Super Bowl LIX Player Prop w/ Steve Reider SuperBowlLIX 🏈#NFLBetting 📊#PlayerProps 🎯#DeAndreHopkins

Feb 8, 2025 · Steve Rieder · 59 Views

Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Analysis with Steve Reider
Analysis of DeAndre Hopkins' Super Bowl LIX Prop Bet
(Speaker: Steve Reider, Timestamp: 0:00 - 1:09)

Steve Reider discusses his player prop bet strategy for Super Bowl LIX, focusing on DeAndre Hopkins. His analysis suggests betting against Hopkins' performance, particularly on the under for 1.5 receptions (-140 odds).

Key Points and Quote Analysis:
Historical Performance and Betting Market Influence:

Reider highlights that Hopkins is a well-known player, making him an attractive bet for casual fans.
Quote Analysis: "DeAndre Hopkins is a household name. And with a lot of the recreational bettors coming in here on the weekend, I think that they're going to look to bet somebody over that they're familiar with."
Insight: Bettors may instinctively bet on well-known players exceeding expectations, leading to potential value in fading them.
Recent Playoff Performance of Hopkins:

Quote Analysis: "You've seen it so far this postseason, he's only had three targets, one reception for 11 yards."
Insight: Hopkins' limited involvement in the postseason suggests a diminished role in the Chiefs' offense.
Competition for Targets in Kansas City's Offense:

Quote Analysis: "There's so many mouths to feed with the Chiefs. You know, they get Hollywood Brown that's coming back from injury and Xavier Worthy has been taking off."
Insight: With players like Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy emerging as key targets, Hopkins may struggle to find opportunities.
Declining Skillset and Role in the Offense:

Quote Analysis: "I think DeAndre Hopkins is losing that ability to separate and certainly for the yak yards afterwards, I don't know if he has that upside."
Insight: Reider suggests that Hopkins’ ability to create separation and gain yards after the catch (YAC) is declining.
Playing Time Uncertainty:

Quote Analysis: "I'm not even sure how much he's going to play in the Super Bowl."
Insight: If Hopkins' snap count is uncertain, the under on his receptions becomes an even stronger play.
Conclusion:
Steve Reider makes a compelling argument for betting under 1.5 receptions (-140) for DeAndre Hopkins. His reasoning includes Hopkins' limited postseason usage, increased competition in the Chiefs' offense, and potential decline in separation ability. Furthermore, the likelihood of recreational bettors inflating his odds creates a valuable betting opportunity for those looking to fade the public.

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Topics: NFL