I really think the Toronto/BOSTON game last night helps illustrate how many pro bettors get the money.
Boston was fighting for a playoff bid, and opened -4 on the over night line vs. Toronto which looked to be a solid number. However, the oddsmakers overlooked two key facts:
1. Boston would clinch a playoff bid if Brooklyn lost to the Bulls
2. Boston would be in the No7 slot, and would have incentive to actually lose to try to fall to no8 and avoid the Cavs.
Several sharp bettors played the correlated parlay Bulls MoneyLine (or -2) to Toronto +4. Other sharps chose to just wait it out, confident the line would stay up even if the Bulls won.
As it turned out the Bulls crushed Brooklyn, so you could jam in Toronto plus 4 anytime late in the Brooklyn game. After the game ended, the bettors were busy with the Monday card, and Toronto Plus 4 just sat out there in the evening. A few sharp books pulled the game down but many kept it up.
Fast forward to Tuesday morning, and the market woke up realizing what was going on, and BOOM, Toronto was the favorite -1.5 steaming higher. Then Boston inexplicably announced they were going to play the game to win (which makes ZERO sense). The markets reacted but were still somewhat skeptical, and the line wound up closing pick.
The sharps who were following all this, as the news/information was coming in, wound up with Tor +4 in their pockets, and then Boston +2 and even +2.5. BOTH bets were really good bets. They became great bets when Boston hit a 21 footer with 1 second left to win by 2, but the bottom line was this WAS an information game, and if you reacted quickly to the information as it came out you got a winner, regardless of which side you bet.
In our business, it's sexy to make a strong case for a clear cut 'right side', but my experience on these big line moves has been that they win if you get at it early, but it gets really difficult when you play it late. and more often than not the better play is to FADE a big line move.
Look no further than the NBA "must win" teams this past week, where New Orleans opened -10, closed -13.5. New Orleans wins by 12. Sure, I am cherry picking the games where the line matters, but my experience has always been, the winners get at these 'good story' bets early, and get it done, the followers struggle who get at the good story late.
On the handicapping front, we have had a dream NBA season, and the regular season concludes tonight, and I have a rock solid strong 2* best bet, and will be looking to add to it with additional plays:
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY