MLB Tuesday Best Bet From Griffin Warner on RJ Bell’s Dream Preview! #mlbpicks #mlbbets #dodgers

Jun 2, 2025 · Griffin Warner · 259 Views

MLB Tuesday Best Bet Breakdown — Griffin Warner on RJ Bell’s Dream Preview
Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner as featured in RJ Bell’s Dream Preview.

🕰️ [0:00 - 0:01] Munaf Manji Initiates Discussion
Speaker: Munaf Manji
Timestamp: 0:00 - 0:01
Munaf opens the segment by asking Griffin where his best bet will be placed for the day:
"Where are you taking us for your best bet?"
🕰️ [0:02 - 0:45] Griffin Warner Analyzes His Best Bet: Dodgers vs. Mets
Speaker: Griffin Warner
Timestamp: 0:02 - 0:45
Griffin selects the Los Angeles Dodgers -136 at home against the New York Mets as his best bet, citing both historical and pitching-based reasons.
Key Quote Analysis:
"Because I had such a great date back in Citi Field many, many moons ago with Clayton Kershaw, 11-0 in his career against the Mets. That's an incredible record."
Griffin highlights Kershaw’s perfect 11-0 career record against the Mets as a major factor, emphasizing Kershaw’s dominance against this opponent.
He frames this as a long-standing advantage for Kershaw, referencing both historical and personal narrative.
"The Mets have been bad while the Dodgers have been good for a long time, but even then, it doesn't take much to lose once."
Griffin acknowledges that while team trends favor the Dodgers, baseball’s variance means losses can happen unexpectedly.
"I am currently talking from about seven minutes from his hometown. Let's go with Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers, minus 136 at home in the New York Mets. I just think this price is too cheap."
He notes his personal proximity to Kershaw’s hometown, adding a conversational anecdote.
Griffin emphasizes that the odds (-136) seem undervalued given Kershaw's track record.
Player Statistics & Analysis:
Clayton Kershaw: 11-0 lifetime record vs. Mets — a perfect head-to-head stat that significantly influences Griffin’s bet.
Team Insights:
Dodgers: Historically strong.
Mets: Historically weaker compared to Dodgers, especially in the context of facing Kershaw.
"Tyler McGill has not shown that he can throw enough strikes, I think, to last deep in this game."
Griffin critiques Tyler McGill’s control issues, suggesting he may not last deep into the game.
Predicts heavy reliance on the Mets bullpen.

"So we're likely seeing a lot of the New York Mets pen, which limits how much better they might be than what's currently pitching in the Dodgers' end of the bullpen."
Griffin suggests that the Mets bullpen may not offer significant relief advantage, indirectly suggesting bullpen parity or a Dodgers advantage.

Player Statistics & Analysis:
Tyler McGill: Struggles with control ("has not shown that he can throw enough strikes").

Mets bullpen: Expected to be used heavily, diminishing any advantage.
🕰️ [0:45 - 1:09] Munaf Manji Reacts & Supports Griffin’s Pick
Speaker: Munaf Manji
Timestamp: 0:45 - 1:09
Munaf offers his endorsement of Griffin’s pick by adding context and validating the selection.
Key Quote Analysis:
"Yeah. I mean, this price really made me scratch my head. And again, I talked about the historical numbers with Clayton Kershaw."
Munaf agrees the odds seem surprisingly low, reinforcing Griffin's view that the betting price undervalues Kershaw’s historical dominance.
"He's looked very good in back-to-back appearances or starts for the Dodgers after the bad start he had against the Angels."
Notes Kershaw’s recent form: two strong outings following a poor performance against the Angels.
Suggests Kershaw has regained top form, increasing confidence in the pick.
"But again, when you have that offense backing, you always have a chance to win games, even if you did have a bad start."
Points to the Dodgers’ strong offensive lineup as a safety net that increases Kershaw’s win probability even if he struggles.

"So I couldn't talk you off of that one for the Dodgers."

Munaf fully supports Griffin’s recommendation.

Player Statistics & Analysis:
Clayton Kershaw: Two strong starts following one bad outing vs. Angels.

Team Insights:
Dodgers offense: Provides consistent scoring support, increasing overall win expectancy.

📊 Summary Table of Key Stats & Analysis
Player Statistic Insight
Clayton Kershaw 11-0 vs. Mets Historically dominant
Clayton Kershaw 2 good starts after 1 bad start vs. Angels Currently in strong form
Tyler McGill Struggles with control Likely short outing, heavy bullpen use
Dodgers Offense Strong backing Mitigates pitcher risk

Team Statistic Insight
Dodgers Historically strong vs. Mets Supported by offense and Kershaw
Mets Weaker historically Expected bullpen strain

🏁 Conclusion
Griffin Warner’s best bet is the Los Angeles Dodgers at -136 odds, citing Clayton Kershaw’s dominant 11-0 career record against the Mets, recent good form, and the Mets' vulnerability due to Tyler McGill’s control problems and bullpen exposure. Munaf Manji fully supports the pick, reinforcing confidence in Kershaw and the Dodgers offense as the decisive factors.

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Topics: MLB