Jul 8, 2025
·
Dave Essler
&
sleepyj
·
3 Views
Scottish Open Winner Predictions:
🕠0:00 - 0:07 | Introduction
[Sleepy J] opens the segment by inviting Dave Essler to present his picks for winners of the Scottish Open.
🕠0:08 - 1:17 | Dave Essler’s Predictions
🧠Quote Analysis:
Dave opens with Colin Morikawa at 25 to 1 odds. He emphasizes Morikawa’s 3rd place ranking in driving accuracy, which he considers crucial. A notable development is Morikawa's caddy switch to Billy Foster, a seasoned professional who has caddied for legends like Lee Westwood and Matthew Fitzpatrick, including Fitzpatrick's U.S. Open win. Dave interprets this change as a smart strategic move that could enhance Morikawa’s performance.
Dave also mentions that Scottie Scheffler is a heavy favorite, making Morikawa's odds more attractive as a value bet for the 5th favorite in the field.
The second pick is Sepp Straka at 50 to 1. Although he's been relatively quiet recently, Straka shines in several stats:
6th in shots gained
3rd on approach
11th in driving accuracy
Above average putting skills
Dave notes that although Straka lacks driving distance and has a lower ball flight, the firm fairways could work to his advantage, neutralizing any distance disadvantage. His comment—"what more do you need?"—shows his confidence in this pick.
📊 Player Statistics:
Colin Morikawa: 3rd in driving accuracy
Sepp Straka: 6th in shots gained, 3rd on approach, 11th in driving accuracy, well above-average putting
📌 Key Insight:
Morikawa is seen as an undervalued contender with elite ball control and a strategic caddy change. Straka offers a high-reward potential due to consistent precision and adaptability to course conditions.
🕠1:17 - 3:22 | Sleepy J’s Predictions
🧠Quote Analysis:
Sleepy J counters with Tommy Fleetwood (22 to 1) and Sam Burns (40 to 1).
Fleetwood has had recent ups and downs. He nearly won at the Travelers Championship but "melted down the stretch." However, a two-week break is expected to have him refreshed for the Scottish Open and the upcoming major. His history at this event is solid:
4th, 6th, and 34th place finishes in prior years.
Fleetwood is identified as a serious contender due to current form and familiarity with the course, despite not being a long hitter. Sleepy J argues that the course's shorter length minimizes the disadvantage of Fleetwood’s lack of distance.
Sleepy's second pick is Sam Burns at 40 to 1. Burns has finished 19th or better in his last five events, signaling strong form. This is his third time playing this course, and he finished 19th last year. Sleepy believes this will be "the best Sam Burns that this course is going to see" and that he has a real chance to win.
📊 Player Statistics:
Tommy Fleetwood: Past Scottish Open finishes—4th, 6th, 34th
Sam Burns: Top-19 finishes in last 5 events; 19th last year at this course
📌 Key Insight:
Fleetwood’s form and course familiarity make him a high-potential candidate. Burns is positioned for a breakout due to consistent top-tier performance and course experience.
🧾 Conclusion
The discussion ends on a note of consensus and optimism. Both speakers present statistically grounded picks with minimal disagreement. Fleetwood, Morikawa, Burns, and Straka are the featured contenders, each with unique strengths tailored to the Scottish Open’s demands. The combination of player form, course suitability, and strategic elements (like caddy changes) shapes a compelling preview of potential winners.
🧠Key Points
📊 Morikawa’s driving precision: Ranked 3rd in accuracy, paired with elite caddy Billy Foster, boosts his edge.
🧮 Sepp Straka’s all-around stats: 6th in shots gained, 3rd on approach, strong putting—making him well-rounded.
🎯 Fleetwood’s course history: Prior finishes (4th, 6th, 34th) and post-break freshness prime him for success.
🔥 Sam Burns’ momentum: Five straight top-19s and a strong previous Scottish showing signal winning form.
ðŸŒï¸ Low-ball flight advantage: Straka’s lower trajectory may suit the firm fairways better than big hitters.
🎒 Caddy impact: Billy Foster’s veteran presence could be the difference-maker for Morikawa.
📉 Scheffler’s dominance shifts odds: Heavy favoritism inflates value for others like Morikawa.
⛳ Course length considerations: Fleetwood and Straka benefit from a course that doesn’t penalize shorter drives.
🧘 Burns’ form consistency: Ongoing hot streak across multiple events sets the stage for a breakthrough.
🤠High agreement on strong field: Minimal disagreement between analysts reflects mutual confidence in picks.
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