Memorial Tournament Make/Miss the Cut Predictions from Dave Essler & Sleepy J at Pregame.com #golf

May 28, 2025 · Dave Essler & sleepyj · 8 Views

This detailed summary exclusively analyzes the transcript of a discussion between Dave Essler and Sleepy J from Pregame.com. Their dialogue focused on predictions for the Memorial Tournament, particularly evaluating which golfers might make or miss the cut. All information is timestamped and attributed directly to the speakers for clarity and insight.

🎙️ Transcript Breakdown with Speaker Quotes & Analysis
🕐 0:00 – 1:10 | Sleepy J on Lucas Glover Missing the Cut
"Lucas Glover to go ahead and miss the cut at plus 235... he's been absolutely terrible at this venue... seven cuts and 11 finishes outside the top 30."

Analysis:

Player Performance History: Glover’s track record at this tournament is overwhelmingly poor. He has missed the cut seven times and never placed within the top 30 except for his debut in 2005 (8th place).

Fatigue Factor: Sleepy J also cites concern over Glover’s recent schedule—four straight weeks of competitive play—raising doubts about his endurance at a tough venue.

Odds Insight: The odds (+235) indicate a valuable opportunity for bettors due to Glover’s unfavorable history.

🕐 1:10 – 3:07 | Dave Essler's Take on Tournament Structure & Value Picks
"He's minus 340 on DraftKings to make the cut... you probably got the better of that one."

Analysis:

Glover Bet Validation: Essler confirms that Sleepy J’s odds on Glover provide superior value compared to market prices, which significantly favor him making the cut.

Field Size and Cut Rules: The top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 strokes advance, making missed cuts statistically less likely unless performance is very poor.

Weather Conditions: Essler emphasizes that weather may hinder low scoring, potentially allowing players with +3 or +4 scores to advance.

"Harry Higgs is minus 140. Your boy Hadwin minus 175... Johnny Vegas is minus 225."

Player Stats:

Harry Higgs: Odds suggest a moderate likelihood of making the cut.

Adam Hadwin: Slightly more favored than Higgs.

Johnny Vegas: Among the safest bets in this range.

Strategy Advice:

Essler recommends moderate long shots to make the cut due to favorable math and low-risk cutoff in smaller fields.

🕐 3:08 – 3:41 | Sleepy J Estimates Field Size and Cut Math
"73 golfers... the cut was at the 56th guy... like give or take 15 guys get cut."

Tournament Stats:

Field size is estimated at 73, with approximately 15 players likely to be cut.

Confirms small cut margin, meaning most players will likely make the cut unless performance is notably poor.

📊 Player & Team Analysis
🔢 Player-Specific Stats
Lucas Glover: 7 missed cuts, only top finish was 8th place in 2005.

Harry Higgs: Make cut odds at -140.

Adam Hadwin: Make cut odds at -175.

Johnny Vegas: Strong make cut odds at -225.

🏌️ Tournament Structure Insights
Cut Line: Top 50 + ties + anyone within 10 strokes of lead.

Estimated field size: ~73 golfers.

Estimated cuts: ~15 players.

Elevated Event: Smaller field and higher stakes.

Weather Conditions: Could level the playing field, allowing higher scores to qualify.

✅ Conclusion
The dialogue between Sleepy J and Dave Essler offers detailed insight into betting angles for the Memorial Tournament. Sleepy J strongly supports betting against Lucas Glover due to his historically poor results and fatigue from continuous play. Essler reinforces this view with market odds and adds valuable strategic insights: small field size, lenient cut lines, and weather considerations all point toward betting on certain underdogs to make the cut. Players like Higgs, Hadwin, and Vegas are highlighted for those seeking safer plays, while Glover represents a high-value miss bet.

🧠 Summary Highlights
Lucas Glover Miss Pick: 7 prior cuts and poor course history justify Sleepy J’s miss prediction.

Odds Disparity: Glover at +235 (Sleepy J) vs -340 (market) reveals value.

Tournament Format: Top 50 + ties + 10-stroke rule makes cuts uncommon.

Weather Impact: Could lead to higher cut scores, aiding borderline players.

Moderate Bets: Players like Higgs (-140) and Hadwin (-175) offer solid make bets.

Vegas as Safe Pick: Johnny Vegas at -225 stands out for safe betting.

Cut Line Insight: ~15 golfers expected to be cut in a ~73-player field.

Strategic Emphasis: Math over gut feeling in smaller fields.

No Picks by Essler: Prefers to wait for value but offers direction.

Sleepy J’s Confidence: Uses recent play and history to justify picks.

#MemorialTournament
#PGA2025
#GolfBets
#LucasGlover
#GolfPredictions
#MakeTheCut
#MissTheCut
#SleepyJ
#DaveEssler
#GolfBettingTips
#DraftKingsPicks
#PGAInsights
#GolfAnalysis
#BettingOdds
#GolfStats

$25 of Free Picks!
https://pregame.com/gate/router.aspx?s=16&pid=434
No Obligation | No Credit Card Required
Becoming a member is Fast and Free

Topics: PGA