??? WM Phoenix Open Predictions: Expert Picks & Betting Insights 
The WM Phoenix Open is one of the most exciting events on the PGA Tour, known for its rowdy atmosphere and dramatic finishes. In this breakdown, we analyze first-round leader predictions, betting strategies, and top sleeper picks, based exclusively on expert insights from Dave Essler and SleepyJ.
First-Round Leader Betting Strategy
Betting on first-round leaders is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. The key factors influencing selections include:
Course history – Players with proven success at TPC Scottsdale.
Recent form – Golfers performing well in the last few events.
Early tee times – Avoiding wind and tougher course conditions in the afternoon.
Hot starts – Players known for low opening rounds.
Dave Essler’s Picks & Analysis
Scottie Scheffler (12 to 1) – The Safe Bet
- Key Stats: Finished T9 last week, no rounds over 70.
- Why Bet on Him?
- A consistent elite player who thrives in strong fields.
- At 12 to 1 odds, he only needs to lead once every 12 events to break even.
- His ball-striking ability suits TPC Scottsdale.
Betting Verdict: Top-tier choice with strong value.
Patrick Rodgers (80 to 1) – High-Risk, High-Reward
- Key Stats: Shot 65 in the final round here last year.
- Why Bet on Him?
- Great putter on flat greens—Phoenix’s true-rolling greens neutralize putting weaknesses.
- Hot and cold playstyle—Finished last Sunday with a 67, but also had a 75 mixed in.
- Capable of going low, making him a viable sleeper pick.
Betting Verdict: Worth a flyer for high-value bettors.
Tom Hoagie (70 to 1) – The Value Pick
- Key Stats: Elite in shots gained on approach, critical for TPC Scottsdale.
- Why Bet on Him?
- Best iron players often excel here, making his approach game crucial.
- Started both Hawaiian events with a 64, showing early-round dominance.
- His worst opening round this year is 69, proving consistency.
Betting Verdict: Undervalued; should be closer to 40 to 1.
SleepyJ’s Picks & Analysis
Justin Thomas (28 to 1) – The Consistent Contender
- Key Stats: Three top-3 finishes since the Tour Championship.
- Why Bet on Him?
- Six straight top-13 finishes, proving strong consistency.
- Elite tournament history—Phoenix suits his aggressive game.
- Early tee-off with young talents, giving him a psychological edge.
Betting Verdict: A safe play with winning potential.
JJ Spaun (60 to 1) – The Early Tee-Time Sleeper
- Key Stats: Best finish at Phoenix: 4th place.
- Why Bet on Him?
- Top 35 in 8 of his last 9 events, showing great form.
- Teeing off early, which could reduce course difficulty.
- His current form mirrors the year he finished 4th at Phoenix.
Betting Verdict: A sneaky value bet.
Final Betting Recommendations
Golfer |
Odds |
Key Strengths |
Concerns |
Scottie Scheffler |
12 to 1 |
Consistency, elite player |
Will his "off week" continue? |
Justin Thomas |
28 to 1 |
Top-3 finishes, dominant at Phoenix |
Can he handle early pressure? |
Tom Hoagie |
70 to 1 |
Top-tier approach game |
Overlooked by oddsmakers |
JJ Spaun |
60 to 1 |
Early tee-off, momentum |
Phoenix results are inconsistent |
Patrick Rodgers |
80 to 1 |
High-upside longshot |
Streaky performer |
? Key Takeaways
Best Elite Player Bet: Scottie Scheffler (12 to 1) – A consistent force in opening rounds.
Best Safe Bet: Justin Thomas (28 to 1) – Unmatched Phoenix consistency and top form.
Best Value Pick: Tom Hoagie (70 to 1) – Top-5 iron play, underrated by oddsmakers.
Best Sleeper: JJ Spaun (60 to 1) – Strong form, high odds, early tee time advantage.
Ultimate Longshot: Patrick Rodgers (80 to 1) – Capable of surprising if his putter gets hot.
Hashtags for Discussion
#WMPhoenixOpen
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#GolfBetting 
#FirstRoundLeader 
#PGAOdds 
#ScottieScheffler 
#JustinThomas 
#TomHoagie 
#JJSpaun 
#PatrickRodgers 