Super Bowl LIX Free Pick from Scott Seidenberg at Pregame.com #SuperBowl #flyeaglesfly #chiefs

Feb 8, 2025 · Scott Seidenberg · 80 Views

Super Bowl LIX Free Pick: Analysis from Scott Seidenberg at Pregame.com
This transcript captures a sports betting discussion about Super Bowl LIX, focusing on statistical trends and betting odds. Scott Seidenberg, RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers analyze the probability of a one-yard touchdown occurring, particularly given the Eagles' offensive style.

Key Betting Insight: Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards
🔹 Scott Seidenberg (0:00 - 0:29) introduces his bet: the shortest touchdown in the game will be under 1.5 yards (-170 odds). He supports this with historical data, noting that a one-yard touchdown has occurred in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls and 7 of the last 9. He highlights the Eagles' expertise in short-yardage plays, particularly their well-known "Tush Push" technique.

🔹 RJ Bell (0:29 - 0:32) raises a counterpoint, questioning whether Kansas City’s defense—having stopped Josh Allen—could do the same against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' offense.

🔹 Scott Seidenberg (0:33 - 0:35) dismisses this concern, emphasizing that the Eagles’ offensive line and Hurts' unique abilities differentiate them from the Bills.

Mathematical Breakdown of the Bet
🔹 Steve Fezzik (0:35 - 1:07) references King Yao's book, "Weighing the Odds," to explain the probability behind the bet. According to NFL averages, 15% of touchdowns are from 0-1 yards, while 85% are longer.

🔹 Mackenzie Rivers (1:07 - 1:10) provides additional betting insight: the total touchdowns over 5.5 is set at -120.

🔹 Steve Fezzik (1:10 - 1:52) continues his probability breakdown:

Assuming six total touchdowns, the chance of all being longer than one yard is 0.85⁶ (about 38.4%).
The Eagles strategically position themselves at the one-yard line, making them more likely than other teams to score short-yardage touchdowns.
He recalls an instance where Washington jumped offside three times against Philly, nearly leading to an automatic touchdown.
🔹 RJ Bell (1:52 - 1:52) briefly acknowledges this.

🔹 Steve Fezzik (1:52 - 2:00) humorously likens the situation to a WWF referee awarding a win after repeated violations.

🔹 Mackenzie Rivers (2:00 - 2:04) requests more data on how such short touchdowns have historically played out.

🔹 Steve Fezzik (2:04 - 2:13) stresses that other teams (like Jacksonville) might mess up a one-yard opportunity, but the Eagles will execute and score.

Multiple Ways to Reach the One-Yard Line
🔹 Scott Seidenberg (2:13 - 2:33) expands on how teams can find themselves at the one-yard line:

Stopped at the one-yard line after a run or pass.
Pass interference in the end zone, automatically placing the ball at the one.
This applies to both teams—not just the Eagles.
🔹 Steve Fezzik (2:33 - 2:35) supports the bet, calling it a "chalky chalk play" (a bet that heavily favors the expected outcome).

🔹 RJ Bell (2:36 - 2:49) concludes with an observation: the betting public has a natural bias toward betting "No" (expecting longer touchdowns), but the math favors "Yes" more than most people realize.

Final Takeaway
The discussion makes a strong case for betting on the shortest touchdown being under 1.5 yards, backed by:
✔️ Historical Super Bowl data
✔️ Statistical probabilities
✔️ The Eagles' proven short-yardage efficiency

This bet capitalizes on misconceptions in public betting trends, making it a compelling wager for Super Bowl LIX.

#SuperBowlLIX #NFLBetting #SportsBetting #Eagles #TushPush #SuperBowlPicks #BettingTips #NFLStats #GamblingInsights

Topics: NFL