Rockets were in a terrible spot last week and ended up getting upset by Florida International at home. But that game was sandwiched between a heartbreaking loss to Fresno State and a clash with MAC heavyweight Ball State. I like Ball State quarterback Nate Davis but he's going to miss star receiver Dante Love in this game. The Rockets still have a potent offense and the stat that alarms the most about Ball State is: They allow 224 rushing yards per game. Teams that allow over 200 yards a game on the ground aren't profitable favorites, especially when facing an offense that can take advantage of it like I think Toledo will.
Baylor +27The Sooners are the best team I've seen this year but with Texas on deck, Baylor could pose some problems this week. The Bears have really started to flourish in Art Briles' spread offense, especially freshman quarterback Robert Griffin. Griffin is a nightmare for defenses and is on the verge of being one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country. Now, I'm not saying that Baylor is going to upset the mighty Sooners but OU hasn't played one sloppy game yet this season. The Bears are well coached and can score points. I think they have a good shot at covering this number. On another note, they can't make a total big enough for me to lay off the Over in this game.
These are some of the underdogs I'm looking at for Saturday. Which dogs do you think will be biting this weekend?
I like Kansas State GF. I started liking them more and more after I wrote this. I think that's a great pick. Good luck.
I am looking at Kentucky, S. Carolina, K.St & Vandy Tommy.
Thanks Jeff. I guessed which one is your play and if it's who I think it is, you won't even need the points in my opinion. Good luck.
I picked one of those teams listed as my upset of the week - Great stuff Tommy
Also Steeltown, the "Florida has a big game against LSU next week" angle is now moot seeing that the Gators lost their last game. It now makes this week's game just as big because they can't afford another loss. Normally this would be a great place for a look-ahead but not with Florida losing last week. Good luck.
Thanks TR... I'm gonna go with my initial read and take the Gators
The Gators are far from out of the National Title picture. If they run the table, there is a good chance they could be playing for all the marbles. Remember, at the very least if OU and Missouri were to go undefeated, one would get knocked out in the Big 12 Title game. I see around the Internet a lot of people looking to fade Florida and USC this week but I would advise against that. Those two teams are far from out of it and I have a hunch both roll on Saturday. Good luck.
Tommy what do you think of Arkansas +25? I honestly see no reason to take the Hogs, but that number seems too high at home and Florida has a big game against LSU next week.
I like Miami Trent. I think Ponder stinks. The Canes are young but I think they have talent. I can't say the same for the Seminoles. I just don't see it. Good luck.
Tommy....Who do you like in the FSU-Miami game?
Yes, I actually forgot to put that one in Chuck. It was on my list and I passed it by on accident. That could certainly be a low scoring, defensive battle. I see something like a 24-13 Tide win in that game.
Kentucky +16' catching Bama off their Big Win?