Devonta Smith Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Free Pick from Dave Essler at Pregame.com #superbowl #nfl

Feb 8, 2025 · Dave Essler · 122 Views

Summary of Devonta Smith Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Free Pick (Dave Essler, Pregame.com)
Speaker: Dave Essler (0:00 - 1:21)
Dave Essler shares his top player prop bet for Super Bowl LIX, focusing on Devonta Smith’s receiving yards. His bet is over 50.5 receiving yards, and he provides a statistical breakdown to support this pick.

Key Quote Analysis & Player Statistics
“Not only was he limited in the championship game by a hamstring, but A.J. Brown was the featured guy.”

Despite an injury affecting Smith’s performance in the Championship game, A.J. Brown dominated targets. However, Smith still managed 45 yards, demonstrating resilience even in a limited role.
“In playoffs, Smith has had 12 targets and 12 receptions.”

Smith’s perfect catch rate in the playoffs (100%) indicates high efficiency and reliability when targeted.
“Since November 3rd, he's had 67 targets, 55 catches, which translates to an 82% catch rate.”

A long-term perspective shows consistency, proving that Smith is a dependable receiver with a strong catch percentage (82%).
“If you look back at the 2023 Super Bowl, Smith had seven catches for 100 yards.”

Historical performance in a high-pressure game like the Super Bowl suggests he can deliver big plays when it matters most.
“While the Chiefs and all the other prognosticators are talking about A.J. Brown and how Dallas Goedert is going to be a factor... nobody seems to talk about Smith.”

The public narrative has overlooked Smith, which may lead to value in betting markets.
“If we want to talk about Brown, his catch rate during the season was 69%.”

Brown’s catch rate is lower than Smith’s regular-season catch rate of 82%, reinforcing Smith’s reliability.
“His catch rate in the playoffs is eight targets, nine catches, 50%.”

Brown’s playoff efficiency dropped significantly, suggesting that Smith may be a more consistent target in the postseason.
“Devonta Smith has them week in and week out, and Devonta Smith will have over 50 yards receiving this weekend.”

Conclusion: Based on Smith’s historical Super Bowl performance, seasonal consistency, and lack of attention from defenses, Essler believes Smith will exceed 50.5 yards.
Final Thoughts
Essler ends with responsible betting advice: “Good luck, guys. Don’t bet more than you should.” He encourages bettors to wager responsibly while enjoying the game.

Summary of Key Insights
Smith has been efficient and consistent, with an 82% catch rate since November 3rd.
Despite injury and A.J. Brown’s dominance in the Championship Game, Smith still managed 45 yards.
Historical performance in the 2023 Super Bowl (100 yards) suggests he can perform in big moments.
A.J. Brown’s playoff efficiency has dropped, making Smith an underrated target.
Public focus on other players (Brown, Goedert) means Smith could be overlooked, adding value to the over 50.5 yards bet.
Conclusion
Essler’s bet is backed by strong statistical evidence, including Smith’s historical performance, catch rate, and efficiency. If these trends hold, Smith is well-positioned to exceed 50.5 receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX.

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Topics: NFL