Memorial Tournament First Round Leader Predictions from Dave Essler & Sleepy J at Pregame.com #golf

May 28, 2025 · Dave Essler & sleepyj · 48 Views

Memorial Tournament First Round Leader Predictions 🎯
This article summarizes and analyzes the transcripted segment of a podcast from Pregame.com featuring golf analysts Dave Essler and Sleepy J, focusing on their predictions for first-round leaders at the Memorial Tournament. Each pick is backed by performance rationale, historical stats, and course conditions, particularly with an emphasis on early tee times due to anticipated weather advantages.

🎬 Segment-by-Segment Breakdown with Quotes and Analysis
⏱️ [0:00 - 2:03] Sleepy J’s First Round Leader Picks
🏌️ JJ Spahn @ 45 to 1

Quote: “JJ Spahn... is quickly becoming my nemesis... He did have a very good week there last week at the Charles Schwab finish fourth.”

Analysis: Sleepy J turns from fading Spahn to backing him, citing his fourth-place finish at Charles Schwab. The pick leans on his recent form and the early tee time advantage. Despite a mediocre record at the course, incremental improvement and strong momentum are key drivers.

Stats Highlighted: 4th place at Charles Schwab. No specific course stats, but trend-based observation of improved performance at this course.

🏌️ Denny McCarthy @ 45 to 1

Quote: “He has a second place finish here and a fifth... 32nd right now in the FedEx Cup... eighth place finish there at the PGA Championship.”

Analysis: McCarthy is favored due to both solid season form and course history. His ability to start hot on Thursdays, with past high placements at this course, underpins the bet.

Stats Highlighted:

2nd and 5th place finishes at the Memorial

8th at PGA Championship

Ranked 32nd in FedEx Cup

No missed cuts since last year

⏱️ [2:04 - 3:40] Dave Essler’s First Round Leader Picks
🏌️ Keegan Bradley @ 45 to 1

Quote: “He’s great on approach... He was eighth at the PGA... I don’t love his late tee time.”

Analysis: Essler hesitantly picks Bradley, emphasizing his approach play and top-10 PGA finish. The emotional disconnect with the player is acknowledged but overridden by rational betting.

Stats Highlighted: 8th at PGA Championship. Known for strong approach play, though current variance is high.

🏌️ Sungjae Im @ 50 to 1

Quote: “Superior putter and great around the greens... He did have last week off.”

Analysis: Though wary of his iron play, Essler bets on Im’s rest and elite scrambling skills to capitalize on the small greens at Muirfield Village. His recent fatigue from multiple events is a red flag mitigated by the recent break.

Stats Highlighted: Played 5–7 weeks in a row before the PGA (missed cut or poor finish implied). Known for putting and around-the-green play.

🏌️ Akshay Bhatia @ 45 to 1

Quote: “Two guys that go out early that I did take a piece of... was Akshay... obvious.”

Analysis: Akshay’s early tee time earns him a spot, though no further performance details are provided. Essler relies on implied course-fit and condition-based logic.

🏌️ JT Poston @ 45 to 1

Quote: “[Along with Akshay] JT Poston at 45 to 1.”

Analysis: Like Akshay, JT Poston is another early tee-time pick with the rationale based primarily on timing rather than performance metrics.

⏱️ [3:41 - 3:53] Closing Notes from Sleepy J
Quote: “There's four guys for you guys to consider... it's going to make the podcast a little bit more interesting... stay tuned.”

Analysis: Sleepy hints that more value picks are coming later in the podcast series. It reinforces that these are initial FRL (First Round Leader) plays, not full-field tournament bets.

📊 Team and Player Stats Summary
JJ Spahn: 4th at Charles Schwab, improving at Memorial, early starter.

Denny McCarthy: 2nd and 5th at Memorial, 8th at PGA Championship, 32nd in FedEx Cup.

Keegan Bradley: 8th at PGA, high approach skill, late starter.

Sungjae Im: Elite putting/scrambling, poor PGA showing due to fatigue, rested last week.

Akshay Bhatia & JT Poston: Both go out early; no performance stats shared, but likely chosen for conditions.

📌 Summary Points
Early Tee Times Critical: Most picks hinge on morning starts due to potential weather advantages.

JJ Spahn’s Redemption: Despite previous fade bets against him, his solid recent form earns him a pick.

McCarthy’s Consistency: Strong course history and recent high finishes make him a trusted day-one performer.

Bradley’s Approach Game: Analytical play trumps personal bias; his technical strengths are favored.

Sungjae’s Rest Advantage: Time off is expected to reinvigorate him, balancing earlier fatigue from a long playing streak.

Greens Matter: Small greens at Muirfield stress the importance of scrambling and putting—highlighting McCarthy and Im.

Variance Awareness: Picks like Bradley are flagged for performance volatility.
Low-risk Longshots: Akshay and Poston are speculative picks anchored in timing, not stats.
No Overemphasis on Rankings: Besides McCarthy’s FedEx position, world rankings are not cited.
Emotional Honesty: Essler and Sleepy openly admit personal biases but let stats guide final choices.

Https://pregame.com

Topics: PGA