291 CALIFORNIA vs. 292 HAWAII
Take: HAWAII +21
There’s zero question that California rates the role of chalk as the Golden Bears head to Australia to get the 2016 season started against a rather soft opponent. Hawaii doesn’t figure to be especially good, and I don’t see the Rainbow Warriors having a good chance to win this game outright.
But the good news is Hawaii only needs to be competitive to hang the big number in this battle, and I think the Warriors have a decent chance to do exactly that. Not by a bundle, mind you, but by enough to cash a ticket.
I see Nick Rolovich as a definite coaching upgrade for Hawaii. That’s not a knock on the legendary Norm Chow, but his ship had sailed and I have to believe we’re going to see more focused performances and a more disciplined approach under Rolovich. He also will be able to bank on more experience this season, as Hawaii returns 15 starters plus some solid special teamer. So while the Warriors are still way down the list in terms of power rankings, I do have them higher than in 2015, even if that doesn’t result in added wins.
Cal is in rebuild mode. Sonny Dykes has to replace a QB selected first overall in the NFL draft, what amounts to the entire receiving corps, and there are holes on the defense as well. The PAC-12 has a load of balance and the league will have a tough time getting anyone to the playoffs as they beat up on one another in conference play. The Golden Bears don’t figure to be anywhere near the title chase, and in fact, Cal might only be favored one time the rest of the season.
There isn’t any question the favorite has the better athletes, and if this game were being played a couple months from now, when the newcomers have more experience, I likely wouldn’t even be considering the underdog.
But the fact is that right now, I can see the experience factor being quite important. I can also see Hawaii having tremendous enthusiasm here. They’re not very good, but every team thinks they are when the ledger reads 0-0. So I don’t think the Warriors take the field feeling defeated before the game gets started. It won’t surprise me if that’s exactly how they feel when they have to visit Michigan on September 3. But I’ll concern myself with that game later.
My line on this game is not far from where the actual line sits. I made Cal -18 with the game on neutral turf. So it’s not like this is any kind of slam dunk call on the Warriors, and to be honest, if it wasn’t a stand alone game, I’d probably leave it alone. In fact, this will only be a half-unit play for me. But I am taking the 21 with Hawaii and feel they’ll at least give Cal a battle to get the season started.