Charles Schwab Make & Miss Cut #CharlesSchwabChallenge #PGA2025 #GolfBetting #DraftKings #FanDuel

May 20, 2025 · Dave Essler & sleepyj · 22 Views

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Charles Schwab Challenge: Make & Miss the Cut Wager Analysis
This transcript features a detailed conversation between Sleepy J and Dave Essler analyzing betting strategies for the Charles Schwab Challenge, specifically around players making or missing the cut. The speakers provide insight into their picks, risk factors, and player motivations, supported by current stats and context.

🎯 Quote Breakdown & Analysis (In Order)
[Sleepy J] (0:00 - 1:40)
“The wager is going to include Scheffler, Spieth, Berger, and Fleetwood… all to make the cut at -118.”

Quote Analysis: Sleepy J identifies a parlay bet involving the top four favorites—Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, and Tommy Fleetwood—all making the cut. Despite acknowledging the "square" nature of the pick (i.e., overly safe and popular), he argues that the field is weak post-major and these players can likely perform adequately even on their "C game." The price at -118 is noted as unusually good for such high-caliber players.

Insight: This reflects confidence in top-tier consistency but recognizes the risk—especially when odds look "too good to be true."

Betting Context: Limited availability of make/miss cut wagers at sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings drove the selection.

[Dave Essler] (1:41 - 3:05)
“That’s the only guy in your group I’d worry about is Spieth. He’s in Texas. He wants to do well.”

Quote Analysis: Essler expresses concern specifically about Jordan Spieth, citing his volatility. However, he acknowledges Spieth’s Texas roots and strong motivation to perform.

Insight: Even high-ranking players like Spieth can be unpredictable. Essler balances regional advantage against personal variance.

“I took Joel Damon to make the cut at -165… he’s 81st right now, and they’re only taking the top 70.”

Quote Analysis: Essler highlights a strategic bet on Joel Damon, despite poor recent form (three consecutive missed cuts). His reasoning rests on Damon's urgent need for FedEx Cup points to secure a top-70 finish.

Statistical Context: Damon previously finished second at the Punta Cana (a split-field event), but his putting remains a weak point.

Betting Rationale: The bet banks on external motivation and all-around play minus putting, suggesting either a rebound or further decline.

📊 Player Statistics and Analysis
Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Tommy Fleetwood:

All are considered favorites for the event.

Scheffler: Implied reliability at very short odds (-2500).

Spieth: Second favorite, local advantage but known variance.

Berger & Fleetwood: Included in a parlay based on perceived consistency and field weakness.

Joel Damon:

Ranked 81st in FedEx Cup.

Missed 3 consecutive cuts prior to the event.

2nd place at Punta Cana, showing potential in weaker fields.

Weakness: Putting, described as “horrible.”

🏌️‍♂️ Team Statistics and Insights
Field Strength: Described by Sleepy J as "watered down," especially following a major, implying higher chances for top-ranked players to advance with modest performance.

FedEx Cup Cutoff: Top 70 players move on—critical for mid-tier pros like Damon.

🗂️ Structured Summary
Wager Environment:

Limited make/miss cut bets available.

FanDuel offered a parlay bet on four top players to make the cut at -118.

DraftKings only offered "to make the cut" options.

Sleepy J’s Pick:

Bet: Scheffler, Spieth, Berger, Fleetwood to all make the cut.

Rationale: Top-tier quality in a weakened field.

Risk: Odds that seem "too good to be true."

Essler’s Take on Spieth:

Cautious endorsement: Potential variance despite motivation.

Location advantage in Texas is a plus.

Essler’s Pick – Joel Damon:

Bet: Damon to make the cut at -165.

Motivation: Needs points to break into FedEx top 70.

Form: Poor recent cuts, decent earlier finish.

Weakness: Putting issues.

Strategic Perspective:

Bets driven by a blend of field dynamics, player motivation, and statistical positioning.

Emphasis on understanding variance and not relying solely on odds.



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Topics: PGA