Byron Nelson - Make & Miss Cut

Apr 29, 2025 · Dave Essler & sleepyj · 15 Views

🎯 Byron Nelson “Make & Miss Cut” Betting Analysis
This transcript centers on a betting discussion for the Byron Nelson golf tournament, featuring two speakers—Sleepy J and Dave Essler—analyzing player and team prospects for making or missing the cut. Each quote includes time-stamped insights and player-specific statistics to back their positions.

🎬 Quote Analysis with Timestamps
🗣️ [Sleepy J] (0:00 - 1:23)
“Nate Lashley to go ahead and make the cut minus 105. I think this is mispriced by a good bit.”

Sleepy J opens with a strong conviction in Nate Lashley’s odds, labeling them as mispriced at -105 to make the cut. He supports this by emphasizing Lashley’s course familiarity—having competed here four times, a level of experience that’s rare among this field.

“He was 12th at the Valero and 18th at the Zurich… 27th at the Houston Open…”

These recent finishes across Texas-based tournaments strengthen his confidence. Notably:

12th at Valero Texas Open

18th at Zurich Classic

27th at Houston Open

“In the four trips… cut twice, but he has a 23rd and 17th place finish…”

This mixed history shows that while Lashley’s past includes two missed cuts, he also finished 23rd and 17th, showcasing his potential.

“He hasn’t been cut in his last five events.”

That consistent performance builds the case for a “make cut” bet.

“I actually see a top 40 at him at plus 200.”

He also suggests an alternative bet on Lashley finishing top 40 at +200, noting it's a “sneaky pick” worth considering.

🗣️ [Dave Essler] (1:23 - 2:16)
“Scotty’s only, and I say only, minus 1800 to make the cut… would you agree he’s probably gonna make the cut?”

Dave shifts focus to Scottie Scheffler, whose odds are -1800 to make the cut, suggesting near-certainty.

“You think Space will finish in the top 10? I do, he's a Texas boy.”

He points to Jordan Spieth—nicknamed “Space” here—betting on top 10 at +180, citing his Texas roots.

“I looked at parlay and all three… that plays plus 294.”

He proposes a three-leg parlay:

Scheffler to make the cut

Scheffler to finish top 10

Spieth to finish top 10
The combined parlay yields +294 odds.

“Not something I do an awful lot of, but… that’s how I’d probably do it.”

While acknowledging his usual betting style doesn’t involve parlays, he sees value here in combining high-confidence outcomes.

📊 Player Statistics & Analysis
Nate Lashley
Odds to Make Cut: -105

Recent Finishes:

12th at Valero Texas Open

18th at Zurich Classic

27th at Houston Open

Course History:

4 appearances

2 missed cuts

Best finishes: 17th & 23rd

Streak: 5 consecutive made cuts

Other Odds: Top 40 at +200

Scottie Scheffler
Odds to Make Cut: -1800

Top 10 Finish Odds: -300

Jordan Spieth
Top 10 Finish Odds: +180

Contextual Insight: Texas native, seen as having a home-course edge

🏌️‍♂️ Team Betting Insight
While this transcript focuses on individual performance, both speakers imply composite betting strategies (e.g., parlays) rather than singular team-level stats. The discussion revolves around individual player performances and how these can be strategically combined for higher returns in a parlay structure.

🧠 Key Takeaways
Sleepy J backs Nate Lashley to make the cut with detailed stats on course history and recent form.

Dave Essler trusts Scheffler and Spieth for top 10 finishes and suggests combining them in a high-value parlay.

Betting strategy hinges on recent consistency, regional familiarity, and calculated parlay formations.

Lashley’s Texas track record and non-miss streak position him as a smart underdog.

Scheffler's near-certainty to make the cut makes him a stable parlay anchor.

Spieth's Texas origin is a narrative-driven angle to boost confidence in top 10 performance.

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Topics: PGA