The good news is that the free play won Monday. The bad news is that all the other bets lost. The best thing I can do is take ten steps backwards and contribute - I have not forgotten how to win at baseball - or, maybe I have.
Free play here: Kanasa City Royals. Doc Watson (the blues guitarist, not the sports bettor) can see that. Although I imagine the Doc Watson in the forums sees, too
Brewers/Pirates: It's hard for me to ignore Guerra's 1.07 WHIP - and the fact that he's had nine days rest since throwing 109 pitches in three straight games. Do we get the Taillon who shut down down Seattle and the Mets or the one that was lit by the Dodgers and Cubs? When he (Taillon) keeps the ball down he's almost invincible, up and he's quite hittable. Then there's the Brewers deplorable road record - I have to wonder if the AS break hurt the Pirates, who had won 9 of 11 prior to. I think if there's value here it's in the total - under.
Fish/Phillies: You have to think the Phillies, at least their bullpen, are a bit troubled after blowing a late lead to Fernandez. Velasquez at home has a WHIP of a mere 0.94 (over 1.50 on the road) - his only real bad outing was in Wrigley, which is somewhat predictable. He may have been helped by the break as he'd been getting the ball up - he's already lost to the Fish this year, so I look for him to make adjustments. I hesitate only because he's no been pitching deep and wonder how much of a toll last nights' loss took - so if it's the Phillies it's F5. Urena had been relegated to the bullpen this season, and sent down to AAA - where honestly, he didn't overwhelm there, either. The only positive is that the Philllies haven't seen him much - so I could also make a case for the F5 under, hence taking BOTH pens out of it.
Washington/Dodgers: I wasn't sure why Kazmir and the Dodgers were underdogs last night to Lopez and the Nats, and clearly I wasn't the only one since they're now the listed favorite - Lopez has exactly 11 innings of AAA ball, so this is a quantum leap. He is indeed a top prospect, but not one I could put actual dollars behind. Kazmir beat Washington a month ago in LA - soI could conclude now that they've (Washington) all had a look at him that Washington may indeed be a sharp play before the day is over. They're solid at home, the pen has been decent, and they're well above .500 against LHP's - that and the fact that the Dodgers have been traveling a ton the last month and haven't fared well on the East Coast - so retraction - I actually like the Nationals and the under.
Braves/Reds: As much as I like the Braves at times, it's become nearly impossible to back them - and almost equally impossible to back Cincinnati at -150 or so - a team that's lost all five of Reeds' starts. Reed hasn't lasted long which clearly bring the Reds' bullpen into any full game bet, and although they've fared well lately, there's the body of work to be considered. There's also no real reason to back Jenkins - even after his first start at Philadelphia, since he's not really shown anything impressive in the Minors - ever, really. That would perhaps lead me to think about the over in the small park, although Barksdale isn't the best HP umpire for that. Clearly there are better games - but if that's all you have on TV and need to bet on it I'd have to think 9 is at least a push in the total.
Mets/Cubs: I was a bit surprised the Mets didn't give a better showing against Lester last night, and by the same token a bit surprised Chicago hit Matz as well as they did. I'd love to think about the Mets RL here, especially in such a low scoring (projected) game, but with Syndergaard having arm issues and the fact that he JUST shut down the Cubs, it's tough. This is a Cubs team that lost 9 of 11 going into the break, but have won three of four since - shutting down Texas' lineup. But, that IS an AL team that had to forgo the DH - Arrieta has some rest after the regression and being hammered by these Mets - so in truth I think both teams get to three runs - so over 7 at + money looks attractive, albeit "square".
Padres/Cardinals: I'd surely love to make a case for the Padres here but that would mean backing Colin Rea - who's road numbers and five innings against the Cardinals this season make it next to impossible. Martinez hasn't given up more than three earned runs since the end of May against the Cubs - as a big-time ground ball pitcher I do think we could use the Cardinals in a parlay somewhere, or simply lay the -1.5. What's really interesting is that the Padres are 5-1 in Rea's road starts in spite of him having a 1.71 WHIP in those starts - so one could logically conclude that this game goes over as well and could well be a carbon copy of last nights' 10-2 Cardinals win.
Orioles/Yankees: The Orioles simply haven't been hitting, no last night when we needed them to and not in Tampa Bay before that when we needed them to. Their bullpen has been great and they've played to six straight unders - and in spite of being in first place in the AL East, their road record is pitiful - so I can't just assume they'll wake up from the last few games, since it's not a new phenomenon (losing on the road). That and the fact that Davis, Weiters, and Kim are all listed as questionable. Now add on the fact that Worley hasn't thrown a big league pitch in three months, and it's Yankees or nothing. Of course that would mean backing Eovaldi, who's simply been horrible - and against weaker hitting teams than the Yankees. So, add the fact that Betances, Chapman, and Miller have all pitched the last two nights - and the only conclusion I could draw would be the over - except we don't have the right umpire, and in fact one of the worst for "overs" in Tichenor. Him calling this game is perhaps the only reason this total came off of 9.5 - so at 9 I do still think there's merit to the over, and by default I'd have to back the Orioles.
Twins/Tigers: Well, backing Minnesota or even thinking a Twins game would go over (as I did last night) is right up there with thinking about betting on the Braves. I would grant you that at times Milone has surprised me, but given the success the Detroit hitters have had against him, I can't go there - not with their bullpen and their 13-30 road record. Of course then backing the Tigers would mean backing a rough bullpen and Anibal Sanchez who hasn't thrown more than five innings since late May. We have a very good HP umpire to look at the over here, however hard it may be. The total opened at 10 and came off if it - but I suspect it will close at 10 (or higher) once the public gets more involved.
Cleveland/Kansas City: Well, we had the Indians last night and I went against a rule of mine of not fading the Royals at home at plus-money. That did not go well, given a 7 run inning by Kansas City. I could conceivably take the Royals again, even with Salazar on the mound, since he's had some arm issues as well. But, since he's pretty much owned Kansas City, the under is in play here, IMO. Clearly the Royals have a bullpen to back Flynn, but he (Flynn) did throw five innings against the Astros this season, so the potential to shut Cleveland down is certainly there. The Royals runline is without a doubt a consideration.
Houston/Oakland: The instinctive thing to do is just take the Astros whenever Keuchel pitches - but we do know that on the road he can and has been had. He did beat Oakland at home right before the break, but the A's have seen enough of him and actually fared rather well, at least enough not take take Houston here, certainly not at -170 on the road, and in a park that's not conducive to the Astros long balls. However, Overton was hit hard by the Angels (who can't hit) and even harder by the Giants (who struggle offensively at times) so I might look at the over here - and clearly many people did since Bookmaker opened it at 8, which lasted all of a few minutes. At 8.5 it's probably still doable - but smaller than I'd have done it at 8, for sure.
Texas/Angels: Texas let us down last night, as their bullpen did what it does - some people (me) never learn. Now you'd want to fade Lincecum, and for good reason - but that means betting ON Kyle Lohse, who threw 109 pitches and was hit hard by the Twins in his only start this season (right before the break). I can't do that, either. So, let's mix in the Rangers' bullpen with Lincecum and really the only consideration here would be the over, which I did bet last night at 9 - but even that's tough in such a pitcher-friendly park. However, Wegner is certainly one of the right umpires for a lot of runs to be scored.
White Sox/Seattle: I just can't wrap my head around taking Quintanta as a road favorite, and not so much because of him, but by the fact that Chicago just hasn't been scoring. So, that would lead me to think under - BUT, Quintana right before the break gave up four runs to Atlanta and shortly before that start gave up four to Minnesota. That makes it impossible for me to back Chicago on the road, although I do see this as staying under, all things being equal. Miley has given up hits, but for the most part kept the ball in the park the last handful of starts - but I think, looking at whos' who, that that may change tonight. Bettors seem somewhat reluctant to make their mind early, but at 8 with no vig I would seriously consider the over, given that both pens haven't been all that great, and it will take BOTH pitchers throwing well to keep it under. That and the fact that the last time Danley did a game in Seattle there were 20 runs scored, and the last White Sox game he did went over, even with Sale on the mound.
Giants/Red Sox: Peavy coming back to one of his former teams here. Let's assume for a minute that he's the bad Jake Peavy and look at Boston - well, I can't, given that San Fran's bullpen has been great right before the break, and the fact that both Hanley and Chris Young (who is on the DL) saw plenty of Peavy and did nothing against him. So, the usual summertime over in Fenway is something I don't think happens here, and give the Giants a DH on top of it, and a 28-19 record on the road, perhaps the Giants. But, that would be bucking a trend as well, since Boston is 9-0 in Porcello's home starts this season - which to me is another indicator that we may not see the runs that you might expect - and the bettors may tend to agree since it's come off of 10.5 - went back up, lasted no time whatsoever (at Bookmaker) - so I think that later in the day we'll see 10.5 pop up again - and I like the under.
Rays/Rockies: Many people thought the Rays would be the right side last night, and clearly they were not. How anyone could assume that with a dead-nuts fly ball pitcher in Smyly, and without a DH - that the Rays could win in the small park. So tonight they send another LHP in Snell who has actually showed some potential, and has been able to keep the ball in the park. Just with that I'd tend to think under, especially at 12 - as Chatwood is also a ground ball pitcher. I don't like the fact that neither one of these starters tends to pitch deep, so a F5 under would probably be a better option. And in a game with a total of 12 makes the RL less expensive, but in a game with such a high total the likelihood of a one-run game is significantly less. I can't do much but take Colorado and under.
Toronto/Arizona: Aaron Sanchez has been a go-to pitcher all season, and he can pitch deep into the game. Add that to the fact that the Jays pen was great before the break (I guess we can assume that since they're rested they'll perform), so that makes it tough to make a case for Arizona, even the RL, since they haven't seen him. That fact that Toronto doesn't get a DH here could be large, and clearly at least one of the reasons 9.5 is not longer around to take advantage of perception. The perception is that the Jays score a lot, the D-Backs score a lot, and it's a small park. Godley isn't likely to shut down Toronto given his history of pitching out of the pen, or the fact that he hasn't thrown more than five innings in a calendar year. That and the fact that Arizona's bullpen was as bad as is humanly possible (not unlike me lately) right before the break. I can see using Toronto somewhere, or simply laying the -1.5 knowing that they'll get 27 outs regardless.