We've got a Triple Dime GOW that's All-Access - and will add the free play at some point. A nice sweep on Thursday and another nice 2* winner with Dayton on Friday - we move on.
546 Texas Tech 6.0 (-120) Pinnacle vs 545 Kansas
St.Marys/Gonzaga: The Zags clearly playing for the #1 seed in the Tournament, and this is indeed the only potential roadblock, aside from a Conference Tournament meeting - last season the Gaels won both regular season games then lost in the Conference Tournament, this season Gonzaga destroyed them at home. The "value" will be with St. Mary's - but a team that relies so heavily on three's and doesn't get to the line is tough to take against, well, anyone. The only surprise in that first meeting was that St. Marys' had 11 offensive rebounds, something I'm sure Few corrects. The tough thing for be to get behind trying to take the home dog here is that they just don't create turnovers (not their defensive MO) and they've had SOME issue with them on offense. It simply comes down to motivation and execution, as the Gaels will want this game played at a snail's pace and Gonzaga won't. It's also hard to bet AGAINST the #1 three point shooting team (St. Marys %) in the nation because if they get hot, it's two possessions to three for the Zags. Right now - I think I lean to the under more than a side - although that's always tough if there's fouls down the stretch, so check that, 1H under.
FSU/Notre Dame: It's always hard to fade the Irish at home, especially in a revenge game for a three-point loss in Tallahassee earlier this season. I did fade Notre Dame the other night against Wake, thinking perhaps a slight look-ahead, and actually there was and we pushed late. Wake was winning or covering most of that game. My issue with FSU is and has been their youth, because when they go bad they go really bad - and they haven't had a great road win this season, aside from a two point win at UVA. If FSU has a weakness of defense it's the perimeter, and that's how they Irish tend to beat people. On the flip side of that is the fact that the Irish bench is short, so if FSU controls some of this pace that could show up later. In that last game Notre Dame could NOT score inside but could not MISS from the outside - I have to see both of them regressing to the mean here. FSU isn't great from the line - and what I don't know is how they youth of FSU react if it's close, late, because they haven't been in that situation much - especially lately. In what should be a pick 'em game, I like the Irish in the 1H, and think it sneaks over late. If it's lower scoring in the 1H I will take the 2H over.
Villanova/Xavier: Villanova is playing for a #1 seed and that can't be overlooked. If they get this one, they should not lose another regular season game. But, Xavier has a lot to play for aside from seeing since they've only got one more Conference loss than 'Nova and could win the rest of their games as well - and clearly beating Nova in this rematch of a BEATDOWN earlier this season will go a long way in March, regardless. Although Xavier has been winning, they've had some very close games lately, which could rob some energy late. If Xavier is going to win this game one would think they'd want it lower scoring - I wanted to take them until I saw that it's Villanova with the #1 three point defense in the Conference. Although Xavier may be the "cool underdog" - I don't think they win the game.