AJ Brown Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Free Pick from Steve Fezzik at pregame.com #superbowl #nfl

Feb 8, 2025 · Fezzik · 99 Views

AJ Brown Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Free Pick from Steve Fezzik at pregame.com
Speaker: Steve Fezzik
⏱ (0:00 - 0:51)

Steve Fezzik starts by expressing strong confidence in A.J. Brown, stating, "Yeah, in Brown we trust." He recommends betting on Brown’s receiving yards over 71.5, arguing that this line is set too low for a player of his caliber.

Fezzik explains that Brown’s injury history earlier in the season—both at the start of the year and later—led to a decrease in his usage, which affected his stats. He references two games in which Brown was virtually absent, with only three targets and 10 yards. However, he highlights that Brown was fully recovered in the most recent game and that quarterback Jalen Hurts was targeting him frequently.

Regarding the Eagles' passing game, Fezzik emphasizes its concentration on key players:

The team does not throw much to running backs.
The primary pass-catchers are A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
A key stat: The "number of guys to catch a pass" line is set at just 5.5, which is low compared to other teams where it can be 8 or 9.
Key Insights & Analysis
Betting Pick – A.J. Brown Over 71.5 Yards:
Fezzik believes this is a value play since Brown’s true performance potential is higher than this number.

Injury Impact & Market Undervaluation:
Brown’s seasonal statistics were depressed due to injuries, making his current betting line misleadingly low.

Eagles' Target Distribution:
The Eagles have a highly concentrated passing attack, which means Brown should receive a significant target share.

Quarterback Trust:
Hurts is now actively seeking Brown in key situations, making him a reliable option for big yardage.

This analysis supports the argument that A.J. Brown should exceed 71.5 receiving yards in the Super Bowl.

#AJBrown #SuperBowlLIX #NFLBetting #PlayerProps #Eagles #SportsBetting

Topics: Steve Fezzik, NFL