After all was said and done last night our free play on the Cubs cashed as well as our biggest bet of the night on Oakland. Thanks to those that followed.
970 MIN / 969 CWSOVER 7 Sportsbook.ag
That's a steep price to pay for Cole IMO. I would grant you that he's potentially a Cy Young candidate - but the Reds beat him earlier this season - and individually in a very limited sample size they've hit him. Certainly not enough to suggest betting on the Reds, but enough to make me stop and think if the +1.5 is viable, especially with a lower scoring game expected - making the RL more a more attractive and a more expensive option. Leake has fared pretty well against most of the Pirates regulars - and away from the tiny park in Cincinnati he's been much more solid, holding hitters to a .199 BAA. Again, not a huge sample size, but certainly enough for me not to use the Pirates anywhere.
I'm a little surprised that the Nationals are that expensive over a team that's seen him so often and has had pretty good success against him. Add that to the kind of year he's having - a WHIP of 1.37 which is exponentially higher than it usually is (for him - it's average compared to the league). Without Freeman Atlanta swept the Mets, but the most uplifting thing if your a Braves fan is that their bullpen pitcher very well. Shelby Miller has only allowed four earned runs in one start this season, and HIS WHIP is a very respectable 1.07. I do like Atlanta here, RL and F5.
What is wrong with this picture - Jaime Garcia hasn't allowed a run in two straight starts and induces a ton of ground ball outs, now in a big stadium - and the Cardinals are only -125 or so. That's either total disrespect for him or heaping too much respect on Latos, or the fact that Miami is, or Miami has destroyed him in the past, which they have not. In fact they've not seen much of him at all. I doubt I could blink twice on this one, give that Miami's bullpen is perhaps one of the worst in the league, with or without Holliday and Adams. If Yadier plays, I'll bet on St. Louis more than likely.
The tale of two pitchers is what's got the Dodgers and Bolsinger an underdog. Interestingly enough, Hendricks has been much better at Wrigley - only a 1.04 WHIP, while Bolsinger on the road has a 1.64 WHIP (a number that would get many pitchers a bus ticket to AAA). With that in mind and taking into account what happens in Tuesday's game, I'll more than likely be on the Cubs.
Nelson has his ocassional very good outing and then regresses. He's been awful in four of his last five starts, but we don't bet on the "due theory" so there's little or no chance I back Milwaukee. The Brewers have already hammered Colon once this season and what's interesting is it was the first time many of the Brewers had seen him. My guess is that if the Mets win Monday, they win Tuesday. I'm not sure the Brewers should be favored over the Mets just because of this particular pitching matchup.
Too many walks and not enough strikeouts to back Allen Webster and the D-Backs on the road. It's not unlike those are new things since he put up similar numbers with Boston, so that would lead me to think the Rockies score plenty. Hale came up through the Braves organization and they do know how to develop pitchers. He hasn't been very solid lately but the one thing he does not do is walk people. Based on that alone he gets the edge, but the Rockies don't have a bullpen, so this could be yet another "over" in Coors Field.
When I see Vogelsong starting I want to fade him like the rest of the world, probably, and this may be a case where we can do it. He's off a high pitch count game, and that's not been a good thing for him the next time out. Add that to the fact that he beat the Padres (badly) earlier this season. Kennedy has come around nicely in his last two starts against the Dodgers at home and on the road in Oakland. The downside is that both Belt and Posey destroy him. Maybe the over.