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WM Phoenix Open 2024: Expert Betting Picks, Predictions & Fantasy Strategy

WM Phoenix Open 2024: Expert Betting Picks, Predictions & Fantasy Strategy

Introduction

The WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is one of the most exciting stops on the PGA Tour, known for its rowdy atmosphere, iconic 16th hole, and deep competitive field. In this expert preview, we analyze key contenders, betting odds, and DFS picks, providing sharp insights for the upcoming tournament.

This guide includes:

  • Recap of Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • WM Phoenix Open favorites & betting analysis
  • Best bets & sleeper picks
  • DFS lineup strategy & first-round leader picks
  • Winning score prediction & final best bet

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Recap: Key Takeaways

The lead-up to WM Phoenix Open included an action-packed Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where Rory McIlroy put on a masterclass performance.

Trophy Rory McIlroy’s Dominance

  • Final Nine Holes: 5-under par
  • Birdies on Holes: 10, 12, and 15
  • Eagle on Hole 14 (Par 5)
  • Led the field in Driving Distance: 336 yards per drive
  • Top-10 in putting

Bulb Key Insight: McIlroy adjusted his strategy in the final round, favoring irons over the driver on shorter par-4s. This course management approach showcased his experience and adaptability.

Star Other Notable Performances

  • Scottie Scheffler (T-9) – Strong finish with a final-round 67.
  • Tom Kim (T-7)Struggled on par-5s, missing a podium finish due to costly mistakes.
  • Gary Woodland (T-22)Back-to-back top-25 finishes, showing improved ball striking.
  • Justin Thomas (T-48)Driving accuracy issues continue, a key concern for WM Phoenix Open.
  • Shane Lowry (2nd place)Five birdies in last eight holes, strong closing performance.

WM Phoenix Open 2024: Betting Preview & Picks

Trophy Top Contenders & Betting Analysis

Fire Scottie Scheffler (+305)

  • Two-time champion (2022, 2023) at TPC Scottsdale.
  • T-3 finish last year.
  • Putting improvements make him dangerous.
  • Verdict: No pre-tournament bet (odds too low), but watch for a live number.

Rotating light Justin Thomas (15:1)

  • Major issue: Driving accuracy.
  • Has never won at TPC Scottsdale.
  • Recent struggles off the tee make him a risky pick.
  • Verdict: Fade.

Dart Hideki Matsuyama (17:1)

  • Winner in 2016 & 2017.
  • Struggled with fairways in recent starts.
  • Playing his third straight tournament (fatigue factor).
  • Verdict: Avoid betting on Hideki this week.

Zap Sungjae Im (22:1)

  • Two top-10 finishes in past Phoenix Opens.
  • Below-average iron play in recent starts.
  • Has never been a true contender at this course.
  • Verdict: Pass.

Rocket Sam Burns (25:1)

  • Top-10 finishes in last two WM Phoenix Opens.
  • Lost strokes in approach play in four consecutive events.
  • Verdict: Fade due to poor iron play.

Thinking Tom Kim (33:1)

  • T-17 finish last year.
  • Slow play could be a major issue in Phoenix’s loud atmosphere.
  • Verdict: No value at 33:1—passing on Kim.

Moneybag Best Bets & Sleeper Picks

Trophy Matchup Bets

White check mark Rico Hoey over Thriston Lawrence (-106)

  • Hoey excels in total driving & putting on firm greens.
  • Lawrence struggles with distance and accuracy.
  • Best bet for head-to-head play.

Gem Top Outright Picks

Trophy Kurt Kitayama

  • Win: 66:1
  • Top-20: +240
  • T-8 last year at WM Phoenix Open.
  • Driving accuracy has improved.
  • Verdict: Excellent value pick.

Octagonal sign Sleeper Pick – Gary Woodland

  • Win: 115:1
  • Top-20: +350
  • Won WM Phoenix Open in 2018.
  • Improved putting & ball striking.
  • Verdict: Potential high-upside sleeper pick.

Bar chart Fantasy Picks & DFS Strategy

Moneybag DraftKings Lineup ($50K Budget)

1?? Kurt Kitayama ($8.9K)
2?? Luke Clanton ($8.3K)
3?? Si Woo Kim ($8K)
4?? Matt Fitzpatrick ($7.7K)
5?? Charlie Hoffman ($7.2K)
6?? Gary Woodland ($7.1K)


Golfer?‍?? PGA Tour Fantasy Lineup

White check mark Starters: Kitayama (Captain), Woodland, Clanton, Si Woo Kim.
Octagonal sign Bench: Hoffman, Fitzpatrick.


Loudspeaker Final Predictions & Best Bet

White check mark Winning Score Prediction: -18
White check mark Best Bet: Kurt Kitayama Top-20 (+240)
White check mark First-Round Leader Bet: Scottie Scheffler (Top-5 after Round 1) at +320


Pushpin Conclusion

The WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is shaping up to be one of the most exciting events of the season. Scottie Scheffler remains the favorite, but value picks like Kitayama and Woodland offer strong betting potential.

Key fades include Justin Thomas and Tom Kim due to driving accuracy & slow play concerns.

Next week, we shift focus to the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines.

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