Cognizant Classic / Winner Predictions

Feb 25, 2025 · Dave Essler & sleepyj · 25 Views

Cognizant Classic Winner Predictions - Detailed Summary
[SleepyJ] (0:00 - 3:27)
SleepyJ begins by discussing his top picks for the Cognizant Classic, focusing on long hitters who can take advantage of the course’s characteristics.

Min Woo Lee (35 to 1)

Has played at this course twice before, finishing 26th in one appearance and 2nd last year.
Noted for his driving distance, which is expected to be a key advantage.
Has had a strong form in recent months, finishing in the top 25 in six of his last eight events.
Took last week off, indicating he might be well-rested for this event.
SleepyJ believes Lee has this tournament "circled" as one where he can excel, given his ability to set up strong second shots.
Cam Young (40 to 1)

Another long hitter with past success at this course, finishing 16th and 4th in previous visits.
His biggest weakness has been accuracy, but SleepyJ is optimistic that taking last week off helped him fine-tune this part of his game.
The betting line opened at 50 to 1 but has been bet down to 40 to 1, suggesting strong market support for Young.
Gary Woodland (60 to 1)

Ranked third in driving distance on the PGA Tour.
Has four top-10 finishes at this course (PGA National).
Despite missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational, Woodland has historically rebounded well from missed cuts.
SleepyJ acknowledges Woodland’s past health issues, including brain surgery, but believes he is playing well and should be considered a serious contender.
Final Picks:

Min Woo Lee (35 to 1)
Cam Young (40 to 1)
Gary Woodland (60 to 1)
[Dave Essler] (3:27 - 5:26)
Dave Essler shares his picks, partially agreeing with SleepyJ while offering additional insights.

Russell Henley (22 to 1, Top 10 at +260)

Played college golf at Georgia and is comfortable with southern courses.
Not a long hitter but is accurate off the tee, which Essler believes is more important given the course’s doglegs.
A strong putter, which could give him an advantage on the greens.
Billy Horschel (50 to 1)

SleepyJ criticized this pick, but Essler defends it by pointing out that Horschel excels in Florida-based tournaments.
In the last 36 rounds in Florida (minimum 9 tournaments), Horschel ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained overall.
Admits that Horschel’s recent form is inconsistent (missed 3 of his last 6 cuts) but sees value in the 50 to 1 odds.
Lucas Glover (50 to 1)

Statistically strong, ranking in the top 10 across all six key metrics Essler considered for this event.
Not a long hitter, but Essler doesn’t believe that will be a disadvantage here.
Feels that Glover’s overall stats this season are better than his results suggest, making him a sleeper pick.
Final Picks:

Russell Henley (22 to 1, Top 10 at +260)
Billy Horschel (50 to 1)
Lucas Glover (50 to 1)
Key Takeaways
Driving distance is a major factor, with Min Woo Lee, Cam Young, and Gary Woodland highlighted for their long hitting.
Course familiarity plays a role, as several picks (Henley, Horschel, Woodland) have had past success on similar tracks.
Recent form varies: Some players are picked based on strong recent performances (Min Woo Lee, Henley), while others are seen as bounce-back candidates (Woodland, Horschel).
Market movement is noteworthy: Cam Young’s odds moved from 50 to 1 to 40 to 1, indicating growing confidence from bettors.
Both analysts present different philosophies—SleepyJ leans toward power hitters, while Essler prioritizes accuracy and course fit.

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Topics: PGA