May 19, 2025
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MacKenzie Rivers
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41 Views
📌 Conclusion (Spoilers)
The consensus from both Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers is that the New York Knicks are favored to win the series against the Indiana Pacers, largely due to improved health, key roster additions (Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges), and the impact of Mitchell Robinson on defense. The Knicks are priced at -145 (DraftKings) with Rivers believing the fair value should be closer to -170. Both analysts highlight that New York’s depth, playoff experience, and home-court advantage give them the edge, especially in Game 1. Indiana’s pace and cohesive offense led by Tyrese Haliburton are acknowledged, but seen as insufficient to offset New York’s improvements and defensive strength. Rivers’ best bet is Knicks -4 in Game 1.
🔑 Key Points (Takeaways)
🧠Rivalry renewed: The Pacers and Knicks faced off in past Eastern Conference Finals (1999, 2000) and just last year, increasing emotional stakes.
📊 Current betting line: Knicks favored at -145, Pacers at +125, with sentiment suggesting value lies in the Knicks as the stronger side.
👟 Karl-Anthony Towns impact: Added to the Knicks roster along with Mikal Bridges; expected to be pivotal against the Pacers.
ðŸ›¡ï¸ Mitchell Robinson's defensive presence: Highlighted as a "menace," crucial for defending and closing out shooters, even if his free throws are a liability.
📅 Game 1 importance: Seen as crucial to setting the tone, especially for a revenge-driven Knicks squad.
📉 Pacers' perceived overperformance: Despite their recent run, experts still rate Knicks higher due to talent and cohesion.
💪 Jalen Brunson consistency: Averaging nearly 30 PPG in regular-season games vs. Pacers, showing elite form even with past foot injury.
🧮 Value pick: Karl-Anthony Towns as Finals MVP at 13:1 is considered good value given past playoff performances and current form.
🦶 Injury updates: OG Anunoby, Mitchell Robinson, and Brunson all appear healthy this postseason, in contrast to last year's depleted Knicks lineup.
🎯 Best bet: Mackenzie recommends Knicks -4 in Game 1, with a projected fair series price closer to -170, higher than current odds.
📚 Summary
[0:01] Munaf Manji introduces matchup context: This is a rematch of last season where the Pacers ousted an injured Knicks squad. The series line opens with Knicks -145, Pacers +125.
[1:12] Mackenzie quizzes history: The Knicks’ last East Finals opponent was the Pacers in 1999–2000. He uses this rivalry to set the emotional and historical backdrop of the matchup.
[1:47] Rivers begins team assessment: He outlines how the Pacers have improved via Rick Carlisle’s coaching and a fluid, unselfish offense. Meanwhile, the Knicks gained key players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, with Julius Randle absent in last year’s matchup.
[3:20] Rivers critiques Pacers valuation: Despite Indiana’s recent success against the Cavaliers and Celtics, he finds it hard to justify them being priced closely with the upgraded Knicks.
[4:21] Manji emphasizes health: A main differentiator is that the Knicks are finally healthy. He cites OG Anunoby’s limited play last year and now critical presence along with Bridges and Josh Hart.
[5:11] Spotlight on Mitchell Robinson: His defensive ability, including closing out shooters, is lauded. Manji calls him a critical difference-maker, even with free throw weaknesses.
[6:30] Betting movement analysis: Odds for the Knicks moved from -135 to -145, with other books listing -150 or more. Robinson’s presence is considered undervalued in line setting.
[7:10] Evaluation of Pacers’ playoff path: Manji notes that Indiana beat depleted teams (Milwaukee without Giannis/Lillard, then Cleveland), implying their challenge escalates significantly now.
[8:28] Rivers on playoff roster strategy: He argues depth is less crucial in playoffs than top-tier starters. The Knicks’ elite starting unit trumps Indiana’s ten-man rotation.
[11:17] Brunson and Towns stats: Brunson averages 29.8 PPG in eight regular-season games vs. Pacers. Towns’ past stat lines (40-12, 30-9, 21-15) bolster the 13:1 MVP argument.
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