
WM Phoenix Open 2024: Expert Betting Picks, Predictions & Fantasy Strategy
Introduction
The WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is one of the most exciting stops on the PGA Tour, known for its rowdy atmosphere, iconic 16th hole, and deep competitive field. In this expert preview, we analyze key contenders, betting odds, and DFS picks, providing sharp insights for the upcoming tournament.
This guide includes:
- Recap of Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- WM Phoenix Open favorites & betting analysis
- Best bets & sleeper picks
- DFS lineup strategy & first-round leader picks
- Winning score prediction & final best bet
Pebble Beach Pro-Am Recap: Key Takeaways
The lead-up to WM Phoenix Open included an action-packed Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where Rory McIlroy put on a masterclass performance.
Rory McIlroy’s Dominance
- Final Nine Holes: 5-under par
- Birdies on Holes: 10, 12, and 15
- Eagle on Hole 14 (Par 5)
- Led the field in Driving Distance: 336 yards per drive
- Top-10 in putting
Key Insight: McIlroy adjusted his strategy in the final round, favoring irons over the driver on shorter par-4s. This course management approach showcased his experience and adaptability.
Other Notable Performances
- Scottie Scheffler (T-9) – Strong finish with a final-round 67.
- Tom Kim (T-7) – Struggled on par-5s, missing a podium finish due to costly mistakes.
- Gary Woodland (T-22) – Back-to-back top-25 finishes, showing improved ball striking.
- Justin Thomas (T-48) – Driving accuracy issues continue, a key concern for WM Phoenix Open.
- Shane Lowry (2nd place) – Five birdies in last eight holes, strong closing performance.
WM Phoenix Open 2024: Betting Preview & Picks
Top Contenders & Betting Analysis
Scottie Scheffler (+305)
- Two-time champion (2022, 2023) at TPC Scottsdale.
- T-3 finish last year.
- Putting improvements make him dangerous.
- Verdict: No pre-tournament bet (odds too low), but watch for a live number.
Justin Thomas (15:1)
- Major issue: Driving accuracy.
- Has never won at TPC Scottsdale.
- Recent struggles off the tee make him a risky pick.
- Verdict: Fade.
Hideki Matsuyama (17:1)
- Winner in 2016 & 2017.
- Struggled with fairways in recent starts.
- Playing his third straight tournament (fatigue factor).
- Verdict: Avoid betting on Hideki this week.
Sungjae Im (22:1)
- Two top-10 finishes in past Phoenix Opens.
- Below-average iron play in recent starts.
- Has never been a true contender at this course.
- Verdict: Pass.
Sam Burns (25:1)
- Top-10 finishes in last two WM Phoenix Opens.
- Lost strokes in approach play in four consecutive events.
- Verdict: Fade due to poor iron play.
Tom Kim (33:1)
- T-17 finish last year.
- Slow play could be a major issue in Phoenix’s loud atmosphere.
- Verdict: No value at 33:1—passing on Kim.
Best Bets & Sleeper Picks
Matchup Bets
Rico Hoey over Thriston Lawrence (-106)
- Hoey excels in total driving & putting on firm greens.
- Lawrence struggles with distance and accuracy.
- Best bet for head-to-head play.
Top Outright Picks
Kurt Kitayama
- Win: 66:1
- Top-20: +240
- T-8 last year at WM Phoenix Open.
- Driving accuracy has improved.
- Verdict: Excellent value pick.
Sleeper Pick – Gary Woodland
- Win: 115:1
- Top-20: +350
- Won WM Phoenix Open in 2018.
- Improved putting & ball striking.
- Verdict: Potential high-upside sleeper pick.
Fantasy Picks & DFS Strategy
DraftKings Lineup ($50K Budget)
1?? Kurt Kitayama ($8.9K)
2?? Luke Clanton ($8.3K)
3?? Si Woo Kim ($8K)
4?? Matt Fitzpatrick ($7.7K)
5?? Charlie Hoffman ($7.2K)
6?? Gary Woodland ($7.1K)
??? PGA Tour Fantasy Lineup
Starters: Kitayama (Captain), Woodland, Clanton, Si Woo Kim.
Bench: Hoffman, Fitzpatrick.
Final Predictions & Best Bet
Winning Score Prediction: -18
Best Bet: Kurt Kitayama Top-20 (+240)
First-Round Leader Bet: Scottie Scheffler (Top-5 after Round 1) at +320
Conclusion
The WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is shaping up to be one of the most exciting events of the season. Scottie Scheffler remains the favorite, but value picks like Kitayama and Woodland offer strong betting potential.
Key fades include Justin Thomas and Tom Kim due to driving accuracy & slow play concerns.
Next week, we shift focus to the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines.