Sports teams have to deal with big losses. Professional handicappers and bettors have to do the same. Last night I went large with Toronto +12.5 in a three star loss. Prior to tipoff, I was brimming with confidence as
1) Many handicappers that I respected had also landed on Toronto even at +12*
2) The marketplace was embracing the Raptors with the line down to 11.5 at post at the sharp books.
* Many have argued that when "everyone" is on one side, it if often trouble. While I agree that if 'everyone' is the public that is a problem, but when "everyone" is a collection of documented winning sports gamblers, I have always found their consensus plays to do great ATS PROVIDED YOU CAN GET THEIR RELEASE NUMBER (it goes you no good to play a consensus play at 3 points worse than what they released it at)
The game tips off, and the Cavs do what they have done all playoffs kicking ass, and rolling the over matched Raptors.
Games like this can shake your confidence, and make you change your approach. However, I think one has to be careful to react, not over react. The Raptors were in a great situation last night..........sometimes (more than 4 out of 10) teams in spots like this don't cover.
What was more painful to me, is that this 3* loss lowered my lifetime 3* record at Pregame to 85-61, and put me in a 5-11 run on my last 16 3 stars. While I had every intention of hitting at a 60% clip on 3* releases, it is clear that the 60% level is just too optimistic, as one bad patch like that really puts you in a tough spot. The one lesson learned may well be that finding great plays this late in the year in the NBA Final Four can be awfully tough. However, one could certainly argue that often the best time to fire bombs is IN big high profile games fading the public (How good was the bet on Denver +6 in the Super Bowl? !!!)
Regardless, I face a Friday morning hangover, it is always difficult when you put up a big play, and it is the wrong side.
Like a successful sport team, all you can do is go and get prepared and play hard the next day!
In the WNBA I am 5-0 YTD, and I DO have a play for tonight. I will be releasing it at 2:30 PM PST today, stay tuned (I expect to get a better line by waiting).
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY
NFL FREE PLAY
2 team teaser: 464 KC-1 to 472 Sea -2, NFL Week1!