Jun 3, 2025
·
Dave Essler
&
sleepyj
·
20 Views
RBC Canadian Open - Miss The Cut
This features a betting discussion between Sleepy J and Dave Essler about Wyndham Clark's potential performance at the RBC Canadian Open, with a focus on whether Clark will make the cut.
In-Depth Quote Analysis
[Sleepy J at 0:00 - 2:12]
Sleepy J begins by reaffirming his decision to wager on Wyndham Clark missing the cut at +175 odds. He elaborates extensively:
Clark's recent decline: Since the Masters, Wyndham Clark's performance has deteriorated, evidenced by his last four finishes:
56th place
50th place
63rd place
Missed cut
Sleepy J emphasizes that this is not typical for Clark, indicating a troubling trend in his game.
Technical inconsistency: Clark's game is unbalanced:
Sometimes his putter works while his irons fail.
At other times, his driving accuracy or distance is lacking.
This inconsistency across various aspects of his play contributes to his recent struggles.
Mental state and upcoming schedule: With a major tournament (U.S. Open) approaching the following week, Sleepy J speculates that Clark may already be mentally focused on that event, potentially impacting his motivation and focus at the RBC Canadian Open.
Tee time disadvantage: Clark is scheduled to tee off in the afternoon wave, which Sleepy J views as less favorable. He points out that Clark typically performs better with early morning tee times.
Unfamiliar course: The course is unfamiliar to Clark, adding another challenge to his potential performance.
Low pressure approach: Sleepy J theorizes that Clark might approach the tournament as a "scrimmage type round," using it to work on his game without stressing about results.
Market manipulation: He warns that betting markets might tempt bettors to wager on Clark making the cut by offering favorable odds, even though the data suggests he’s at risk of missing it.
"There's a course he doesn't know. He's teeing off early in the afternoon. He might just want to go ahead and try to get the hell out of dodge and maybe try to fix some things up just so he can go into next week at the U.S. Open, feeling a little bit more confident about what he's doing."
— Sleepy J (1:35 - 1:55)
[Dave Essler at 2:12 - 2:50]
Dave Essler supports Sleepy J's analysis:
He acknowledges that Wyndham Clark was previously one of their reliable picks for first-round performance but has since become inconsistent.
Essler agrees that the odds provide good value for wagering on Clark missing the cut.
Personal bias is noted: Essler is not a fan of Clark's emotional style on the course, suggesting it negatively impacts his performance.
"I'm thinking that that's really good value for Wyndham to miss the cut. And quite frankly, I'll be praying you win that, but because I'm not a Wyndham Clark fan... he's one of them. So I think that hurts him and hopefully for your bet it'll hurt him this week."
— Dave Essler (2:22 - 2:50)
[Sleepy J at 2:50 - 3:17]
Sleepy J elaborates on market behavior:
The odds are intentionally set to encourage casual bettors to wager on Clark making the cut by offering favorable prices on a big-name player.
He highlights that sportsbooks manipulate these lines knowing Clark’s recent poor form, making the "miss the cut" wager potentially more valuable.
"They want you to see a decent minus money price on a good guy that has a big name to go in and make the cut. That's what they want you to bet. They don't want you betting the side for him to go ahead and miss the cut."
— Sleepy J (3:03 - 3:13)
Player Statistics and Analysis
Wyndham Clark (as discussed)
Recent finishes: 56th, 50th, 63rd, MC (Missed Cut)
Performance Issues: Inconsistent irons, putter, driving accuracy, and distance.
Emotional demeanor: Potential liability under pressure.
Course familiarity: Limited or none at RBC Canadian Open.
Tee time: Afternoon wave — less optimal for his performance history.
Upcoming schedule: Likely focused on the following week's U.S. Open.
Team Statistics and Insights
The discussion does not include any team statistics, as it centers exclusively on Wyndham Clark’s individual performance and betting market dynamics.
Structure Summary
Speakers: Sleepy J, Dave Essler
Main Focus: Betting analysis on Wyndham Clark missing the cut at RBC Canadian Open.
Primary Argument: Poor recent form, technical inconsistencies, mental distractions, unfavorable tee time, unfamiliar course, and market betting behavior all point toward a higher risk of Clark missing the cut.
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