In the coming weeks, I'll post 8-10 spring game notes that I take after watching each spring game plus give you some actionable advice on those particular teams. For selfish reasons, I won't release all 50 or so teams that I breakdown because I would prefer not to devalue the early off-season betting markets with each team. The reason being is that I usually find the off-season CFB markets to be the softest and I usually make my biggest bets of the year in the CFB off-season (see my ND Week 1 MAX Bet).
With that in mind, each and every spring I try to watch as many spring games as I can (around 50 of them are televised) plus I like attend a few of them live. While many pundits argue that you can't get much out of a spring game, I beg to differ. I'll concede that it's tough gauging just how good a team will be when watching a spring practice/game. Particularly when an offense is putting up significant yards and points, you have to ask: Is this good offense or bad defense that I'm watching here? However, what I usually look for when breaking down a spring game or practice, is individual players and/or individual positions that "flash" (i.e. show me elite or unique athletic ability and talent).
In my 6 years at Northcoast Sports and Phil Steele Publications, I was the lead analyst as far as team recruiting rankings, high school player rankings, college player rankings with relation to several national awards (Jim Thorpe, Nagurski, Lombardi, etc) and also was in charge of the NFL draft player rankings. Therefore, I usually have a solid gauge in determining what player and positions stand out from the rest.
Finally, in these spring games you can usually determine what kind of offensive and defensive schemes they are going to run for the upcoming season and if they are changing and/or tweaking them (Ex: moving to an up-tempo offense, maybe inserting heavy blitz packages on defense, etc). This is invaluable when it comes the totals' betting markets.
Colorado Spring Game Notes:
-Colorado is coming off a 10-4 season, which was their first winning season since 2005 and they made their first bowl game since 2007. The Buffaloes went 8-1 in Pac-12 play last year (regular season), which remarkably exceeded their 5 Pac-12 wins combined from 2011-2015.
-Head coach Mike MacIntyre was named National Coach of the Year by several award committees including the Bobby Dodd award which is father won at Vanderbilt back in 1982.
-2017 Captains: TE George Frazier, OL Jeromy Irwin, RB Philip Lindsay, LB Derek McCartney, DB Afolabi Lagunda and LB Rick Gamboa.
-This was the first time since 1995 that Colorado had all 32 NFL teams attend their pro day. That's a sign that the program is growing talent wise but also a sign that the Buffaloes are losing a lot of talent this year.
-Head coach MacIntyre is excited about his OL. Said they looked bigger, stronger. Also their best incoming freshman recruit is 4-star Jake Moretti from nearby Arvada, CO (a Top 100 recruit nationally).
-Co-OC and WR coach Darrin Chiaverini is a rising star in the coaching community. He will be a head coach very soon.
-The Buffaloes lose 4-year starting QB Sefo Liufau (9,746 career pass yards) but Steven Montez got 3 starts last year and has separated himself as the No. 1 QB. Montez in his first career start last year at Oregon became the first Colorado player to have 300+ passing yards and 100+ rushing yards in the same game.
-While Shay Fields and Devin Ross are the leaders at WR, keep an eye on Kabion Ento who runs a sub 4.4-40 and has a 40+'' vertical leap
-On defense, the player that really stood out was No. 9 NT Javier Edwards. He's an incoming JUCO that is 6-3 350. He will be a vital piece to the Buffaloes 3-4 defensive scheme that loses a lot of key players on the DL. Edwards won't be an every down player but certainly is one to watch this season and in an upcoming NFL Draft.
Early Actionable Advice: I'll be looking to bet more OVERS in Colorado games this year. They have 9 starters back on what could-be an explosive offense that averaged 31 ppg a year ago. They are expected to run a faster tempo (more plays usually leads to more points). They have a dual-threat QB in Steven Montez who has a big arm and got some extended action last year (3 starts) with Sefo Liufau not 100% healthy. Colorado also has one of the better small backs in the country in Phillip Lindsay who has 4,029 career all-purpose yards (3rd most in Colorado history). The Buffaloes have a very deep and talented WR corps (best unit on the team in my opinion) that includes 4 returning players who all had 30+ receptions and 400+ yards a year ago. The OL should also be improved with 4 starters back.
As good as I expect the offense to be, I think the defense will take a step back this season. They lose 8 starters from a defense that allowed just 21.7 ppg a year ago and were 2nd in the Pac-12 in total defense (342.5 ypg). They run a 3-4 scheme and lost a great DC in Jim Leavitt to Oregon. Some of the bigger losses were LBs Jimmie Gilbert and Kenneth Olugbode along with DBs Chidobe Awuze, Ahkello Witherspoon and Tedric Thompson.
With an improved offense and a defense that could struggle early with their inexperience, the OVER could be the way to go and I expect we'll catch some early value as the UNDER cashed in 8 of Colorado's last 10 games.