We nailed winners in Game 3 on Cleveland and then Game 4 with Golden State. The Game 5 side will likely leave me on the sidelines, however. I would describe the Cav's emotional state of mind right now as "fragile". I simply do not trust them, and if things play out badly in the 1st quarter, there is the chance the Cavs "go fishing" early.
However, there is no denying that Draymond Green is worth a solid 2.5 points to the line, and he is going to be sorely missed. Further, the NBA will make quite a bit of money if this series extends, and I would not be surprised to see the Cavs get the benefit of more of the 50/50 close calls tonight. Further, if I wanted to bet Golden State -5.5 at home, I had ample opportunity to do so Game 1 WITH Green, so it is difficult to do so now without him.
Golden State may play a bit bigger and a bit slower without Green, so UNDER 204.5 is a lean, but I cannot help but with the game 4 total closing 207.5, and it landing 205, that any value there is marginal....I will wait and hope the total leaks up, and if it doesn't I will pass .
I don't have a big bet on the NBA game 5, but I am FIRING on a huge 3* MLB slugfest release tonight. 89-62 lifetime on 3* plays, I LOVE this game to fly over the total!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY
Further, note that with NBA ending, it is time to put a huge effort into Football. My NFL and CFB week1 packages are both up, and I just fired in my 1st CFB release a HUGE 3* play.