Wednesday night in the NBA I will have a free pick in the game between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks, which will take place at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game has a start time of 9:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have the Mavericks listed as 8.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 206.5.
Analysis: The Phoenix Suns have really played themselves out of the playoffs of late, as they come in having lost 6 of their last 7 games, including a bad 96-69 loss at Atlanta last night. Overall the Suns are 39-39, which includes a 17-21 mark on the road. The Suns have gone 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Suns have been a good offensive team this year, ranking 9th in scoring (102.9 ppg), 14th in shooting, 18th in 3 point shooting and 13th in FT shooting. Defensively the Suns have been poor this year, ranking 26th in points allowed (103.3 ppg), 18th in defensive FG% and 20th in 3 point defense.
The Dallas Mavericks are not playing good ball at the moment as they come in having lost 6 of their last 8 games, which includes back-to-back home losses to Houston and Golden state in their last 2 games. For the year Dallas is now 46-31 overall, including 25-14 at home. The Mavericks are pretty much locked in to the 7th seed in the West. Dallas has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest, but just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Mavericks have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 3rd in scoring (104.6 ppg), 6th in shooting, 13th in 3 point shooting and 18th in FT shooting. Defensively the Mavericks have not been so good this year, ranking 23rd in points allowed (101.7 ppg), 16th in defensive FG% and 27th in 3 point defense.
Pick: Going with the Under in this game. The Phoenix Suns are really struggling on offense right now as they have averaged just 87.8 pg in their last 6 games and they come off a game in which they scored just 69 point s at Atlanta. The Mavs are not a great defensive squad this year, but they should be able to ground the Suns weak attack in this one. Dallas will get their points here, but the Suns will not and that should keep this one from hitting 200 points.
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