1st Rd. Oklahoma Vs. UConn #MarchMadness#NCAATournament#UConnBasketball#OklahomaBasketball

Mar 20, 2025 · Griffin Warner & Big East Ben · 55 Views

🏀 1st Round Breakdown: Oklahoma vs. UConn
This transcript captures a detailed podcast discussion between Griffin Warner and Big East Ben, analyzing the NCAA 1st round matchup between Oklahoma and UConn. The commentary offers insights on team performance trends, betting lines, and individual player highlights based solely on observations and opinions from the speakers.

🧠 Conclusion
In their in-depth preview, Griffin Warner and Big East Ben highlight UConn's offensive capabilities and historical dominance in NCAA games, particularly focusing on their hallmark "UConn run." UConn is a 5.5-point favorite, having covered 12 consecutive NCAA tournament games. However, both analysts express skepticism about UConn’s defensive capabilities this season. Oklahoma, led by Jeremiah Fears—a possible lottery pick—is recognized for its athleticism but lacks coaching conviction from Porter Moser. Despite UConn’s explosive offense, Big East Ben leans toward betting the game over 147.5 total points, while Griffin favors Oklahoma to cover the spread due to UConn's shaky defense. The matchup promises offensive fireworks but defensive vulnerabilities on both ends.

📊 Key Points
📈 Betting Line Movement: The point spread opened around 4 and moved up to 5.5 in favor of UConn, signaling betting momentum for the Huskies.

🧨 UConn's NCAA Streak: UConn has covered the spread in 12 straight NCAA tournament games, a key stat driving Big East Ben’s confidence.

🕹 The "UConn Thing": Defined by explosive second-half runs, notably seen against Illinois last year and Villanova recently—these runs are game-breaking and symbolize UConn’s peak form.

🚫 Defensive Gaps: Both speakers emphasize UConn’s lack of perimeter defense and Oklahoma’s late-season struggles, especially defensively.

🎯 Total Points Projection: Big East Ben leans toward betting the over (147.5) based on both teams’ inability to defend consistently.

🎯 Coach Commentary: Dan Hurley coaches UConn "for now," with Ben joking about potential job shifts; skepticism exists over Porter Moser’s offensive system at Oklahoma.

🏀 Player Highlight - Jeremiah Fears: Griffin mentions Jeremiah Fears as a projected top NBA draft pick and critical to Oklahoma’s success.

💥 Recent UConn Games: A mix of explosive wins (e.g., Villanova) and defensive lapses (e.g., Creighton shooting 70% first half), making UConn’s performance unpredictable.

📍 Game Location: Matchup is set in Raleigh, NC, and considered the "late game."

🛡 Underdog Support: Despite UConn's strength, Griffin prefers taking Oklahoma with the points due to defensive concerns.

📝 Summary
[0:00–0:40] Griffin Warner outlines the matchup between Oklahoma and UConn, noting it's an 8-9 seed clash with the winner likely facing Auburn. UConn enters as a 5.5-point favorite, with the game hosted in Raleigh.

[0:42–1:18] Big East Ben highlights UConn’s NCAA betting dominance, having covered 12 consecutive tournament games. He clarifies he only bet on them in three of their six wins. He calls out UConn’s poor defense, especially perimeter defense, despite their offensive runs.

[1:18–1:20] Griffin Warner names Dan Hurley as UConn’s coach.

[1:21–1:27] Big East Ben questions Hurley’s long-term stay, hinting at Iowa job rumors.

[1:28–1:34] Griffin Warner mentions Indiana filled its role, sarcastically invites West Virginia to a "real conference."

[1:35–1:45] Big East Ben notes the betting line opened at 4 and rose to 5.5 in favor of UConn.

[1:49–2:00] Griffin Warner admits he didn’t catch early line movements due to focusing on bracket release.

[2:01–2:29] Big East Ben recalls UConn’s dominant play vs Villanova and explains the “UConn thing” as a huge game-breaking run, like in last year’s Sweet 16 vs Illinois.

[2:30–2:33] Griffin Warner jokes that not everyone can go back and watch old games.

[2:34–3:13] Big East Ben says UConn's performance slipped in their Big East semifinal against Creighton, especially defensively (Creighton shot 70% in the first half). He doesn’t trust either team’s defense and favors betting the game over 147.5 total points.

[3:14–3:18] Griffin Warner hints he likes Oklahoma slightly more than UConn.

[3:18–3:26] Big East Ben warns about “fading Hurley” and cites UConn’s perfect 12-0 tournament streak.

[3:26–4:42] Griffin Warner elaborates that past UConn teams could defend—unlike this one. He doesn’t believe in their defense despite recent offensive flurries like the Villanova game or Liam McNeely’s 38-point comeback from injury at Creighton. He appreciates Oklahoma’s talent, especially Jeremiah Fears, but questions Coach Moser’s tactics. He chooses Oklahoma to cover the spread.

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Topics: CBB

Oregon Vs. Liberty NCAA Tournament Preview + Double Best Bet! #MarchMadness #collegebasketball

Mar 20, 2025 23 Views

Oregon Vs. Liberty NCAA Tournament Preview + Double Best Bet! #MarchMadness #collegebasketball

Aj Hoffman and Steve Fezzik both Best Bet Oregon -7 against Liberty in the NCAA tournament!

🏀 Oregon vs. Liberty NCAA Tournament Preview: Transcript-Based Summary
This transcript captures a detailed discussion between Scott Seidenberg, AJ Hoffman, RJ Bell, and Steve Fezzik, providing a preview and betting perspective on the NCAA Tournament matchup between #5 seed Oregon and #12 seed Liberty. Oregon is listed as a seven-point favorite, and all three analysts ultimately side with Oregon based on physical matchups, travel implications, and overall depth.

🧠 Conclusion (with Spoilers)
The panel predicts Oregon will dominate the matchup against Liberty. AJ Hoffman emphasizes the size mismatch and Liberty’s weak rebounding, while Steve Fezzik highlights the disadvantage of Liberty traveling across the country to face a partisan Oregon crowd in Seattle. RJ Bell notes the analytics respect for Liberty, but this is challenged by the "eye test" and Liberty’s lack of quality competition. The group collectively points out that Liberty may struggle late due to time zone differences and lack of depth, predicting Oregon to pull away as the game progresses. All best bets were placed in favor of Oregon.

🔑 Key Points (Key Insights)
📏 Size Disparity: Oregon holds a substantial advantage in physical size, particularly in the front court, which Liberty is ill-equipped to match up against.

📉 Liberty's Undersized Backcourt: Liberty's two main guards are under six feet (5’9” and 5’10”), which AJ Hoffman believes will lead to mismatches and foul trouble.

🔢 Liberty Record: Liberty boasts a 28–6 record, but that comes with the caveat of a very weak strength of schedule, per Steve Fezzik.

📊 Analytical Darling: Liberty ranks well in advanced metrics like effective field goal percentage and overall efficiency, making them an "analytics darling" according to AJ and RJ.

🏀 Rebounding Concerns: Liberty is criticized for its complete lack of rebounding ability, seen as a critical weakness against a big team like Oregon.

🚫 Lack of Depth: Liberty’s bench is described as weak, with limited impact players, especially in a high-stakes tournament scenario.

🧳 Travel Factor: Liberty must travel from Lynchburg, Virginia to Seattle, Washington, a cross-country trip with a three-hour time difference and a 10:10 PM EST tipoff.

📍 Crowd Advantage: The Seattle location ensures a pro-Oregon crowd, expected to be heavily "liquored up" and energizing the Ducks.

⛪ School Culture: Liberty’s religious background may further affect their adjustment to the late-night atmosphere of the West Coast game.

🎓 Coaching Experience: Oregon’s head coach is lauded by Fezzik as a "tournament type coach" whose teams improve as the season progresses.

📚 Summary
[Scott Seidenberg (0:00)]: Sets the stage by noting Oregon is a 7-point favorite over Liberty.

[AJ Hoffman (0:06–1:40)]: Names Oregon his best bet, citing a severe size mismatch. He details how Liberty’s undersized backcourt (5’9” and 5’10”) can’t contend physically, especially without frontcourt player Isaiah Enan, who’s missed most of the season. Oregon’s rebounding and interior dominance are emphasized, and Liberty’s only hope is hot three-point shooting, which AJ doubts will suffice. He also flags Liberty's lack of depth and foul trouble risks.

[RJ Bell (1:40–2:07)]: Questions the point spread, suggesting Liberty is being given a surprising amount of respect. Thinks the line should be closer to 12, not 7.

[AJ Hoffman (2:08–2:29)]: Reiterates Liberty’s strong analytics—particularly effective field goal percentage—but asserts that their metrics don’t align with visual performance ("eye test"). Believes Liberty will be physically overmatched.

[RJ Bell (2:29–2:50)]: Acknowledges Liberty meets most analytic benchmarks but warns these ignore strength of schedule.

[Steve Fezzik (2:50–2:58)]: Confirms Liberty’s 28–6 record.

[Scott Seidenberg + RJ Bell (3:02–3:06)]: Discuss Liberty's one previous trip to the West Coast earlier in the season, playing Seattle U.

[RJ Bell (3:24)]: Notes Tovik’s metrics only favor Oregon by two points, again emphasizing Liberty’s statistical strengths.

[Steve Fezzik (3:32–4:06)]: Doubles down on Oregon as his best bet. Highlights Liberty’s travel burden, the late game start (10:10 PM EST), and anticipates the partisan Oregon crowd will be a major factor. Notes Oregon’s coach improves his teams late in the season.

[RJ Bell + Steve Fezzik (4:06–4:19)]: Light-heartedly observe that Liberty, being a religious school, might be at a disadvantage late at night—"not up at midnight, doing their prayers."

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1st Rd / New Mexico Vs. Marquette #MarchMadness#MarquetteBasketball#NewMexicoLobos#NCAATournament

Mar 20, 2025 · Griffin Warner & Big East Ben · 56 Views

🏀 Marquette vs. New Mexico - 1st Round Analysis (Transcript-Only)
This summary is a detailed breakdown of the Marquette vs. New Mexico NCAA tournament preview, exclusively based on the transcript from the conversation between Griffin Warner and Big East Ben. Each quote is timestamped and analyzed. Player and team statistics are discussed only as mentioned in the dialogue.

🎯 Conclusion
In a matchup between the Marquette Golden Eagles and New Mexico Lobos, the speakers provide sharp analysis, humorous banter, and strategic insights. The conversation highlights Marquette's shooting woes and defensive strategies while also addressing New Mexico’s tendencies and key player matchups. The speakers favor the underdog point spread (+4) for New Mexico, though remain skeptical of a clear winner. The predicted game tempo and styles suggest a low-scoring affair, prompting a betting suggestion on the under (total set at 153). Overall, while Marquette has certain matchups in its favor—particularly defensively—concerns about offensive performance and New Mexico’s energy remain central themes.

🔑 Key Points
🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Key Matchup: The Cam Jones vs. Donovan Dent matchup was hyped as the best 1-on-1 in the first round, though it won’t happen directly due to defensive assignments.

🛡️ Defensive Strategy: Stevie Mitchell is expected to defend Dent, indicating Marquette’s prioritization of stopping New Mexico’s lead guard.

🎯 Ben Gold's Role: Ben Gold was criticized despite a strong prior game—highlighting a zero-shot performance against St. John's. His role as a floor stretcher is under scrutiny.

🧠 Coaching Angle: Speculation about Rick Pitino helping son Richard (New Mexico’s coach) with scouting Marquette was brought up but dismissed humorously.

🦷 Comic Relief: Personal jokes about braces and bad teeth added levity mid-conversation but held no strategic relevance.

📉 Betting Insight: Big East Ben advised betting under 153 due to both teams' poor shooting and efficient ball-handling.

🚫 Three-Point Limitations: Marquette "can't shoot" and New Mexico "doesn't shoot threes" – critical insight for pacing and scoring predictions.

⛹️ Donovan Dent’s Profile: Known more as a driver than shooter, which makes him susceptible to containment by a good perimeter defender.

📊 Possession Play: New Mexico is criticized for "sleepwalking through possessions," suggesting inconsistency that Marquette could exploit.

🏀 Final Bet: Despite favoring New Mexico +4, neither speaker is confident enough in Marquette’s margin to take the spread.

📘 Summary
[0:00 - 0:16] Game Introduction: Griffin Warner frames this as a top-tier competitive matchup, with Marquette favored by four points and a high total of 152, labeling it a marquee game of the round.

[0:19 - 0:28] Humor with 'Lol' the Dog: Big East Ben makes a humorous segue, referencing his dog whose name ("L") echoes the nickname of one team, a light opener to the breakdown.

[0:32 - 0:43] Matchup Highlight: Ben identifies the best individual duel—Cam Jones (Marquette) vs. Donovan Dent (New Mexico)—though it’s undercut by the revelation that they won’t actually guard each other.

[0:53 - 1:07] Defensive Assignments: Stevie Mitchell will cover Donovan Dent. Concern shifts to the interior, where Ben Gold may struggle against Nelly Jr. Joseph—a physical advantage for New Mexico.

[1:10 - 1:31] Ben Gold Analysis: Despite praise for his St. John’s performance, Ben Gold was ineffective offensively (no shots attempted). This exposes a critical weakness in Marquette’s rotation depth.

[1:41 - 2:12] Pitino Factor: Ben jokingly imagines Richard Pitino seeking help from father Rick Pitino to scout Marquette, quickly dismissed as unlikely with a laugh.

[2:38 - 3:28] Betting Strategy: Ben leans heavily toward the under 153, citing Marquette’s shooting issues and both teams’ efficient ball handling. New Mexico’s transition game is seen as limited by Marquette’s defense.

[3:29 - 3:58] Plus Four Spread: Griffin agrees with taking New Mexico +4 but remains unsure if Marquette can cover more than a single-possession spread. He praises Mitchell’s ability to “cut the head off the snake” in reference to containing Dent.

[3:58 - 4:15] Tangent on Michigan State: The conversation abruptly shifts to a humorous note about Michigan State’s opponent Bryant and a police video involving Grasso, bringing an off-topic but amusing close.

[0:00 - 4:15] Overall Strategy: Emphasis on New Mexico’s sloppy possessions vs. Marquette’s defensive edge, yet doubt over Marquette’s ability to dominate—leaving both speakers wary but leaning slightly toward betting angles, not outcomes.

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Topics: CBB

CBB Title Pick w/ Scott Seidenberg MarchMadness 🏀 #NCAAChampionship

Mar 13, 2025 · Scott Seidenberg · 109 Views

Summary of "CBB Title Pick w/ Scott Seidenberg"
This discussion, led by Scott Seidenberg, RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers, focuses on predicting the NCAA basketball national champion using historical trends and statistical analysis. Seidenberg identifies key metrics that have defined past champions, narrows the list of contenders, and ultimately picks Houston as the 2024 NCAA champion based on guard play, three-point shooting, and coaching pedigree.

Key Points & Analysis (with Timestamps)
🔹 Historical Trends & Championship Metrics (0:00 - 1:18)
Scott Seidenberg highlights a widely circulated trend: 96% of national champions since 2001 had a top-21 KenPom offense, and 91% had a top-31 KenPom defense.
He refines this by considering only teams that were top 20 in both offense and defense over the last 20 years.
Finding: 18 of the last 20 champions met this criterion, with only two exceptions—2014 UConn and 2021 Baylor.
🔹 Identifying This Year’s Contenders (1:18 - 2:12)
Only four teams currently rank top 20 in both categories:
Auburn (#1 offense, #14 defense)
Duke (#2 offense, #4 defense)
Florida (#3 offense, #11 defense)
Houston (#9 offense, #2 defense)
🔹 Confirming KenPom's Role (2:28 - 3:35)
Seidenberg notes that every champion (except 2014 UConn) ranked top 10 overall in KenPom pre-tournament.
The four teams listed above are also the top four overall in KenPom.
🔹 The Coaching Factor (3:35 - 5:25)
Championship-winning teams usually have long-tenured, elite head coaches.
Hall of Fame-level coaches from past champions: Bill Self, Tony Bennett, Jay Wright, Roy Williams, Coach K, Rick Pitino, John Calipari, Billy Donovan.
Applying this to current teams:
Duke (John Scheyer) and Florida (Todd Golden) are ruled out due to their lack of proven coaching success.
Auburn (Bruce Pearl) and Houston (Kelvin Sampson) remain as contenders.
🔹 Final Decision: Houston Over Auburn (5:25 - 7:28)
Seidenberg chooses Houston as his national champion based on:
Veteran Leadership: Both teams’ best players are seniors.
Three-Point Shooting: Houston ranks 4th nationally, Auburn is 39th.
Guard Play: 12 of the last 20 Most Outstanding Players in the NCAA Tournament were guards.
Houston’s top scorer (LJ Cryer) is a guard.
Auburn’s top scorer (Jani Broome) is a forward.
📌 Final Pick: Houston to win the national championship (+750 odds).

Conclusion
Seidenberg builds a strong case for Houston as the best bet to win the NCAA tournament based on historical patterns, team rankings, coaching experience, and statistical advantages in guard play and three-point shooting. His methodology eliminates teams with weaker coaching resumes and those lacking key historical factors, leaving Houston as the most statistically sound pick for the title.

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Topics: CBB

NCAA - Basic Bracket Betting Strategies

Mar 12, 2018 · Brad Powers & Fezzik · 968 Views

March 13, 2018. Fezzik talks about betting brackets and basic strategies. Handicapped by Pro Bettor Brad Powers - with Steve Fezzik from the Pregame.com Studios in Las Vegas. Get his NCAA Basketball Free Pick: Bracket Betting

Topics: CBB, Steve Fezzik, Brad Powers