Expanded Summary of "College Basketball Best Bet from AJ Hoffman at Pregame.com"

Speaker: AJ Hoffman (0:00 - 1:04)

AJ Hoffman presents his best bet for the Big East Conference Tournament, selecting Xavier at +850 odds. He argues that the odds do not reflect Xavier’s current form, making them a high-value long-shot bet in a year where top teams are struggling.

Detailed Quote Analysis & Breakdown

1. Xavier’s Current Performance & Big East Landscape

"They're playing some of the best basketball in the Big East at this point."

• Xavier is in top form compared to other Big East teams.
• Their recent performances indicate they are peaking at the right time, a crucial factor in a conference tournament setting.

"It's a down Big East, so I don't think even the teams at the top are unbeatable."

• Hoffman emphasizes that the overall strength of the Big East is lower than usual.
• Traditionally dominant teams (UConn, Creighton, Marquette, Villanova) are either weaker or have underperformed this season.
• This increases the probability of an underdog like Xavier making a deep run.

2. Xavier’s Matchup Against Marquette

"Xavier plays Marquette in the second round. That matchup is already set. They've split the season series."

• Xavier has already proven they can compete with Marquette, having won one of their regular-season games.
• The familiarity from previous matchups helps in preparation, making it a winnable game for Xavier.

"Marquette's plus 550 to win the Big East. Xavier's plus 850 despite the fact Marquette has fallen off a cliff in the last two months while Xavier's playing their best basketball of the season."

• Hoffman highlights a discrepancy in betting odds between Marquette (+550) and Xavier (+850).
• Marquette’s decline in performance over the past two months suggests they may not be as strong as their odds imply.
• Meanwhile, Xavier’s improvement is not being properly valued, creating an opportunity for bettors.

3. Xavier’s Performance Against St. John’s

"They also played St. John's tough, and they lost both games. One of them was in overtime. They can hang with the Johnnies."

• Although Xavier lost both games to St. John’s, one of those losses came in overtime, indicating it was a close contest.
• This suggests that if they face St. John’s again in the tournament, the game could be tightly contested with a better outcome possible.

4. The Value in Betting on Xavier

"I like the number we're getting on them."

• Hoffman sees great value in the +850 line because the betting market has not properly adjusted for Xavier’s strong play.

"In a year where UConn is down, Creighton is down, Marquette is down, Villanova's basically out, I really think that you're just kind of trying to find the right long shot here, and Xavier is going to be that long shot for me."

• The Big East’s top teams are struggling, making this a prime opportunity for an underdog.
• With Villanova essentially out of contention, UConn, Creighton, and Marquette playing below expectations, the tournament field is wide open.
• Hoffman believes Xavier is the best long-shot pick, given their momentum and potential to upset higher-ranked teams.

"So give me Xavier to win the Big East plus 850."

• Final bet recommendation: Xavier to win the Big East Tournament at +850 odds.

Player & Team Statistics Analysis (From the Transcript)

• Xavier's Recent Form: One of the best-performing teams in the Big East Conference at the moment.
• Marquette’s Decline: Struggled in the past two months, despite having shorter odds (+550) than Xavier (+850).
• Close Games Against St. John’s: Lost both games but one in overtime, showing competitiveness.
• Big East Landscape: UConn, Creighton, Marquette are weaker, and Villanova is essentially out, making underdogs more viable.

Final Takeaways & Betting Insight

• Xavier at +850 offers significant betting value.
• Marquette’s decline and Xavier’s strong form make Xavier a legitimate contender in the tournament.
• The Big East's traditional powerhouses are underperforming, increasing the likelihood of an upset victory.
• Xavier has already played tough games against St. John’s and Marquette, proving they can compete at a high level.

Hoffman’s best bet is Xavier to win the Big East, as they provide the best combination of current form, favorable matchups, and high-value odds.