Surprised the Carolina Panthers already are up to six-point Super Bowl favorites? Bookmakers are, too.
It didn't take long for the opening number of Carolina minus 3 1/2 to get to 4 1/2 against Denver. That seemed like a logical middle ground. But it wasn't.
"They (bookmakers) got to minus 4 1/2 quick enough and expected to start writing two-way action with the pros coming back on Denver," said professional gambler Steve Fezzik. "It didn't happen. Money kept pouring in on Carolina from all sources. The books went to minus five then minus 5 1/2. This was no big deal since the chance the game will land five exactly is well under two percent. So the books were OK letting bettors bet minus 4 1/2 expecting to get buyback from the pros at plus 5 1/2 and having much the better of it."
Sounds good. It just hasn't happened. Sharps have stopped betting Carolina via the spread. Wise guys aren't going to lay 5 1/2 now when the line used to be in the 3 1/2-to-4 1/2 range. Public money is driving up the Panthers, too. So far there has been no support for the Broncos. Many bet shops are at Panthers minus six.
"Books realized they had to go to six to get bets back on Denver," Fezzik said. "Many have done exactly this, but are reluctant to do so. The reason for that is the possibility of the game landing exactly Carolina by six."
Fezzik estimates there is about a one in 25 chance the Panthers win by six points. That would be a terrible scenario for the house because many wagers would be refunded while those betting the Panthers at less than six obviously cash.
There also is a possibility of a middle opening up. Those who laid less than six with the Panthers might be able to get plus 6 1/2 with Denver. Certainly those liking the Broncos shouldn't be in a rush to make their wager.
"Since the six's were not snapped up the minute they appeared, it looks like a Bronco backer can just keep on waiting," said professional bettor David Malinsky. "For as much of a surge as there has been to Carolina already, the folks wearing Cam Newton jerseys that want to bet $100 on the game are not involved yet - it is likely that less than two-three percent of the recreational money has been wagered. I would think that most sports books would be nervous about ever having to go to seven, since that is when a quick buyback would likely take place. A Denver backer has a good chance at a 6 1/2 between now and kickoff."
Panthers steam just might drive the number up to 6 1/2. Bookmakers likely would get their two-way action at that point, but it opens them up to more danger.
"The books CLEARLY do not want to go to 6 1/2 and open themselves up to a debacle like this, so look for them to hold tight to the line six," Fezzik said, "and if Carolina money continues to pour in, they likely move from minus six minus $1.05 to to six minus $1.10 and then minus six minus $1.15. A key reason to not go to 6 1/2 is also that many books still allow you to buy up to seven. The chance the game lands Carolina by seven is even higher than six, about a five percent chance."
Some have the opinion you should only consider buying a half-point to get on or off a three.
"The math does not hold up on buying off of any number other than a three," Malinsky said, "but I would consider Denver plus seven minus $1.15 to be reasonable."
Those looking to fire on the Panthers may want to do so immediately either via the spread at minus 5 1/2 or six - not risking the line going up to 6 1/2 - or backing Carolina on the money line where the number is in the minus $2.20 to $2.60 range.
"Despite Carolina being minus six you can still lay $2.20 (on the money line)," Malinsky said. "While that may not appeal to some because of the rate of return, it does bring a value based on where the game is sitting. Ordinarily, I would suggest betting the favorite on the money line as late as possible because they have been known to drop on game day (recreational bettors liking the rate of return if the underdog wins outright).
"But since the straight line may continue to climb, at some point those minus $2.20's may trickle up instead of down."