The weekend was not kind - and we move on:
912 DET (-140) Pinnacle vs 911 MIN |
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Analysis: Here we have a pitcher in Nolasco that's allowed 15 home runs in 108 innings pitched, and allowed 127 hits. Interestingly enough his WHIP is "only" 1.37 because he usually doesn't walk many. That's a goof thing (pitching more to contact) against a team like Detroit that doesn't take a lot of pitches. That theory is born out by the fact that he gave up five runs in five innings to the Tigers at home earlier this season. What's really interesting is that from 2013-2015 he started five games against Detroit, lasting a total of 27 innings - but WALKING a dozen - by FAR more than any other team he faced in that time span (yes, I accounted for the other division rivals he sees more often). At Comerica park he's thrown 19 innings in four starts and allowed 24 hits in that same time span (which doesn't take into consideration THIS years beating). This is also a huge series for Detroit in that they've got these three games before heading out to Chicago and Boston, so they can perhaps get closer to the Indians, who are obviously on the road AT Kansas City. The Tigers' pen has been "better" at home (on the season) while the Twins' pen has a 5.26 season-long ERA on the road, with exactly THREE saves and seven blown saves. Now,Matt Boyd is certainly hittable, but it IS the Twins on the road where they are 13-29. They've seen Boyd collectively for a total of 12 at bats with one hit - so although the truth may lie somewhere in between what Boyd IS and what the Twins ARE - we're still at HOME with a better bullpen and clearly the more potent offense. I am clearly considering the over in this one - almost as a "if the Tigers get five" type of bet.
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I'm not sure I trust Jose Fernandez at -210 on the road, even at Philadelphia (he's no surprise to them) - but because he's not prone to pitching deep, and because we get Fernandez (who can hit) this might be another "over" bet.
There is no point IMO in even considering the Reds and Finnegan as a favorite. IMO that could well be the public disaster of the day. We'll see.
Lester had fallen on hard times before the break - and we faded him big. Might do that again. It's not like the Mets totally suck - and the Cubs hit him hard earlier this season (one reason the line is so high) - we do look for the pitcher to adjust - but will also be very interested to see that total.
Mike Leake is not worth -170 to anyone in baseball, IMO. Padres RL is perhaps the way to go - but I can't get past Friedrich at all. I'd love to see that total come down to 8 and then take the over - doubt that it does, however.
The Orioles have simply had their way with Nova and on more than one occasion. But, here's the downside - Gausman is 0-5 on the road with a .310 batting average against for the season - allowed 10 jacks in 48 innings. It's hard not to like the over in this one, albeit square - interesting that the vig on the total suggests under 9 - not a chance I could fire that.
Kluber has owned (for the most part) the Royals while the Indians (for the most part) have hit Volquez, (at least the LHH's) and in 2 of his last 13 starts was he able to finish the 7th inning. What I think is the deal here is that this one stays under. I thought I'd love Cleveland, and fade the Royals in their first game back - but I need to see the Indians (and the Royals, for that matter) lineup.
Fiers is one of those "feast or famine" pitchers, and he's had almost two weeks to dwell on his last outing where he lasted 3.1 innings. And he's given up 16 home runs in less than 100 innings. But, this IS a big park (FML for thinking Oakland would score YESTERDAY) and the A's have pretty much done nothing against him. Graveman has also been feast or famine, and CAN induce a ton of ground balls. He doesn't usually pitch deep, however. The A's pen has been better lately, but since Hill left so early they've got nothing left, so it's probably Houston and under, IMHO. If they push that total to 8.5 that's a done deal.
I have no feel for the Angels and am typically wrong when I do have a feel for the Angels. Tropeano is yet another "five inning pitcher" that Texas hasn't done a lot against, albeit in limited exposure. The Angels pen has been solid, but they're still well under .500 at home. A long flight for Texas coming from Chicago last night - but their terrible bullpen is at least rested. Griffin is yet another all-or-nothing, five inning pitcher - so in this bigger park I lean under and slightly to the Angels.
Not a ton of love for Chris Sale only being -145 on the road, to Wade LeBlanc. Inasmuch as he started the All Star game - he really hasn't been as dominant as in years' past, but he's actually been better on the road than at home. Cruz and Cano have had some success against him, but that's it. But, the White Sox have scored exactly one run in their last four games, making it difficult to not think "under" - given that their bullpen has been pretty solid lately. LeBlanc's two home starts were beast-like but he was crushed at Houston right before the break. The White Sox aren't the Astros - and they have no exposure to LeBlanc. Since Seattle's bullpen has been on "WTF" mode (giving up runs) I can see this one as a Seattle F5 bet only, and perhaps the White Sox win late.
I'm a bit surprised to see Tyler Anderson a -140 favorite here since he's going to give way to the pen at the latest, the 7th inning. He's a ground ball pitcher, which is great in THIS park, and he has SLOWLY regressed a little since his first start against the Padres. Smyly is a flyball pitcher which is clearly BAD in this park - and obviously the Rockies haven't seem HIM, either. The Rays aren't hitting well but their bullpen has picked up the slack -but they are a .500 team against LHP's. In the end, this game has pass written on it for me, unless some line move occurs that's tips it later.