I had a solid winning steak disrupted last night. One of my losses was particularly troubling, I went with the Lakers -135 early in the morning, when the money was coming in against the Nuggets.
Fast Forward to later in the day, the money is POURING in on Denver, the line is pk'm, and sharps are on the other side. Somehow the ball bounces right for the Lakers and they take a 3 point halftime lead, but I am too proud to dump the play and play back Denver. Denver takes command and wins easily.
I hear all the time "Trust Your instincts", "Go with your Gut!' "Believe in Yourself". Maybe that's great advice in other things, but it is LOUSY advice for most gamblers. Most gamblers DO EXACTLY THAT, and get their teeth kicked in. A much better piece of advice is "CHECK YOUR EGO AT THE DOOR and OPEN UP YOUR EARS".
Last night on KenT's show I offered an opinion that OkST likely looked good today. That was based on my 1st handicap. My 1st handicap usually isn't good enough to bet, it's just a 1st look evaluation. Fast forward to 9am PST, and I know OKC is a lemon.
Bottom line, we all LOVE to get good plays out EARLY, but NOTHING is worse than giving out a bad play early and then having two horrible options: Stick with it and lose, OR look bad and admit you no longer like it.
I'm VERY good at getting on the right side of early football plays, but in baskets I typically do better AFTER getting key info from trusted sources. Lemons will DESTROY your bankroll....you cannot lay -110 on 46 pct bets.....they HAVE to be avoided.
On the handicapping front I am working hard on the card, no releases yet.