DODGERS at CUBS (Kershaw/Hendricks)
Take: DODGERS -125
The Cubs won 103 games in the regular season, and they’re already 4-1 in the post-season. And here I am laying a price against them at Wrigley Field tonight. At first glance, and maybe at second as well, that probably doesn’t make a lot of sense.
But that’s exactly what I’m planning on doing. I’m well aware that Clayton Kershaw, while absolutely the best pitcher on the planet, has not been the ultimate playoff horse. I’m also not ignorant of the fact that Kyle Hendricks has been nothing short of amazing at home all season. Maybe the microscopic 1.32 Wrigley ERA is a little deflated based on the metrics, but there’s simply no denying that he has been a monster at home this year.
Here’s the flip side. Kershaw’s post season ledger is still very small sample in comparison to his overall numbers, and while I respect the “clutch” factor, I put more weight into the entire Kershaw picture. Simply stated, he’s one of the best pitchers I’ve ever seen and when putting together all the numbers, I end up with Kershaw being underpriced here, and by what I’d have to call a pretty substantial margin.
I already know many of the people reading this space today, and maybe even the majority, will disagree with this opinion and will be firing on the Cubs as home dogs. I can’t fault that logic even a little bit. But my baseball methodology is very numbers-oriented, and based on my calculations, Kershaw should be at least -150 tonight. Yes, even against the Cubs and even at Wrigley Field. At what amounts to a discount price, I’m therefore backing Kershaw and the Dodgers tonight.