NFL PRE-SEASON OVER / UNDERS
From Victor King / King Creole Sports
Welcome back Totals players! Our favorite time of the year is once again upon us. You’ll notice that we like talking ‘TOTALS’. And there are a handful of Over / Under situations in which we can indeed turn a profit on… even in the NFL exhibition season. The games might not count for the players and coaches (in terms of wins and losses)… but they certainly DO for the bettors! We start with the best Home and Road OVER + UNDER teams in the last few seasons. After that, we take a look at individual team OU tendencies broken down by Game Number. We then conclude with some of the more noticeable OU patterns in regards to pre-season series histories. I think we got it all ‘covered’…
1) BEST Home and Road OVER and UNDER teams
Best Home ‘OVER’ teams - All four of the teams that we will highlight here went a PERFECT 2-0 O/U at home last season! Over the last six years in NFL ‘X’ play, the best OVER team at home by far has been the OAKLAND RAIDERS. They’ve gone 11-1 O/U (92% Overs) at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum in the last six seasons. Average OU line: 37.8. Average total points: 47.8. Nice margins too! The average Bronco home game has gone OVER by double digits (+10.0 ppg). Last year’s home games saw 53 and 72 points scored!
Right behind them at the #2 spot is a tie between the CAROLINA PANTHERS (6-1 O/U) and the CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-1-1 O/U). Carolina home games have averaged 41.0 ppg in this four-year time span, and the Panthers also went 2-0 O/U at home last year. For the Brownies, their home games have averaged slightly higher… at 44.5 ppg in the same four-year time span. And in the 2014 season, BOTH Cleveland home games went Over the Total (46 and 47 combined points in those two games).
The final team in our Top 4 list of great home ‘OVER’ teams is the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. Dating all the way back to the 2008 preseason, Eagle home games have gone 11-3 O/U (79% Overs). The average combined points in these games have been 43.4. And just like the previous three ‘Over KINGS’, the Eagles went a perfect 2-0 O/U at home last season. Those two games saw a combined 52 and 44 points scored.
Honorable mention: HOUSTON: 6-2-1 O/U last five years (42.9 ppg)… NEW ENGLAND: 8-3 O/U last six years (49.6)… GREEN BAY: 8-3 O/U last six years (44.4 / 2-0 O/U last year)... NEW ORLEANS: 7-3 O/U last five years (46.3).
Best Home ‘UNDER’ teams - We talk about this team every year. And there’s one NFL team in which you NEVER want to go ‘Over the Total’ when they are playing at home. That would be the MIAMI DOLPHINS. In the last five seasons, Miami has gone UNDER the Total 88% of the time in their pre-season home games down here in HOT South Florida (1-8-1 O/U). Average OU line: 37.6. Average combined points: just 29.5 ppg. That means the average Dolphin home game has gone UNDER by more than a touchdown (-8.1 ppg). I’m sure that the heat and humidity in the month of August down here in South Florida has a lot to do with these consistent low-scoring results. Last year, Miami’s home games went 0-1-1 O/U.
Next up is a tie between the ARIZONA CARDINALS and the NEW YORK GIANTS. Both of these NFC teams check in with a record of 1-6 O/U in the last four pre-seasons (86% Unders). And BOTH teams went a perfect 0-2 O/U at home last year. Arizona home games have seen an average 33.4 points per game. Last year’s two Cardinal ‘homies’ saw 32 and 33 points scored. For the Giants, their numbers are even lower. The G-Men have seen an average of only 29.7 combined ppg in their home games in this same four-year time frame. Last year’s home games for New York tallied only 36 and 29 total points.
Our fourth solid UNDER team at home is the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. Their home games have gone 2-7-1 O/U (78% Unders) over the last five years. Average combined points per game has been just 30.0. The Niners are yet ANOTHER team that also went a perfect 0-2 O/U at home last year (28 + 34 total points scored). So if you wagered UNDER the Total in Miami, Arizona, NY Giants, and San Francisco home games last year… you would have gone a perfect 7-0-1!
Honorable mention: PITTSBURGH (5-13 O/U last nine years)… WASHINGTON (5-12 O/U last eight years).
Best Road ‘OVER’ teams - In the last four seasons, the best road ‘OVER’ team has been the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. That’s right. Very high-scoring results for the Eagles at home AND on the road (as of late). Philly’s a great ‘Over’ team PERIOD. Their road games have averaged 49.8 total ppg in the same time span, and the games have gone a PERFECT 7-0-1 O/U. An average of almost 50 ppg in the pre-season? That’s like regular season results! Philadelphia pre-season games (home and road) have gone an amazing 25-7-1 O/U since the 2006 season. Last year’s four preseason games averaged a whopping 58.8 ppg!
On a more recent note, we can’t overlook the BALTIMORE RAVENS. They’ve gone 5-1 O/U in the last three seasons when playing on the pre-season road with an extremely high average of 50.5 ppg. That’s quite a contrast from previous years. In the decade of 2001 to 2011, Baltimore road games went 4-16 O/U. But we live in a ‘what have you done for me LATELY?’ world. And Raven ‘roadies’ have gone 108 degrees in the opposite direction in terms of OU results.
Our third and fourth strong ‘OVER’ teams on the pre-season road are the NEW YORK JETS and the ST LOUIS RAMS. Both teams have gone 11-3 O/U (79% Overs) in their road games over the last seven seasons. Average total PPG for New York on the road has been 38.9. And in the last two seasons, Jet road games have gone a perfect 4-0 O/U. For the Rams, they’ve averaged 42.7 in their road games in this same time span. And they’ve gone 3-1 O/U in the last two years on the road.
Honorable mention: KANSAS CITY: 7-2 last five years (40.1 ppg / 2-0 O/U last year)… SEATTLE: 7-2 O/U last five years (45.5 ppg)… ARIZONA: 6-2 O/U last four years (43.1)… NEW ORLEANS: 8-3-1 O/U last six years (43.8)… CINCINNATI: 7-3 O/U last five years (46.1).
Best Road ‘UNDER’ teams - We start our fourth query into my NFL pre-season database with the GREEN BAY PACKERS. Green Bay road games have trended ‘Under’ as of late, with results of 1-5 O/U in the last three seasons. That includes an average of 33.7 ppg. Last year, BOTH Green Bay road games also went Under the Total (36 and 28 combined points).
Also tied with Green Bay at 1-5 O/U over the last three seasons is the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS. Tampa road games have averaged only 34.3 ppg in this time span. And just like Green Bay, the Buccaneers also went a perfect 0-2 O/IU on the road last year (33.4 ppg average).
Next up, when it comes to low-scoring road games… the CAROLINA PANTHERS jump right out at us. The Panthers have gone 2-8 O/U (80% Unders) on the pre-season road since the 2010 season. Average PPG: 31.1. What’s interesting is that Carolina’s OU results are pretty much exactly OPPOSITE when compared to their regular season results. A great home ‘OVER’ team (6-1 O/U) and a great road ‘UNDER’ team (2-8 O/U) in the pre-season, But in the REGULAR season last year, Carolina went 2-6 O/U at home (37.9 ppg)… but 6-2 O/U on the road (51.0 ppg)!
Finally, our query concludes with the MINNESOTA VIKINGS. They’ve gone UNDER the Total 75% of the time on the road over the last six seasons, with a record of 3-9 O/U. Average points in Viking road games has been just 33.0. Last year, BOTH of Minnesota’s road games went Under the Total (32.0 ppg average).
Honorable mention: DENVER: 1-4 O/U last three years… ATLANTA: 3-7-1 O/U last six years.
2) PRE-SEASON Week-by-Week OU TEAM TENDENCIES
Week One (OU record and average PPG)
St Louis 7-0 O/U (43.6)… Chicago 9-1 O/U (40.8)… Philadelphia 5-1 O/U (48.0)… Indianapolis 4-1 O/U (45.0)… Atlanta 8-2 O/U (43.3)… Houston 7-2 O/U (36.5)… Seattle 6-2 O/U (40.8)… Jacksonville 7-3 O/U (42.7).
San Francisco 0-4 O/U (23.0)… Pittsburgh 1-8 O/U (31.5)… Green Bay 3-11 O/U (26.7)… New Orleans 2-7 O/U (33.9)… Tampa Bay 2-7 O/U (29.7)… Arizona 3-9 O/U (30.6)… Baltimore 4-12 O/U (29.8)… Dallas 4-10 O/U (28.9).
Week Two
New England 5-0 O/U (50.0)… Cincinnati 9-1 O/U (43.4)… Seattle 8-1 O/U (47.2)… New Orleans 5-1-1 O/U (46.4)… Oakland 5-1 O/U (44.8)… Kansas City 4-1 O/U (39.8)… Cleveland 7-2 O/U (44.3)… Green Bay 7-2 O/U (44.3)… Indianapolis 7-2 O/U (43.1).
San Francisco 0-5 O/U (27.2)… NY Giants 0-3 O/U (32.3)… Miami 1-3 O/U (33.5)… Washington 2-6 O/U (34.5)… St Louis 2-5 O/U (31.0).
Week Three
Oakland 6-0 O/U (54.5)… Pittsburgh 5-0 O/U (48.8)… Denver 6-1 O/U (47.1)… New Orleans 5-1 O/U (52.3)… Baltimore 3-1 O/U (57.8)… San Francisco 3-1-1 O/U (43.6)… Jacksonville 5-2 O/U (49.8)… New England 5-2 O/U (50.6).
San Diego 0-3 O/U (27.0)… Tampa Bay 1-5 O/U (35.0)… Chicago 1-4 O/U (37.4)… Cincinnati 1-4 O/U (36.4)… Dallas 1-4-1 O/U (34.3)… Kansas City 2-8-1 O/U (36.4)… Atlanta 1-3-1 O/U (37.0)… NY Giants 3-9 O/U (32.9).
Week Four
NY Jets 7-0 O/U (45.3)… Philadelphia 7-0 O/U (45.3)… San Francisco 3-0 O/U (46.0)… New Orleans 4-1 O/U (46.6)… St Louis 4-1 O/U (41.8)… Green Bay 7-2 O/U (40.7)… Tennessee 7-2 O/U (37.7)… Chicago 3-1 O/U (41.5).
Atlanta 1-7 O/U (28.4)… Carolina 1-7-1 O/U (29.6)… Pittsburgh 1-5 O/U (30.2)… Dallas 1-4 O/U (33.0)… New England 1-4 O/U (31.6)… Miami 2-6 O/U (27.9)… Buffalo 3-7 O/U (35.9)… Detroit 3-7 O/U (34.7)… Cincinnati 3-8 O/U (35.4).
3) PRE-SEASON Series History OU PATTERNS (by date)
8/9 – Minnesota vs Pittsburgh: Series history 0-4 O/U last 4 (28.5 combined ppg)
8/13 – Dallas @ San Diego: 1-3 O/U (34.7)
8/14 – Atlanta @ Tennessee: 0-3-1 O/U (32.5)
8/14 – Denver @ Seattle: 4-1 O/U (42.0)
8/22 – Chicago @ Indianapolis: 3-0 O/U (47.0)
8/22 – Oakland @ Minnesota: 0-3 O/U (24.0)
8/22 – Baltimore @ Philadelphia: 2-6 O/U (28.6)
8/22 – Denver@ Houston: 1-3 O/U (33.7)
8/28 – New England @ Carolina: 1-4 O/U (32.4)
8/29 – Baltimore @ Washington: 1-5 O/U (33.5)
8/29 – San Francisco @ Denver: 1-4 O/U (33.2)
8/29 – Seattle @ San Diego: 3-0 O/U (45.7)
8/30 – Houston @ New Orleans: 5-0-1 O/U (54.0)
8/30 – Arizona @ Oakland: 3-1 O/U (43.5)
9/3 – Philadelphia @ NY Jets: 7-0 O/U (45.3)
9/3 – Tampa Bay @ Miami: 0-7 O/U (25.7)
9/3 – Carolina @ Pittsburgh: 1-7-1 O/U (29.6)
9/3 – NY Giants @ New England: 1-4 O/U (31.6)
9/3 – Atlanta @ Baltimore: 2-8 O/U: 2-8 O/U (28.2)
LAST DAY for my NFL Season Access Early-Bird discounted subscription. Don’t miss the Guaranteed Lowest Price EVER! /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7928#capper