MLB Tuesday Best Bet From Griffin Warner on RJ Bell’s Dream Preview! #mlbpicks #mlbbets #baseball

Jul 1, 2025 · Griffin Warner · 93 Views

🔹 Bet Recommendation
“I'm going to go with Freddy Peralta, plus 107 underdog on the road at the New York Mets. Brewers have been playing great, the Mets have been playing terribly. I think there is just too much there for a plus price on Milwaukee.”
Analysis: Warner begins by recommending a moneyline bet on the Milwaukee Brewers, particularly emphasizing the +107 underdog odds with Freddy Peralta pitching. His rationale hinges on current form—Brewers on a strong run and Mets performing poorly.
Player Highlight: Freddy Peralta is spotlighted as the starting pitcher. While no explicit stats are given, his inclusion as a best bet candidate suggests solid recent performances.
Odds Note: The +107 price indicates a perceived value bet given Milwaukee's recent form and New York's slump.
🔹 Urgency & Market Movement
“I'm kind of nervous that if our listeners don't jump on this quickly, we might even see the Milwaukee Brewers climb towards a favorite.”
Analysis: Warner cautions listeners that betting markets may quickly adjust. His concern over line movement implies anticipated public or sharp betting on the Brewers, which could reduce the current value.
Betting Strategy Tip: He urges listeners to act fast to secure favorable odds, suggesting that this pick could close closer to even or Milwaukee as a slight favorite.
“It's only $0.07 right now bet online and probably will be somewhere over there. I would jump on this quicker than wait.”
Analysis: He references a small $0.07 (7-cent) line difference, meaning the market is already moving. This supports the idea that sharp money may already be influencing the odds.
🔹 Mets' Recent Form & Schedule Critique
“We just haven't seen it from the Mets. Closest favorites, an entire three-game sweep on the road at Pittsburgh.”
Team Analysis: Warner critiques the New York Mets, pointing out that their only notable success recently was a sweep against Pittsburgh.
Context: Implies that their strength of schedule is weak and their form doesn't justify current odds.
“I think there's a lot of flaws in the Mets' bullpen. You could argue there are lots of flaws everywhere else.”
Team Weakness: Strong criticism of the Mets’ bullpen, labeled as having “a lot of flaws.” He even broadens this to flaws across the team, indicating a systemic issue.
“Got really fat and happy off a pretty weak schedule to start the season.”
Schedule-Based Insight: Warner attributes the Mets’ early performance to a soft schedule, suggesting they are overvalued due to inflated early wins.
🔹 Brewers’ Comeback Narrative
“And Brewers, who probably couldn't have started out worse, getting swept in the Bronx. They're sneaking up on the Chicago Cubs right now.”
Team Momentum: Contrasts the Brewers’ poor start—swept by the Yankees—with their current resurgence. Notably, they're now closing in on the division-leading Cubs.
Division Context: Indicates Milwaukee has become a competitive force again, making them a high-value pick.
“Certainly a pick that Munaf and I gave out earlier this season.”
Collaboration Mention: Warner references a previous shared recommendation with Munaf, adding credibility and continuity to his current bet.
“It looked dead early, especially when the Cubs went to Milwaukee and the Brewers seem to be losing the first two of every series and stealing the last game not to get swept.”
Game Pattern Insight: Early-season struggles included a pattern of losing the first two games and salvaging the third—suggests improvement from that trend now.
Final Pick Summary
“Well, things have changed and I love what the Brewers are doing lately.”
Sentiment Shift: This statement summarizes the positive momentum Milwaukee has gained, reinforcing Warner's confidence in his pick.
“So go Milwaukee, plus $1.07, Freddy Peralta. Love it.”
Closing Bet Statement: Repeats the pick for clarity and emphasis. Freddy Peralta and the +107 price are highlighted again, solidifying the betting angle.
📊 Summary of Player and Team Statistics & Betting Value
Freddy Peralta
Mentioned As: Starting pitcher for Milwaukee.
Stats Not Explicitly Quoted: But implied to be in solid form worthy of a best bet selection.
Milwaukee Brewers
Recent Form: On a strong streak, closing in on the Cubs.
Early Season: Started poorly, swept by Yankees, lost early series.
Recent Pattern: No longer just stealing 1 game per series—now winning consistently.
Odds: +107 as of the recording. Risk of line movement toward Brewers becoming favorites.
New York Mets
Form: Labeled as terrible, with only recent highlight being a sweep in Pittsburgh.
Bullpen: Described as flawed.
Season Context: Overrated due to success against a weak early schedule.
Conclusion
Griffin Warner’s segment is a concise and passionate case for betting on the Milwaukee Brewers (+107) with Freddy Peralta starting against the New York Mets, driven by:
Contrasting team momentum
Weaknesses in the Mets’ bullpen and schedule
Current market pricing offering betting value
https://Pregame.com

Topics: MLB