Welcome to my first DraftKings blog of the 2015 NFL season. I hope you already read parts one and two in my 'Strategy for Success' series that was published in the Playbook Yearbook magazine and issue #1 of the Playbook newsletter. In our weekly Thursday blog, I'm going to suggest five possible lineups for the upcoming weekend's NFL games that you can play at DRAFTKINGS. These are lineups that should be played in GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments. Those are the tournaments at DraftKings that have at least 100 people playing in them. These 'FAB FIVE' Lineups from my Labyrinth are all high risk... but high reward. In every one of these lineups, we're rolling the dice with some of the players that we have chosen. And it is IMPORTANT that we do so in a GPP Tourney. We have to have something in our lineups that separates us from the thousands of other people that will be playing in these tournaments. Each of our Fab Five lineups has some sort of theme to them. But before we can get into the week one action, we first need a refresher on the NFL football scoring rules at DRAFTKINGS.
Your starting lineup in any DraftKings NFL contest consists of one QB, two RB's, three WR's, one TE, one 'FLEX' (any RB / WR / TE), and one DST (defense / special teams). That's a 9-man starting lineup. You accumulate points in the following way for each position.
QB: passing TD = 4 pts, 1 pt for every 25 passing yards, 3 pts for a 300+ yard passing game, -1 pt for every interception.
RB, WR, and TE: rushing or receiving TD = 6 pts, 1 pt for every 10 rushing yards, 1 pt for every 10 receiving yards, 3 pts for a 100+ rushing game, 3 pts for a 100+ receiving game, punt/kickoff return for a TD = 6 pts, 2-point conversion = 2 pts, fumble lost = -1 pt.
Defense / Special Teams: sack = 1 pt, interception = 2 pts, fumble recovery = 2 pts, kickoff return, punt return, int return, or fumble recovery for a TD = 6 pts, safety = 2 pts, blocked kick = 2 pts, 0 points allowed = 10 pts, 1-6 points allowed = 7 pts, 7-13 points allowed = 4 pts, 14-20 points allowed 1 pt, 21-27 points allowed = 0 pt, 28-34 points allowed -1 pt, and 35 > points allowed = -4 pts.
So without further ado, let's check out this this week's FAB FIVE Lineup Lab for the first weekend of the NFL season. As is always the case, we do NOT have any of the players from the Thursday night game. That game is left alone. These lineups all kick off at 1:00pm ET on Sunday afternoon. And remember, I am a GPP player only. I don't play cash games and I don't play '50/50' games. I play in tournaments with a LOT of players in them. HIGH-upside tournies. HIGH risk but HIGH reward. And it doesn't get any larger than the MILLIONAIRE MAKER, in which the entry fee is $20.00. There could very well be over 700,000 people playing in that Tournament this weekend! First price is a cool 2 MILLION. I write this blog for players like me. A guy (or gal) who might spend $50 to $60 each weekend in Daily Fantasy Sports action. For the record, my bankroll for the season at DraftKings is $1000.00. That comes out to about $60 per week. I am breaking it down the following way in week one: Two entries ($40) in the Millionaire Maker Tournament... three ($15) entries in the $300,000 Flea Flicker Tournament... and three entrees ($9) in the $1,000,000 Play-Action Tournament.
Lineup #1: The FOUR-MAN 'STACK' #1
QB Aaron Rodgers GB @ Chi $8600
RB Eddie Lacy GB @ Chi $7500
RB Doug Martin Ten @ TB $4500
WR Randall Cobb GB @ Chi $8000
WR Devante Adams GB @ Chi $4400
WR Tyler Lockett SEA @ Stl $3000
TE Owen Daniels Bal @ DEN $3400
FLEX Adrian Peterson MIN @ Sf $7700
DEF NY Jets Cle @ NYJ $2900
*This lineup topped out right at our maximum of $50,000. There is nothing left over, which is the way I like it! If you read any of my blogs during the NBA season, or the two Strategy for Success articles, then you already know that I play a lot of stacks. Putting together multiple players from the same team in anticipation of a high-scoring outcome in which all (or most) of those players contribute significantly. In this case, we are stacking the PACKERS players together in a game in which Green Bay is projected to trounce the Bears and score 28 points. Yes, it is true that a lot of public players will start Rodgers, or Lacy, or Adams this week. But FOUR Packer players together? In all of our lineups, there will be 1-2 'high risk but high reward' players.Our first risk player is Doug Martin. Gotta LOVE the the salary for a guy that is the clear-cut #1 RB on Tampa Bay. Risk player #2 is the rookie WR for the Seahawks. Tyler Lockett was a break-out player in the pre-season for Seattle and he could very well take one to the house in the indoor game versus the Rams. Our third risk player (TE Owen Daniels) has a lot of upside with his new team. But new Denver offensive co-ordinator Gary Kubiak LOVES throwing to the tight ends. When we build up a nice early point total with this lineup (7 players in the Sunday early kickoffs), it's nice to know that we will still have some great action in the Monday nighter (Adrian Peterson) if we need it...
Lineup #2: The FOUR-MAN 'STACK' #2
QB Sam Bradford PHI @ Atl $6900
RB DeMarco Murray PHI @ Atl $6700
RB Chris Ivory Cle @ NYJ $4100
WR Jordan Matthews PHI @ Atl $7200
WR Nelson Agholor PHI @ Atl $5700
WR Jarvis Landry MIA @ Was $5600
TE Delanie Walker TEN @ TBay $3400
FLEX Marshawn Lynch SEA @ Stl $7300
DEF Mia Dolphins MIA @ Was $3000
*This lineup topped out at $49,900. There is $100 left over. So our second 4-man stack of the weekend takes us to the first game of the Monday night double-header, as the Eagles take on the Falcons indoor at the Georgia Dome. This game has the highest Over / Under line of the entire weekend at 55 to 56 freakin' points! So it would be foolish to not have any exposure to it. It will also feature two teams who run the quickest offensive tempos in the entire league. I love the stack of the new Philly QB (Bradford) with his starting two wide receivers. Jordan Matthews and the rookie Agholor both looked GREAT in the pre-season. Throw in RB DeMarco Murray, and you have a great 4-man stack. This will probably be the LOWEST salary ($6700) that Murray will have ALL season, so you may as well take advantage in week one. Our first risk play is actually not that dangerous. Chris Ivory is the clear-cut #1 RB for the Jets, and at a great low salary of only $4100 to boot. We are actually also playing a mini-stack in this game. That would be Jarvis Landry of the Dolphins along with the Miami defense. Don't tell anyone. But Landry is the Kickoff AND Punt Returner. So if he takes one of those all the way for a TD, we get DOUBLE points! At the TE position, stud Delanie Walker is gonna be a popular 'check-down' receiver for Marcus Marriota. We did so well with this lineup, that we were actually able to fit a great RB in the flex position (Beast-Mode LYNCH).
Lineup #3: The PRIME-TIMERS
QB Eli Manning NYG @ Dal $7400
RB Adrian Peterson MIN @ Sf $7700
RB Joseph Randle Nyg @ DAL $5900
WR Odell Beckham Jr NYG @ Dal $9200
WR Rueben Randle NYG @ Dal $5100
WR Charles Johnson MIN @ Sf $4900
TE Jason Witten Nyg @ DAL $4000
FLEX Cord Patterson MIN @ Sf $3000
DEF Min Vikings MIN @ Sf $2800
*This lineup utilized the entire budget of $50,000. Nothing left over. It's a lineup that's not for the faint of heart. That's because this lineup will have ZERO points heading into the Sunday night game. It's comprised entirely from the three prime-time games on Sunday and Monday night. And in fact, it's actually put together from only TWO games (Giants @ Dallas and Minnesota @ San Francisco). First off, let's get into the Sunday night game. If you listened to this week's 'Against the Spread' podcast (Marc Lawrence and yours truly), then you already know how I feel about the scoring in this game. And if you didn't listen to the podcast, please make it a point to do so. It can be accessed on the front page of the Playbook.com website (shameless plug!). The OU line in this Dallas / NY Giants game is a high 51 to 51.5 points. The last SIX games in this series played in Dallas have ALL gone 'Over the Total' with an average of over 64 points per game. These same two teams played the opening week Sunday night game LAST year as well, and that was high-scoring. So an old-fashionbed NFC East Division shootout is in order. I played a 3-man GIANTS stack with Eli Manning and his starting two wide receivers. Then we threw in two Cowboys as well. As far as the Monday night game, we have a 3-man Minnesota stack. The risky part is starting minimum-priced Cordarrelle Patterson in this stack. But just like the Miami mini-stack (mentioned above), we must remember that a Minnesota kickoff or runt return for a TD will get us DOUBLE points now...
Lineup #4: The HIGH OVER / UNDER Lines
QB Matt Ryan Phi @ ATL $7500
RB Justin Forsett BAL @ Den $6200
RB Andre Ellington NOrl @ ARZ $6400
WR Julio Jones Phi @ ATL $9300
WR Brandin Cooks NORL @ Arz $7100
WR Leonard Hankerson Phi @ ATL $3000
TE Larry Donnell NYG @ Dal $3200
FLEX John Brown NOrl @ ARZ $4500
DEF Phil Eagles PHI @ Atl $2700
*We couldn't quite squeeze the entire $50,000 budget into this lineup, but we were very close at $49,900 ($100 left over). I like the them of this one a lot. And it makes so much sense. We've looked this week's games that have the highest Over / Under lines in them... and created an entire lineup of players. So those games are: Phil @ Atl (55 pts)... Nyg @ Dal (51.5 pts)... New Orl @ Arz (48.5 pts)... and Balt @ Den (48 pts). It's always a good idea to have some big-time exposure in the games that figure to have a shoot out. In this line up, we were able to craft a 3-man STACK of Atlanta Falcon players in the Monday night game. QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones are pretty much 'no brainer' plays. And yes, a lot of the squares AND sharps will have these two guys in their lineups. But how many will have #3 Atlanta wide-out Leonard Hankerson in that same lineup, and the minimum salary of only $3000? That's where we a deviating from the popular plays. It's high risk. But a good game from Hankerson (who looked great in the preseason) could certainly separate us from the pack. We've also chosen three potentially impactful players in what is projected to be a high-scoring game in Arizona, as the Cardinals host the Saints. It looks like Brandin Cooks will be Drew Brees' favorite new offensive weapon this season. For the Cards, Ellington figures on getting a lot of playing time. And I love the burner wide receiver John Brown. Remember, head coach Bruce Arians and his Cardinals throw more deep passes than ANY other team in the entire league!
Lineup #5: The 'QUARTERBACK-VALUE'
QB Kirk Cousins Mia @ WASH $5000
RB Matt Forte Gb @ CHI $7800
RB Jeremy Hill CIN @ Oak $7100
WR Calvin Johnson DET @ Sd $8500
WR A.J. Green CIN @ Oak $7800
WR Corey Brown CAR @ Jax $3000
TE Martellus Bennett Gb @ CHI $4300
FLEX Danny Woodhead Det @ SD $3700
DEF Den Broncos Bal @ DEN $2800
*This lineup finished right at the top... at $50,000. It might also be my favorite one. It's the perfect last lineup to separate ourselves from the rest of the pack. We're doing that at the QB position. We'll let the other Tourney players load up on the Rodgers, the Lucks, and the Mannings. Instead, we'll start at the bottom in terms of salary and find the best CHEAP quarterback value. Some would say that the best Week One QB value would be Tyrod Taylor of the Bills at $5000. I wouldn't disagree. But he's such a popular choice that he's actually turned into a public play now. So we will differentiate ourselves and go with Washington's main man Kirk Cousins at $5000. Remember, the DraftKings salaries have been in place for over a month now. RG III still has a salary of $6400 and Cousins has the minimum QB salary of only 5K. It should be the other way around! It WILL be corrected next week. So we may as well take advantage of that salary error. There is some high upside in a game in which Washington figures to play 'catch up' and against a Dolphins team that is hurting in the defensive secondary. Playing Cousins allows us to play four studs at RB and WR. With most players using Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, OBK, or Julio Jones at wide receiver, the two guys that we have chosen (Cal Johnson and AJ Green) are actually 'under the radar' now. And I like that. So is cheap rookie wide out Corey ('don't call me Philly') Brown of the Panthers. A #1 wide receiver at the minimum $3000? Yes, please! We actually get to enjoy a couple of mini-stacks with this lineup. The two most impactful BENGALS players in Jeremy Hill and AJ Green. AND the two most impactful BEARS players (with the ? injury status of Alshon Jeffrey) in Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett. Finishing up this lineup is a guy who figures to get a lot of playing time in passing AND running situations in Danny Woodhead, and at a great low salary of only 3.7K. San Diego soured on first-round draft pick RB Melvin Gordon in the pre-season. So Woodhead will be the beneficiary for the first few weeks in terms of playing time.