Analysis: Let's work backwards here. Both bullpen were pretty much emptied, including David Robertson throwing 31 pitches. The Tigers used 5 relievers on Wednesday and 5 on Thursday, with both Soria and Chamberlain (who has cost me millions over the years) throwing a significant amount of pitches. Before the games started the Tigers pen over the last week had a 6.75 ERA (which is why I originally liked Chicago Thursday) and the White Sox pen on the road this season has an ERA of 4.80. Flash back to Thursday when the Tigers had 16 hits and Cabrerra had exactly one of them. Surely he pissed about being intentionally walked in the 10th inning as well. So, the back end is vulnerable for both teams, and Quintana throws a lot of pitches and has not pitched past the 7th inning this season. He's (Qunitana) given up two home runs in each of his last two starts. This will be the fourth time this season he's face the Tigers, and in 16 innings he allowed 23 hits, a .348 batting average and a 7.88 ERA. That's not a new thing, since in a ton of at bats, collectively Detroit hits .330 against him, and Cespedes has four jacks in twelve at bats. Enough about how Detroit should score. Sanchez has thrown 100+ pitches in six straight games in his lone start against the White Sox back in April, he lasted 3.1 innings, giving up 9 hits and 9 earned runs. That's ALSO not an extraordinary thing either, since in a ton of at bats as a team the White Sox hit .339 against him, with some monster numbers for Melky, Abreu, and LaRoche, among others. This game has 10 runs in it somewhere, IMO. Mark Ripperger will be behind the plate, and he started the season with 7 straight "unders" and has regressed to "overs" of late, going "over" in four of the last five. I looked team by team at those early unders - and it was really a collection of great pitchers he called - or in some parks that are notorious pitchers' parks. I have a feeling that the Tigers scored 8 by themselves, so we'll look at their team total as well.
Williams Perez already faced the Pirates this season and didn't fare well. I suppose one could make the argument that he gets to make the adjustments this time, but the Braves are now really hurting without Freeman, and Perez comes in off another 100 pitch game, and he's just not going to pitch deep. The Braves pen has actually been phenomenal lately - so if the Pirates are tested at all against the Reds, I could make an argument for this game staying under.
Max is pitching. Ah, the old fade-the-no-hitter. Well, I rather doubt it, BUT, Harang can do just enough to make the RL a potentially viable option. Obviously someone agrees, they set that total at 6.5 which means taking the +1.5 for basically nothing is getting 23% of the runs before the game starts.
I guess the instinctive thing to do is to take Cueto and the Reds, assuming that the Mets cannot win two straight, and only won on Thursday because DeGrom shutout the Brewers. It's not like the lit up the scoreboard. Since the Reds haven't seen Syndergaard, I could make an excellent case for the Mets F5 or the game because Cueto has had extra rest due to his elbow - so that simply cannot be a good thing. And the Red are playing late in Pittsburgh since the game was delayed.
I was a little surprised to see the Dodgers that cheap, which may be a yellow flag. Anderson is a ground-ball pitcher extraordinaire so we can always rule out betting the over when he pitches. The Fish have pretty much all seen him exactly once, and obviously the Dodgers haven't seen Nicolino. If he shutout the Red in Cincinnati for 7 innings (on four hits, walking two) then he can shut down the Dodgers in Miami. Because of the lack of familiarity I can make a case for the under as well as the Fish F5 innings because I don't trust their bullpen, and the Cardinals and Reds abused their bullpen this week.
I guess the instinctive thing to do is to take Lackey and the Cardinals at only -130. As I type this the Cardinals are clinging to a one-run lead in Miami so they'll be home late and after playing a potentially stressful game. I'd like to find a way to take the Cubs here, but Arrieta just threw 122 pitches against the Twins and threw a complete game. However, he has done very well against the Cardinals in his career, so at least I could make a case for the under. Molina is catching the Fish game, so he may have a day off tomorrow.
I am waiting for Robbie Ray to implode. He's now thrown four straight 100+ pitch games and was just hit pretty hard at San Diego, a team that does hit lefties better than righties. So, now he gets to face them again. You know I'd like to assume he pitches better - but taking Arizona after their poor bullpen meltdown in Colorado isn't something I am lining up to do. By the same token I am not enamored to hop on the Padres yet, even with Ross, since they emptied their bullpen and allowed 13 runs to the Giants (where were all those runs Wednesday). However, Ross hasn't allowed a jack since April and the D-backs don't have the offense that's going to string together a bunch of hits. So, F5 under here might be very doable and I could really only reluctantly take San Diego at this point.
I'm a little surprised Toronto isn't more than -165. Almost want to just fire that now - but there are reasons for everything. Toronto had the day off Thursday while the Rangers were having another bullpen meltdown, so with that in mind ANY notion of taking Texas would strictly be a F5 thing. And I do like Nick Martinez. He's only allowed more than three runs once, against the White Sox earlier this month, and if I am not mistaken we bet on the Rangers that night. And since the Blue Jays haven't seen much of him, I COULD see a F5 bet there at that price. Buerhle is going to keep the ball on the ground - but he CAN be hit and many of the Rangers have hit him - so I would not rule out Texas F5 or the under.
Obviously the first thing that comes to mind is how can we not take Kluber at -125 so I will almost always look not to. The issue I would have here is that means taking Chen, who hasn't pitched in 10 days. However, it was due to fatigue (the reason he hasn't pitched) and not an arm issue. Cleveland doesn't have much of an offense and is 11-18 against left handed pitchers, so taking Baltimore a a hime dog is not out of the question. However, the Indians bullpen has been very good lately and with Kluber they shouldn't need a ton of it, and the Orioles' pen has been great for two months. The downside is that the Orioles are not rested and Cleveland is. This has under written on it, too.
There is probably no way I can find to take Boston. Porcello hasn't really come around at all and he's given up too many bombs, 13 in 86 innings. Add that to the fact that the younger Rays saw him a month ago and lost 2-0. Colome has actually been worse at the Trop (a big-time pitchers' park) than he has on the road. He did one-hit Cleveland last week (and lost 1-0) but we don't know what kind of lineup Boston will put out. Boston fell apart against the Orioles Thursday so they cannot be a very happy team leaving Logan Airport. The Rays had been at home and had the day off, so I could really only take the Rays here. They haven't been putting up runs, so perhaps another under here as well.
I have to wonder if it's time that Houston was a little over valued now. That time WILL come and I was going to take the Yankees against Keuchel had we not got destroyed early on Thursday. Eovaldi has been throwing reasonably well except for that one hammering his old team (Miami) gave him - and of course coming from the NL the Astros haven't seen him. That'd be a NYY F5 more than likely. Velasquez is probably only good for 5 innings, 6 at the absolute max. He's had a hard time getting the ball over the plate, and the way New York had been hitting coming in the Thursday night game, I would love the Yankees here. This game is all based on what happens between Keuchel and Adam Warren.
I don't totally understand the Royals with arguably their bet pitcher being +120 to Oakland, who flys back from Texas while the Royals lay in wait. But, then there is Jesse Hahn who has allowed exactly three homers in 84 innings this season - and the Royals haven't seen much of him at all. Another game that may well stay under - especially in Oakland which may be the best pitchers' park in baseball. Royals bullpen very rested, too, so this could be the first team to three wins.
I guess I need to embrace the possibility that I will bet on Shoemaker again one day. He is simply a feast or famine type guy. His pitches don't change speed that much so teams that can adjust (like Oakland who usually own him) will fare well. The problem here is that Seattle isn't one of the smartest teams, nor have they had a lot of individual success against Shoemaker. Walker is very similar in that he is very good or very bad. The Angles haven't seen him, so perhaps the first time through the order he gets by, but the Angels ARE a good "adjusting" team with so many veterans. I have to reluctantly say that I do think it's the Angels' game to lose.
Well, Milwaukee proved why I can't take them anytime soon, and Lohse has been proving that we can't take him most of the season. However, it IS Minnesota and it IS a road game for the Twins. The issue for me here is that the Twins get no DH but the bigger problem is that their bullpen has been horrible. With that in mind this is one game I do think may go over the number - if Milwaukee can get out of their own way. I know the Brewers haven't seen May, but even in the AL he rarely pitches deep at all. I could see, and I cannot believe I am typing this, a case for the Brewers here.
Oh, and since I like all these "unders" maybe the Grand Salami under - I should make GOY play on that. No, probably NOT a great idea. But, the bet is.