Sep 18, 2024
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Dave Essler
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391 Views
In this analysis, Dave Essler dives into his Week 3 NFL picks, focusing on the Arizona Cardinals as his standout choice. Essler offers detailed stats, key observations, and makes compelling arguments based on team and player performance. Let's break down his quotes, the key players, and the crucial game statistics to uncover why he believes Arizona has the edge over Detroit.
A Look at Goff's Leadership (00:00 - 00:27)
Dave Essler kicks things off by focusing on the Detroit Lions' quarterback, Jared Goff. He mentions that Goff's QBR was stronger with the Rams than it has been with Detroit, and that the quarterback’s performance is tightly tied to the team’s success. This sentiment highlights the importance of Goff's role in determining the Lions' fate in this matchup. Essler also mentions how, after their close shot at the Super Bowl, some were quick to place the Lions on a pedestal, but now, many are questioning if it was too early.
Insight: Goff’s inconsistency has been a problem. When he plays well, the team flourishes. When he doesn’t, it’s a rough ride for Detroit.
Goff’s Game-Winning Stats (00:28 - 00:43)
Essler then provides some striking statistics on Goff. Across 67 wins, Goff has thrown 130 touchdowns and only 30 interceptions. However, in his 51 losses, he has almost a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio, with 56 TDs to 55 picks.
Analysis: This is where Goff’s inconsistencies shine through. His numbers prove that when the team struggles, his performance dips significantly, making him a liability when the pressure is on.
Defensive Insights (00:44 - 01:53)
Essler shifts the focus to Arizona's defense and their ability to challenge even the best teams in the league. He recalls that the Cardinals managed to contain Buffalo, holding them to 350 yards of offense, and limited the Rams to 245 yards. Additionally, Essler lists the mobile quarterbacks—Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, and Geno Smith—who had success against the Lions last year. He points out that mobile quarterbacks like Arizona’s Kyler Murray tend to expose Detroit’s defensive weaknesses.
Key Stat: Arizona limited two strong offenses, Buffalo and the Rams, showcasing their defensive resilience.
The Kyler Murray Factor
Essler puts a strong emphasis on Kyler Murray’s mobility as a critical factor. Given how Detroit has struggled against running quarterbacks, Murray’s ability to extend plays could be the x-factor in this matchup.
Arizona’s History vs. Detroit
Essler makes a compelling comparison to Week 2 of the previous year, when the Cardinals, as 11.5-point underdogs, took down the Dallas Cowboys outright. While the Cardinals’ roster has changed since then, with Josh Dobbs gone and Marvin Harrison stepping in, Essler argues that Arizona’s ability to step up as underdogs remains intact.
Conclusion
Dave Essler’s best bet for NFL Week 3 is the Arizona Cardinals, citing Jared Goff’s inconsistent track record, Arizona’s defensive strength, and Kyler Murray’s mobility as key reasons. Despite the Lions’ perceived improvements, the matchup against a team like Arizona, which excels in challenging defensive scenarios, poses a significant threat. Essler predicts that the Cardinals can keep the game close and possibly even pull off a win.
Key Points:
🈠Goff’s Performance: Goff’s 67 wins contrast with his poor record in losses, highlighting his inconsistent leadership.
🈠Detroit’s Defense: Struggles against mobile quarterbacks like Kyler Murray present a vulnerability for the Lions.
🈠Arizona’s Defense: The Cardinals have shown their defensive prowess, limiting both Buffalo and the Rams to relatively low yardage.
🈠Running Quarterbacks: The Lions had difficulty against running QBs in 2023, a trend that could continue.
🈠Kyler Murray: Murray’s mobility could be the x-factor in Arizona's favor, giving them an edge over Detroit’s defense.
🈠Team History: Arizona has a history of upsetting favorites, as seen in their upset against the Cowboys last season.
🈠Comparative Stats: Arizona held strong offenses like Buffalo and the Rams to underwhelming yardage, proving their defensive resilience.
🈠Betting Context: Essler’s pick reflects his analysis of both team stats and betting history, making Arizona plus a field goal a smart pick.
🈠Roster Changes: While Arizona’s lineup has changed, their potential to upset remains strong.
🈠Final Call: Essler predicts a close game with the Cardinals having the potential to pull off the win or at least cover the spread.
Summary:
Essler’s Week 3 best bet focuses on the Arizona Cardinals, predicting a tight game against the Detroit Lions. He backs this pick with Goff’s track record, Arizona’s defensive resilience, and Kyler Murray’s ability to exploit Detroit’s defensive weaknesses. Arizona, known for stepping up as underdogs, is expected to keep it close or possibly upset the Lions entirely.
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Topics:
NFL