Charles Schwab Winner Predictions #CharlesSchwabChallenge #PGA2025 #GolfBetting #ScottyScheffler

May 20, 2025 · Dave Essler & sleepyj · 27 Views

Charles Schwab Winner Predictions – Transcript Summary and Analysis
This detailed summary analyzes the predictions and insights shared by [Sleepy J] and [Dave Essler] regarding the Charles Schwab Challenge, following a clear timeline, with speaker identifiers and timestamps. The focus is strictly on their conversation, without introducing outside knowledge.

🎯 [Sleepy J] (0:00 – 2:00) — Scotty Scheffler All the Way
Sleepy J firmly selects Scotty Scheffler at +250 odds as his winner. He refrains from diversifying his bets, citing several compelling reasons:

Past Success: Recently tipped Scotty to win the CJ Cup, which was successful.

Momentum: Scotty has won two consecutive events and is aiming for a third straight win.

Venue History: His past three finishes at this event are 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd, highlighting strong course form.

Lack of Rivals: He struggles to build cases for competitors like Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Daniel Berger, or Hideki Matsuyama.

“It's hard for me to go ahead and make a case for all the other guys… I just don't see it. Especially in Texas.” — Sleepy J

He sees this as a week to possibly explore margin-of-victory bets, expecting Scotty to dominate as he did in the CJ Cup and PGA.

🎯 [Dave Essler] (2:00 – 4:08) — Alternatives to Scotty
Dave Essler agrees with the logic behind picking Scotty but suggests three long-shot alternatives for those not backing the favorite:

🔹 Andrew Novak (60-1)
Recent Form: Missed cut last week due to struggles on the final three holes (“green mile”), which affected many players.

Previous Performance: Won a team event in New Orleans and had two 5th-place finishes in his last four individual events.

Course Experience: Played here twice before—so not a newcomer.

“He’s not popping his colonial cherry this week.” — Dave Essler

🔹 Robert MacIntyre (50-1)
Stats: Strong in all Strokes Gained metrics except putting.

Track Record: Two wins, plus 11th at API and 9th at TPC.

“It’s not like it isn’t in there somewhere.” — Dave Essler

🔹 Jacob Bridgman (90-1)
Consistency: Five top-15 finishes in his last 10 starts.

Strength: Superior putter.

Course Fit: Could benefit from a layout forgiving to errant tee shots.

“Bridgman is a superior putter. I think he just needs to not suck tee to green this week.” — Dave Essler

Dave humorously advises against going all-in on Scotty by “putting half of your mortgage,” but considers Novak, MacIntyre, and Bridgman as solid value plays.

🎯 [Sleepy J] (4:09 – 4:15) — Final Confirmation
Sleepy affirms he won’t go mortgage-deep but does intend to make a sizable bet on Scotty, showing confidence in his initial pick.

Conclusion
Sleepy J and Dave Essler provide a focused preview of the Charles Schwab Challenge, with a strong lean toward Scotty Scheffler due to current form, location, and course history. Sleepy offers a singular confident pick, while Dave provides depth by analyzing three under-the-radar players who show potential based on recent stats and course compatibility.

Key Takeaways
📍 Scotty Scheffler (+250): Back-to-back winner, aiming for third win, dominant Texas performer.

📍 Sleepy’s Stance: No other players have a strong enough case to bet against Scotty.

📍 Novak (60-1): Strong pre-miss cut form, team win, prior experience at Colonial.

📍 MacIntyre (50-1): Elite ball-striker lacking only in putting, strong top finishes recently.

📍 Bridgman (90-1): Excellent putter, five top-15s in last 10, course forgiving to tee errors.

📍 Course Context: Colonial may allow mistakes off the tee, favoring good approach and putting.

📍 Team Stats Reference: None provided explicitly, but player finishes serve as proxy insights.

📍 Sleepy’s Strategy: Margin bets on Scotty for bigger returns could be viable this week.

📍 Essler’s Picks: Designed for bettors avoiding chalk, offering upside at longer odds.

📍 Risk Commentary: Mortgage joke underscores risk awareness, adds humor to analysis.

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Topics: PGA