Here is our write-up on the Cowboys over the Saints:
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Dallas has a terrific offense and a strong rushing game and that is how you beat New Orleans as the host. The Cowboys have averaged 156 rushing yards per game this season and this is third in the league behind Pittsburgh and the Jets. The place will be rockin and the Saints have a tendency to struggle in these spots.
New Orleans is 0-7 ATS (-11.50 ppg) as a road favorite on artificial turf after playing at home. They lost straight up to St Louis and to the Jets in this spot last season. The SDQL text is:
team=Saints and AF and surface=artificial and p:H and date>=20091101
The Saints really struggled to score points vs the Vikings last week, winning only 20-9. Jimmy Graham did catch some passes, but the longest was only 15 yards. New Orleans is 0-6 ATS on the road after a game in which Graham did not have a 20-plus yard reception and 0-7 ATS before week six when they are off a game in which they scored at least 10 fewer points than expected. The SDQL text for the latter of these two is:
team=Saints and p:dps <= -10 and week < 6 and season >= 2004
The Saints are 1-2 this season with their lone win of the season against the Vikings, which were not only missing Adrian Peterson, but their starting QB was knocked out in the second quarter as well. They should not be a road favorite in Dallas.
The Cowboys had a very nice balanced offensive attack against the Rams last week and won 34-31 despite a pick-six thrown by Romo. Dallas is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a home dog off a game in which they scored more than 20 points without throwing more than 40 passes.
We don’t think that the Saints will force many punts here and we expect that one of these two teams will be driving down the field within the last minute of the game for the win. Grab the three points.
MTi’s FORECAST: DALLAS 31 New Orleans 30
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We're serious about winning. We perform the research with the SDQL and uncover situations that are not already factored into the line. Factors like injuries are already factored into the line and this can't provide line value. We passed on the previous two Monday Night games because we could not find line value. Tonight's game has plenty. We have a double play with a write up similar to the one posted above.