Here is the write-up:
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The Falcons have benefitted from seven turnovers over their first three games and this has inflated their value somewhat. Minnesota has been a solid investment against teams that have benefitted from turnovers, going 9-0 ATS at home when the line is within three points of pick and their opponent has benefitted from an average of at least 2.3 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Vikings have covered by an average of 16.0 ppg in this spot, winning by an average of 15.1 ppg despite the line being close to pick.
Minnesota is also 7-0 ATS (+14.86 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick vs a non-divisional opponent with divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks and 7-0 ATS (+9.29 ppg) at home when facing a team that has scored less than 1/6 of their total points from field goals.
The Falcons’ strength has been their passing game as they lead the league in passing yards per game this season at 333.7 and have averaged 16.3 passing first downs per game and 12.7 yards per completion with a completion percentage of 68.7% The Vikings have done well against similar teams, as they are 9-0 ATS when hosting a team with an average completion percentage of 65%-plus, as long as they are not a TD-plus dog. The SDQL text is:
team=Vikings and H and line<7 and oS(COMP)/oS(passes)>=0.65 and season>=2005
The Falcons are off a monster blowout of the Bucs on Thursday Night Football, but road favorites are 0-11 ATS the week after a home game in which they scored 34-plus points.
As a team, Atlanta is 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS on the road when the line is within three of pick and they are on a one game SU and ATS winning streak. The SDQL text is:
team=Falcons and A and streak=1 and ats streak = 1 and -3 <= line <= 3 and season >= 1999
Last season they were in this spot twice and lost in both Miami and Arizona.
It is also worth mentioning that the Falcons are 0-6 ATS after a win in which they had a pick-six, losing every game straight up and 0-9 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.25, losing every game straight up and failing to cover by an average of 8.5 ppg. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Falcons and A and -3 <= line <= 3 and oA(rushes)<25.25 and season >= 2002
Minnesota started off the season with a 34-6 romp over the Rams and then ran into the Patriots off a loss in their opener and then they caught the 0-2 Saints in New Orleans – those were two VERY TOUGH spots. Here they get a very content 2-1 Falcons team off a blowout win. The Vikings should be ready to smash the Falcons in the chops. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: Minnesota 31 ATLANTA 27
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We're serious about winning. We perform the research with the SDQL and uncover situations that are not already factored into the line. Factors like injuries are already factored into the line and this can't provide line value. We passed on the previous two Monday Night games because we could not find line value. Tonight's game qualifies. We have a double play with a write up similar to the one posted above.