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In the NFL a line opens pk and closes 3. All things being equal, where is the value?
I keep hearing folks debate which is stronger, the opener or the closer. The answer in ALMOST all cases is the closer (the only exception is typically when the public embraces a team irrationally.....an example would be when the Pats were 8-0 in the their 16-0 season, and they went down in flames ATS despite going 8-0 SU the 2nd half of the year)
Getting back to the NFL openers, follks would be SHOCKED how 'soft' many openers are . I've often said two guys throw some stuff up, deal limited numbers, and these openers can often be weak. However, "everyone" has decent power ratings right now, no way even weak openers are going to be totally off, BUT they will be off.
Having said this, typically what happens is the Pros get solid value, jam in good bets, and then the followers find out what they bet, and try to get on those plays at worse numbers.
The end result is that typically the 'correct' answer is somewhere in between, but ususally the closer is closer to 'correct' than the opener......so in this example, Getting the Pk bet is likely better than the +3 bet, but both may well have value.......