Mar 13, 2025
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Scott Seidenberg
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109 Views
Summary of "CBB Title Pick w/ Scott Seidenberg"
This discussion, led by Scott Seidenberg, RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers, focuses on predicting the NCAA basketball national champion using historical trends and statistical analysis. Seidenberg identifies key metrics that have defined past champions, narrows the list of contenders, and ultimately picks Houston as the 2024 NCAA champion based on guard play, three-point shooting, and coaching pedigree.
Key Points & Analysis (with Timestamps)
🔹 Historical Trends & Championship Metrics (0:00 - 1:18)
Scott Seidenberg highlights a widely circulated trend: 96% of national champions since 2001 had a top-21 KenPom offense, and 91% had a top-31 KenPom defense.
He refines this by considering only teams that were top 20 in both offense and defense over the last 20 years.
Finding: 18 of the last 20 champions met this criterion, with only two exceptions—2014 UConn and 2021 Baylor.
🔹 Identifying This Year’s Contenders (1:18 - 2:12)
Only four teams currently rank top 20 in both categories:
Auburn (#1 offense, #14 defense)
Duke (#2 offense, #4 defense)
Florida (#3 offense, #11 defense)
Houston (#9 offense, #2 defense)
🔹 Confirming KenPom's Role (2:28 - 3:35)
Seidenberg notes that every champion (except 2014 UConn) ranked top 10 overall in KenPom pre-tournament.
The four teams listed above are also the top four overall in KenPom.
🔹 The Coaching Factor (3:35 - 5:25)
Championship-winning teams usually have long-tenured, elite head coaches.
Hall of Fame-level coaches from past champions: Bill Self, Tony Bennett, Jay Wright, Roy Williams, Coach K, Rick Pitino, John Calipari, Billy Donovan.
Applying this to current teams:
Duke (John Scheyer) and Florida (Todd Golden) are ruled out due to their lack of proven coaching success.
Auburn (Bruce Pearl) and Houston (Kelvin Sampson) remain as contenders.
🔹 Final Decision: Houston Over Auburn (5:25 - 7:28)
Seidenberg chooses Houston as his national champion based on:
Veteran Leadership: Both teams’ best players are seniors.
Three-Point Shooting: Houston ranks 4th nationally, Auburn is 39th.
Guard Play: 12 of the last 20 Most Outstanding Players in the NCAA Tournament were guards.
Houston’s top scorer (LJ Cryer) is a guard.
Auburn’s top scorer (Jani Broome) is a forward.
📌 Final Pick: Houston to win the national championship (+750 odds).
Conclusion
Seidenberg builds a strong case for Houston as the best bet to win the NCAA tournament based on historical patterns, team rankings, coaching experience, and statistical advantages in guard play and three-point shooting. His methodology eliminates teams with weaker coaching resumes and those lacking key historical factors, leaving Houston as the most statistically sound pick for the title.
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