(521) CINCINNATI vs. (522) KENTUCKY
FREE PICK: (522) KENTUCKY -16.5
Here’s a play that has nothing to do with garnering value. There’s none to be had when it comes to Kentucky. One will either pay the premium when choosing to back the Wildcats, or will be in nervous mode hoping the Wildcats don’t bring the “A” game if taking the points against them.
I’m all about the matchup when it comes to this game. Long story short, I don’t see Cincinnati as a very effective offense and unless they have a light out day shooting the basketball, I have no idea how this team is going to generate many good scoring chances against the Wildcats.
Cincinnati is a grinder. They play physically, and love to ugly it up. That’s a recipe for success that has mostly served them well. But I fail to comprehend how this style can work against Kentucky. The ‘Cats are enormous and the only chance for the Bearcats, at least the way I see it, is to get lucky with transition points off Kentucky misses and hope for the best.
Kentucky is nothing short of amazing on defense. The numbers for this team are downright absurd. The only close calls were in games where the Wildcats either shot it really poorly or happened to run into an opponent that was knocking down attempts at a rate way above their norm. That could happen here, but it’s not the favorite, let’s put it that way.
Here’s more potentially bad news for Cincinnati. The Wildcats barely broke a sweat in their opening round romp. They’ll be fresh as the proverbial daisies today. The Bearcats have to to bounce back quickly from a tense OT win on Thursday. Advantage Kentucky.
The fact it’s a neighborhood battle of sorts is also probably trouble for Cincinnati. Maybe Kentucky gets caught yawning against an adversary that’s not for the same region. But matched up against an opponent who’s basically right next door should fuel the Wildcats interest level.
There’s no such thing as a bargain with this powerhouse, and sure enough the line has probably been inflated from the power ratings by a basket or so. But sometimes one has to simply pay the price. I just don’t see this being competitive over 40 minutes and off a lazy second half against outmanned Hampton, my sense is that the favorite brings its best today. If that’s the case, there’s every chance this is a blowout, so I’m siding with Kentucky to obtain the win and cover.