Aug 29, 2024
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Steve Reider give out his best NFL season long player prop best bet.
In a recent episode of the Pregame.com podcast, Steve Reider, known for his sharp sports betting insights, shared his top NFL season-long player prop bet for the upcoming season. His pick? Betting on veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen to go under 850 receiving yards. Let's explore why Steve is so confident in this bet, diving into the player dynamics, team changes, and market insights that support his decision.
Keenan Allen's Role in a Crowded Offense
Steve Reider opens the discussion by confidently stating, "Keenan Allen under 850 receiving yards. I really like this one a lot" (00:03). The reasoning behind this choice is rooted in the significant changes to Allen's team this season. The Los Angeles Chargers, with new quarterback Caleb Williams, are fielding a stronger and more diversified offense. Steve notes, "The total for DJ Moore receiving yards is 950. Roma Dunze 675. Keenan Allen's 850" (01:01). With multiple capable receivers, the opportunities for Allen to shine are likely to diminish.
Quarterback Transition: From Herbert to Williams
One of the key factors influencing this bet is the transition from star quarterback Justin Herbert to rookie Caleb Williams. Steve highlights the difference, saying, "He won't be as good as Herbert was last year... Herbert is an incredible receiver quarterback. He targeted him consistently throughout the year because he didn't have any other options" (01:19). With Williams still finding his footing in the NFL, it’s unlikely he’ll provide Allen with the same number of quality passes that Herbert did, further limiting Allen’s potential to reach 850 yards.
Age and Evolution in Allen's Career
At 32 years old and entering his 12th NFL season, Allen is no longer the primary offensive weapon he once was. Steve elaborates, "Keenan Allen is entering his 12th season at age 32... He could be the third option on the offense" (01:39). The combination of age, a crowded receiving corps, and a new quarterback suggests that Allen's role will continue to evolve, likely resulting in fewer yards.
Market Analysis: Betting Lines Discrepancy
Steve also brings a sharp market perspective to the table. By comparing betting lines across different sportsbooks, he identifies a potential opportunity. "BetOnline takes a bigger number than DraftKings does. So what does BetOnline have? They have 800. Caesars takes a good number 775. FanDuel significantly better than DraftKings 750. What is DraftKings listed as right now? 850 yards" (02:01). The higher line at DraftKings suggests an overestimation of Allen’s potential, making the under bet more appealing.
Conclusion
Steve Reider’s pick for Keenan Allen to go under 850 receiving yards is a well-reasoned bet grounded in an understanding of player dynamics, market movements, and statistical trends. With a rookie quarterback, an aging receiver, and a more competitive receiving corps, Allen faces significant challenges in surpassing 850 yards this season. For those looking to make a strategic season-long prop bet, Steve’s analysis offers a compelling argument that could pay off as the season progresses.
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Topics:
NFL