Analysis:
Tanaka has given up three or more runs in six of his eight starts this season, and the Rays hit him hard back in early April. So, they Rays have been hitting everyone hard, scoring five or more runs in six of their last seven games. New York's pen had another melt down last night, and has had more blown saves than actual saves on the road this season - and again without Chapman. The Rays used all but Jumbo Diaz and Chase Whitley out of the pen last night - the Rays games are 14-9 to the over at home this season (unusual) and they've played 10 of the last 11 to the over, and I don't think that changes this afternoon. Andriese throws a lot of pitches and only twice has made it through the 7th inning (too many walks) - so, I don't see that "over" trend changing today. The Rays are just hot, just like the Giants, but are at home and underdogs. Done with that one.
Other games:
I'm not laying -200 on the road (Washington) with any pitcher that doesn't have a bullpen per se, and against an opponent that knows them.
Arrieta and the Cubs aren't worth -210. I'm sorry, but not "right now." I do think we'll see runs here, but obviously the total isn't up yet.
The Pirates almost look a little too easy to me - in part because Nova threw a lot of pitches (for him) last week. But, his WHIP of 1.03 is hard to ignore. Velasquez had two 100+ pitch games, something he didn't do often last season until very late, and he was crushed. So, I think he's been over used for a young pitcher and that's every reason more to take the Pirates. The Phillies pen has not been very good, and Michael Saunders is questionable.
I don't like that Reds game with that odd line movement. I lean Rockies in spite of it, and don't think the Reds win a low scoring game. The weather isn't perfect, but I don't see both teams not getting four runs and suspect this will go to 9.5 - it may not close there, but I think it will.
I do like the Cardinals, again. Sorry, but Samardzija and two 114 pitch-count games against a team that at least individually has hit him pretty well, and I can make a good case for St. Louis. The total is shading down from 8, but I am not buying that one. Slight lean to the over, not trusting either bullpen at this point.
The money is clearly on the Padres and under in that game - that's probably one to stay away from, for me. Ray can go either way - but I won't buy into the theory that the Padres were embarrassed and will come out swinging. That's football. Baseball is totally different that way.
It's interesting that the Dodgers/Marlins total is going up with Straily and Urias on the mound. That would probably not be square money because the novice better knows that Straily has been pitching well, Urias is solid, the Marlins are struggling to hit, and Dodgers Stadium is not a hitters' park. So, I suppose I could lemming that one (the over) as making no sense. As far as which side is going to score all the runs, I have no clue.
They're liking the Astros for the rebound here, and I am not so sure about that. Clevinger is sneaky good at times and Fiers is sneaky bad at times. I will gladly take the Cleveland bullpen more often than not, so there may be some value on the Indians. Both teams are very streaky, and I wonder if Houston's long winning streak that was snapped at home last night doesn't turn the table for a game or three.
I don't want much to do with the Twins/Royals game. Both starters are way too unpredictable -
Boston goes overnight from Sale at -190 to Pomeranz at -105 (or so). I can't trust Pomeranz after he left his last start with a tricep issue, and Manaea will either implode or be great. If the throws strikes, he's great. Oakland has some momentum/confidence after last night - so this one has "IDK" written on it for me. Perhaps the F5 under would be doable since both pens suck - the park certainly warrants it.
I don't understand how Gausman can be such a prohibitive favorite.
It's hard to know which Verlander we'll see. He's handled the Rangers individually - but that may not mean much because Texas has won ten straight (stay on the hot team?) and their bullpen has been very good. But, Griffins' better games have come primarily against weaker hitting teams. Cabrera is supposed to play but V-Mart is not. The Tigers pen has been better, but still not one I want to trust. I can make a reasonable case for the Rangers RL, TBH.
The way Seattle's bullpen has been (7.25 ERA the last week) there is no chance of laying that price, even against Pelfrey. I can make a reasonable case for taking the White Sox RL and the over, since the White Sox pen has been roughed up lately, meaning that for the game to stay under it might take BOTH pitchers being good, and I just don't see it.
There's a** load of money that says the Angels are winners, and that may be a decent lemming play because it makes no sense, other than the fact that the Mets pen isn't something I want to back. I'll have to look more into that one.