I am ON over tonight Utah/LAL.
I think we have a perfect storm brewing for a shootout in Staples Center, an arena 3 blocks away from a place I worked for throughout the 1990s as an Actuary for Transamerica (my last 'real' job).
Utah is battling for a playoff bid. However, by tipoff they will know that Hou has beaten Sacramento, and they will have been eliminated from the Playoffs. Given this, the Utes er Jazz will let down on the emotional intensity, and soak in the ambiance of Kobe's last night. Goalie Rudy Gobert (Mr. UNDER) is already out for the Jazz, and after playing 2 months needing every game like blood, and playing slow, look for them to be happy to run up and down the court with Kobe.
As for Kobe, we all know the book on Lakers' totals. Go OVER when Kobe plays.....and we all expect him to play ALOT. IT would be logical for the Lakers to play little to no defense, push the ball, and let Kobe bomb away. If I am on the Jazz I am happy to leave him wide open so he can shoot 40% and score 20+ while I push the pace and get my points vs. non existent defense.
Of course, the Rockets COULD lose earlier in the day (6 percent chance). Further, I am aware the total opened 189.5...how much value can we have playing over 194? One cannot have 'everything' when betting on sports. I think it is still a fine investment, and I fully expect this total just continues to go up. We fire NOW.
I gave out the Jazz/LAL over as a 1 star to my NBA guys last night OVER 192. I have two rock solid 2* totals plays in the NBA, you can get them at the release numbers!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY